Freshmen Report: Osuna, Sano, Smith, Taylor
Today at the Freshmen Report we’re taking a look at two young closers and a couple of powerful bats with contact issues.
Roberto Osuna, RHP, Blue Jays: The Jays took a huge gamble with Osuna (and the recently departed Miguel Castro) at the beginning of the year when they jumped the two young arms from A-ball directly into the big league bullpen. The 20-year-old Mexico native has flummoxed veteran hitters with his mid-90s heat, outstanding changeup and above-average command/control He’s also been unflappable — especially given his age and amount of pro experience — often looking like a veteran on the mound in high-leverage situations. Osuna slowly worked his way into the closer’s role on the club and has been one of the anchors in the new-look bullpen, which has gone from one of the worst in the Majors to one of the best. One thing to watch as the Jays fight for life in the post season is his innings count; he’s already at a career high.
Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins: Speaking of players that look like veterans, Sano has made a seamless transition from the minors to the majors. Just 22, his assimilation has been all the more impressive when you consider that he missed all of 2014 due to a serious injury. In 41 big league games, he has a .961 OPS and has slugged 10 home runs. Sano has been everything the Rangers probably hoped Joey Gallo would be when he was called up earlier this summer — although the Rangers prospect has more defensive value. Like Gallo, strikeouts are an issue for the Twins rookie who has whiffed 34.7% of the time (although he’s offset that, to a degree, with a walk rate of almost 16%). It will be interesting to see what the Twins do with Joe Mauer and Sano in future years. The veteran former catcher has moved to first base but advanced metrics don’t love his defence and he’s also a below average hitter at his new position. The freshman may not be an upgrade at defence but he’d certainly be a more productive hitter; still, it’s almost impossible to imagine Mauer being bumped from the Twins’ lineup despite his growing irrelevance.
Carson Smith, RHP, Mariners: A mostly unheralded prospect and former eighth round draft pick, Smith has found his niche in the Mariners’ bullpen. His combination of velo/strikeout ability and ground-ball tendencies make him a formidable foe in high-leverage situations. His allowed just 35 hits in 50.1 innings; his only real kryptonite is the free pass (17 this year) but it’s hardly been lethal. Smith, 25, has turned Fernando Rodney (who opened the year as the closer and saved 48 games last year) into an expensive set-up man and the organization will certainly allow the veteran to walk via free agency at the end of the year knowing the closer’s role is in good hands.
Michael Taylor, CF, Nationals: Taylor is probably the closest comp to Mike Cameron that we’ve seen yet… He offers speed, defence and raw pop (check out the video of his home run from Aug. 21). Unfortunately, he also comes with massive swing-and-miss rates and low batting/on-base averages. He’s shown enough value to allow both Nate McLouth and Denard Span depart as free agents and allow the organization to use those massive savings to improve other areas of the club (or fill holes from other exiting free agents). Even with his massive offensive struggles, Taylor has been worth almost two wins based solely on his defence — which no doubt helps the starters on the mound, whom the Nationals have heavily invested in.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Marc -is Carlos Gomez a better comp for Taylor than Cameron, especially at age 24?
MC 1997- 446 PA, 14 HR, .349 wOBA, .259 /.346 / .443, 23 SB, 18.5 Def.
MT 2015- 389 PA, 11 HR, .284 wOBA, .240 /.286 / .378, 15 SB, 16.1 Def.
CG 2010- 318 PA, 5 HR, .292 wOBA, .247/ .298 / .357, 18 SB, 3.5 Def.
Gomez’s power developed a little later, as did his best D. 4+ Ks for every walk, while Taylor is 5:1 and Cameron was <2:1.
It’s extremely unlikely his offense will turn out like Gomez.
I see them as the same type of player. There are a number of ways he pans out, most of them are pretty solid. Eric Byrns is another example of the huge ceiling (even if Byrnes only did it for a season or two).
Cameron is just the classic example of Power/Speed/Good CF combo. If it clicks there is an above average player with All Star appearances when he is on a hot streak, and terrible when things are not clicking (look at another example of this type of hitter- Melvin Upton- former all star than can no longer make any contact).
At this point, He looks exactly like the player the nats traded to give him more playing time- Souza (only souza is a little more power, less speed and less D). I think Taylor is the player that makes that trade all the better. Souza was an odd man out to the nats, and ended up getting them a mid rotation starter and a blue chip SS prospect (who was just called up today)