Fun With Tiny Sample Sizes — Pitcher Edition 2026

Yesterday, I shared some of the fun tiny sample size performances among the batter population. Now let’s flip over to pitchers. Unfortunately, the pitching side is going to be a little less fun because not every starter has even made a start yet. Let’s see what we can come up with.

Your current average four-seam fastball velocity leader is José Soriano, at 99.1 MPH. That’s 1.2 MPH higher than last year and 0.2 MPH higher than his previous career high mark in 2023. What might be more interesting though is that he’s typically a sinkerballer and groundball beast. However, he has mostly reduced his sinker usage in favor of the four-seamer, and his sinker is only up 0.7 MPH. The lower sinker rate didn’t affect his GB% though, as he still generated a 69.2% mark during his first start.

While Soriano is close to also leading baseball’s starters in sinker velocity, it’s actually Cam Schlittler who takes the crown here, with his already elite velocities up across the board. He has also done the reverse Soriano in his first start, swapping out four-seamer for sinkers. Also like Soriano, it didn’t make a difference to his batted ball profile, as he actually allowed a higher percentage of fly balls than he did last year.

Bryan Woo be like “my fastball is so darn good, why bother throwing any of my other pitches”? He threw his four-seamer 71.1% of the time in his first start, leading baseball in four-seam percentage. That compares to just 47.3% last year. The increased usage was at the expense of his sinker and slider.

Max Meyer was the anti-Woo, instead throwing his slider a whopping 53.1% of the time. Surprisingly, that’s only 6.3% higher than last year! And why not throw it as often as possible, considering it’s his only pitch with a double digit SwStk% over his career.

Will Warren’s four-seam fastball is the current champion of Stuff+, handily beating out Tarik Skubal. It was up 1.4 MPH from last year and could be an early signal of an impending breakout. Do the Yankees go to a six man rotation if he’s in the midst of one once they get back Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole?

I wouldn’t be rushing to pick up Michael McGreevy after his six shutout innings. He recorded the league’s worst four-seamer Stuff+ with his velocity down two miles per hour and generated a measly 5.2% SwStr%. If he was picked up in your league and you were upset you missed out on a potential breakout — don’t worry, he’ll likely be back in the free agent pool within the next couple of weeks.

He only threw it 15.1% of the time, but my gosh, Logan Gilbert’s splitter was FIRE, recording a 175 Stuff+. That’s the highest Stuff+ of any pitch so far. Oh, and he’s also got the highest changeup Stuff+ with a 144 mark.

Right behind Gilbert’s splitter for highest pitch Stuff+ is Framber Valdez‘s slider at 174. It’s too bad he threw it just 1.2% of the time! He’s been in single digits each year since 2023 and its usage has declined each season. That’s shocking considering the pitch sports a career 116 Stuff+, his second highest mark. Should he throw it more often? Or perhaps it’ll lose its effectiveness with higher usage. But wait…there’s more! Valdez’s curveball also ranks second in Stuff+ at 156, barely behind Freddy Peralta’s 157 mark. AND, his changeup also ranks second in Stuff+ with a 141 mark. With that kind of stuff, one wonders how he managed just a 12% SwStr% and 20% strikeout rate in his first start.

For those on the Cade Cavalli breakout bandwagon, he ranked second with a 147 slider Stuff+. He’s going to crush his strikeout rate projections since they clearly overweighted his depressed 2025 mark.

So based on the above, it’s no surprise that Valdez tops all starters right now with a crazy 137 Stuff+. But do you know who’s second? Taj Bradley! His worst pitch by Stuff+ was still a 123. His four-seam velocity was up 1.2 MPH and he threw his splitter nearly double the rate as last year, at the expense of his four-seamer and cutter. He’s always had above average stuff, but it’s seemingly all about his Location+, which has never topped 97 and has sat at just 90 and 93 the previous two seasons. In his first start, that didn’t change, as it was just 85. So Location+ is extremely random from start to start, so it doesn’t mean a whole lot he didn’t have it then. The real takeaway is the increased velocity, providing hope he’ll at least be able to replicate his 2024, or perhaps better.

If you’re curious, Cole Ragans of all pitchers posted the lowest Location+ at just 75. His four-seam velocity was also down a bit and Stuff+ below his last three seasons. I was really hoping to roster him at least once, fully expecting a discount after a disappointing and injury shortened season with a 4.67 ERA. That didn’t happen. So I own him nowhere, and we’ll have to see how these metrics trend from the sideline.

The top of the Pitching+ leaderboard is mostly the usual suspects, but the man in third is…Reid Detmers! Returning to the starting rotation after a shocking move to the bullpen last year, his velocity was back to his starter years, but his pitch mix shifted. He threw his slider more than ever before at the expense of his curveball. Given that Stuff+ thinks the slider is his best pitch, throwing it even more seems to make sense.

The worst pitcher by Stuff+ is no other than…Michael King?! His 74 mark is shockingly low, though it’s mostly driven by a 78 Location+. That said, his Stuff+ was also his lowest since 2020 at just 94. His velocity is actually up slightly compared to the last 2 years so I wouldn’t worry much if I were an owner.

Continue tracking pitch velocity, Stuff+, and Pitching+ advancers and decliners with the Performance Intelligence platform at ProjectingX.com.