Guys to Target Using Pitch Usage and Pitch Values

Last week I listed some guys to target and avoid in daily, salary-cap formats based on platoon splits. That’s just one factor to consider when picking a daily cap lineup, and a commenter mentioned another interesting factor worth considering:

This seemed like a great idea, so below I’ll be identifying the certain pitcher-hitter matchups to exploit in daily cap formats.

The first step was to figure out which pitchers throw a high percentage of a certain pitch. To do this I simply sorted by pitch percentage for all starters with at least 300 innings from 2010-2012. From there, I listed each pitcher’s pitch value per 100 pitches. As an example, the pitch values for four seamers below are listed in the column titled wFA/C. This was done to avoid recommending that you start hitters against pitchers who use a pitch a lot but who use it effectively.  An explanation of the pitch value statistic can be found here. The short version is that the number indicates the number of runs saved for each 100 pitches thrown. The only other thing you need to know is that zero is average; anything positive is above average and anything negative is below average.

To keep this post from being “unscrollably” long, I’ve decided only to look at four-seamers, sliders, curves, and changes. Below are the pitchers who use a pitch at a percentage that is at least one standard deviation above the mean and whose pitch value is below average. I’ve only listed starters that currently have a spot in a major league rotation. After that we’ll cover the hitters who hit certain pitches particularly well.

To determine which hitters perform better against certain pitches, I listed all batters with 750+ PA from 2010-2012 and then sorted according to runs created per 100 pitches for the four pitches discussed above. Unsurprisingly, stud hitters primarily topped the list for each pitch. The hitters who created runs per 100 pitches at a rate at least two standard deviations or more above the mean are listed below for each pitch. There is also a list for each pitch of all players who are currently owned in less than 100% of ESPN leagues who created runs per 100 pitches at a rate at least one standard deviation or more above the mean.

The basic idea is that you should pick the hitters listed below when they are facing pitchers listed in the corresponding tables above. This is just one factor to consider when picking salary cap lineups and should be considered along with other things such as platoon splits. But this should help you identify some players who can return some value in the right matchups.