Gary Sanchez Does New York City

Gary Sanchez wasn’t the most valuable catcher in 2016. He earned his owners just $8.60 per the FanGraphs Auction Calculator. He also posted a ludicrous .299/.379/.657 line with 20 home runs 34 runs and 42 RBI in just 229 plate appearances. Obviously, the late start limited his earning potential. If we extrapolate over 600 plate appearances, a fair expectation for a healthy Sanchez, he was on pace for 52 home runs, 89 runs, and 110 RBI. That’s comparable to a more powerful Nelson Cruz, and he was on the fringes of the top 10 fantasy hitters this year.

Sanchez wasn’t just magnificent among catchers, he was comparable to a top 10 talent for one-third of a season. Now what do we do?

This is FanGraphs. We know it’s erroneous to extrapolate partial season numbers over a full campaign. For one, regression is coming. It must be. Among qualified hitters, David Ortiz led the league with a .305 ISO. Sanchez tabbed a .358 ISO and a 40 percent HR/FB ratio.

Since 2005, (i.e. intentionally excluding Barry Bonds) nobody has posted a .358 or higher ISO over a full season. Jose Bautista came really close in 2010 with a .357 ISO. Sanchez’s HR/FB ratio also outpaced all qualified hitters over that period. Ryan Howard’s 39.5 percent HR/FB from his MVP 2006 season was the only one in the neighborhood (Howard also ranks second and fourth on that list). Sanchez is powerful, but is he the most prolific tater-masher of the last 11 years? No, it doesn’t pass a smell test.

Prepare for double-barreled regression in his .299 average and .376 OBP. Let’s just say Sanchez hits 30 home runs in 2017. That’s 22 long balls short of his 2016 pace which equals 37 points of batting average. So, .299 minus .037 equals a still solid .262 average.

Here comes the second barrel – a .317 BABIP. On the face of it, that’s not very far from league average. Taken alone, he’s not destined for BABIP regression. Well…let’s dig into his batted ball numbers. Before we do, one caveat to remember, we’re still dealing with a fairly small sample. However, his numbers are extreme enough that they’re believable. What I mean is that he’ll regress towards the mean, but the general statements will probably remain true.

Sanchez is a ground ball hitter with a low line drive rate. He had an above average infield fly rate which usually kills BABIPs. More importantly, he pulled 54 percent of balls in play. Only 15 percent of his contact went to the opposite field. In other words, he’s extremely shiftable. On the plus side, his 41.8 percent hard hit rate supports an elevated BABIP.

Our new Splits Tool let’s us take a peek under the hood at some interesting numbers. In 47 plate appearances when opponents shifted Sanchez, he hit .239 with a .304 slugging percentage. Strangely, teams didn’t shift him more as the scouting report improved. I suspect we’ll see a doubling of shifts next season.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Sanchez’s pull-heavy approach is inextricably linked with his home runs. Check out the spray chart.

Eighteen of 20 blasts went to left or center field. Five hugged the left field foul pole while another seven landed beyond the left field power alley. Sanchez could attempt to break the shift by spraying ground balls to the opposite field, but that will only further exacerbate his home run regression.

Despite the excellent rookie debut, Sanchez worked through contact issues in 2016. He wasn’t a particularly patient hitter in the minors yet he walked at a 10.5 percent rate in the majors. Pitchers tried to avoid his batHis 13 percent swinging strike rate tied him for 18th worst. That doesn’t mean Sanchez can’t remain productive with the whiffs – he tied with Kris Bryant.

Sanchez’s problem wasn’t within the strike zone where his contact rate was just two percentage points below average. He really struggled with pitches out of zone. His contact rate was 12 points below average, accounting for a huge chunk of his swinging strike rate. It’s a double edged sword. Not making contact outside of the strike zone is a good way to limit soft contact. It also leads to strikeouts.

When confronted with a hitter who whiffs frequently, I usually look for weaknesses against certain pitches. It appears we have a winner. While Sanchez hammered every pitch type, he posted a .292 average and .375 slugging percentage against 141 curve balls (24 in play). By comparison, his second worst pitch was the change up. He saw 99 and tallied a .227 average, .546 slug, and two home runs (22 in play). No other pitch besides the knuckler (he only saw 12) had below a .600 slug. In other words, he mashed everything.

With samples this small, we can’t be confident that Sanchez actually has trouble with curve balls. However, I expect to see him challenged early and often with benders in 2017. Sanchez also ran into trouble in September. Over the second half of his two month season, he hit .225/.314/.520. The power remained largely intact, but his strikeout rate spiked to just under 30 percent.

Parting Thoughts

For Sanchez, it’s so obvious regression is on the way. In fact, we already caught a glimpse of it in September. However, I still see a hitter capable of adjustments and extremely loud contact. Furthermore, with the help of the DH-slot, he’s likely to accrue between 550 and 650 plate appearances with catcher eligibility. Even though I anticipate a batting average between .230 and .240 with 30 or fewer home runs, I consider Sanchez to easily rank as the third best catcher for 2017.

The downside is useful – something like the $10 produced by Brian McCann. The median is a near-exact match for Evan Gattis‘ $17. The upside scenario, in which he ignores most of my concerns, includes massive four category production and around $30 of value. And while nobody should draft Sanchez for his base running, I anticipate about five stolen bases. It’s better than nothing.

The hype train is liable to run out of control. A third round ADP seems possible. If that proves to be the case, I may target a known quantity like Gattis several rounds later.