Fun With Tiny Sample Sizes — Batter Edition 2026

Quick note before we dive into tiny samples: I recently launched ProjectingX IQ, which is now focused on in-season edge by identifying real skill changes and separating signal from noise as the season unfolds. If you want to see which players are actually improving (or quietly regressing) before the results catch up, you can learn more at ProjectingX.com

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. Though no actionable advice may come from taking a plunge into the icy tiny sample size waters, it’s still fun to swim around and explore what’s happening. This is an annual ritual of mine since it’s only this early that a player can have a wOBA and xwOBA over 1.000, which is totes super fun.

Is there really a hitter with a wOBA and xwOBA over 1.000?! Indeed there is and you may have already guessed or known his name. It’s Shea BangLangeliers, who has opened the season a ridiculous 5-for-8, with three of those hits going for home runs. We know he owns big power, but I think the biggest question here is how much of last year’s strikeout rate improvement he holds onto.

Not only will that go a long way into determining whether he knocks 30+ homers again, but also whether he delivers positive value in batting average or is a drain like he was in both 2023 and 2024. Given Cal Raleigh’s frosty start, I’m curious how many fantasy owners are thinking that Langeliers is now the top catcher.

Speaking of Raleigh, he has recorded the second highest strikeout rate so far at 69.2%. That’s nine strikeouts in 13 PAs! Interestingly, he’s also posted a 15.4% walk rate, so 11 of his 13 PAs have ended in either a walk or strikeout. It’s too bad he hasn’t homered yet, or he would have been the epitome of a three true outcomes hitter so far. Obviously, we all expected some degree of regression after last year’s historical season. But how slow a start does he need to get off to before his owners begin to worry?

Ya know who the Major League WAR leader is? It’s not Langeliers, as he’s tied for second. It’s none other than…Mike Trout! It’s not just the two home runs in 15 PAs or the .556 batting average, but he has also walked six times already for a hilarious 40% walk rate, pushing his OBP to an absurd .733. He has even stolen a base already, already reaching half his total in all of last season! I really wanted to bet on a bounceback season from Trout and did manage to draft him surprisingly late in LABR Mixed, but he was more expensive than I had hoped in my other leagues, so I had settle for just one share. So far so good, let’s hope he makes it through April healthy.

HA! That’s the sound of Jorge Polanco and Junior Caminero laughing at the thought of Trout’s 40% walk rate being hilariously high. That’s because the pair have actually posted an even higher 50% walk rate! Sure, they come in just 10 PAs, but it’s pretty significant considering both recorded single digit marks last year. Caminero, in particular, was well below average, so this could be an early signal of a real step forward in plate patience. Or, of course, it could also mean that pitchers are simply throwing him less strikes given the weak hitters behind him.

Sure enough, his Zone% has dropped from 49% last year to just 36% this year. Whether that’s due to random variance and/or bad pitching or pitchers actively pitching around him, I don’t know. But it’s possible we see a significantly higher walk rate from him this year, which would be a blessing in OBP formats.

Both Matt Olson and Jake Burger belong to the 1.000 BABIP club. However, they have struck out so much that even a perfect BABIP means just three hits for Olson and five for Burger. Funny considering both own career BABIPs just below the league average.

Half of Luke Raley and Carson Benge’s balls in play have been barrels. That’s definitely exciting for Benge owners given that he posted just a 13.2% HR/FB rate and .190 ISO in the minors last year. At age 23, it’s certainly possible he’s experiencing a power spike, but it’ll take more than eight PAs to convince me!

Think Chase Meidroth’s 1.167 SLG is flukey? You’re right, but not for the reason you think — his xSLG actually sits at 1.940! That’s the highest mark in baseball right now. I’m also amused seeing the fourth ranked xSLG, Sal Frelick.

It’s been just four swings, but Denzel Clarke ranks third in Bat Speed, which is up a whopping 5.1 MPH. He obviously isn’t going to keep that up, but his appearance near the top serves as a reminder that he’s not just a speedy elite defender. He has posted HR/FB rates in the upper teens and low 20% range in the lower levels of the minors, plus a 115.2 maxEV at Triple-A last year and a 113.4 MPH mark with the Athletics during his debut. The bat looks way more intriguing than the projections are giving him credit for.

Cam Smith posted a 74.5 MPH Bat Speed last year and is up to 77.2 MPH this year in 17 swings. Last year was already well above average and this year so far it’s elite. So it’s hard to believe he mustered just a 9.6% HR/FB rate and .122 ISO last season. With limited minor league experience, it’s really hard to get a read on his potential outcomes. But his Bat Speed and last year’s maxEV scream a power surge is coming at some point.

Yikes, it wasn’t outlandish to chalk up Mookie Betts‘ disappointing overall season and power output last year to an illness that caused him to lose nearly 15 pounds in March. So he made for an interesting “buy low” this year under the assumption that a healthier, full-weight Betts would recover some of his lost power. But his Bat Speed, which was already below average, currently ranks eighth worst, down 3.3 MPH. With the stolen base down to single digits last year for the first time in a full season, he’s far more reliant on his home run total than ever before to deliver the fantasy goods. Don’t panic just yet, but monitor.

Quick, name 100 hitters who might actually benefit from hitting 100% of their balls in play in the air. Was Mauricio Dubón one of those 100 names? I didn’t think so. He’s hit all four of his balls in play in the air, which sounds like a bad strategy for a guy that owns a career 6.4% HR/FB rate. On the other hand, I do want to see what an 83.3% FB% can do at Coors Field and perhaps TJ Rumfield will give us that opportunity.

Quick, name 100 hitters who might actually benefit from hitting 100% of their balls in play on the ground. Okay, so there probably aren’t 100 players that are fast with limited power who would actually benefit from such worm-killing. But Nick Kurtz is certainly not one of the hitters you would expect to benefit! Oh, ummm, he’s only put one ball in play, and that went for a grounder. Oops, that’s more like a microscopic sample size.