Four Outfielders: Simpson, Adell, Rafaela, & Kwan
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Previous Outfield Reviews
I’m examining outfielders starting around 150 ADP. A few guys have moved, so a few went early in recent drafts.
Chandler Simpson (143 ADP)
Simpson hits the ball on the ground and runs immediately to first base. And then steals multiple bases. That’s it. Even with his speed, he only had 15 doubles and three triples last season.
In Roto, no one is more league-specific than Simpson. He’s great at stealing bases (63 total last year) and providing a decent batting average (.295 AVG). But he’s a negative contributor in home runs (0) and RBI (26). Depending on where he bats in the lineup, he could be a source of Runs.
The 0 HR is going to be hard to make up. Even in Billy Hamilton’s heyday, he averaged 4 HR per season. A fantasy team is going to have to be stacked with power to take a complete zero. I can’t find any batted ball intent or statement that he wants to hit homers. If he ever hits one, it’ll be an inside-the-parker.
Another issue with Simpson is that he’s barely a replacement-level player. After being in the majors for just over a month, he was demoted back to AAA after posting a .632 OPS. When he returned in June, he had a .687 OPS over the rest of the season.
I think it would be interesting to throw him out early in an auction when teams don’t know if they need speed or not. He could be added cheaply and be a bench streamer.
Final Take: Only a narrow roto build will fully utilize Chandler Simpson’s skills. He does feel like a corrective action if a team misses on steals and needs to catch up.
Jo Adell (145 ADP)
In 2025, the 26-year-old Adell posted a career-high 37 HR with 17% Barrel%. The home runs seem to be in line with his 36.4 xHR from Baseball Savant. The reason for the improvement started with a career-best contact (74% Contact%) and power (50% HardHit%, 17% Barrel%, and 91.7 mph avgEV) metrics. He was making more solid contact with just a bit more bat speed. My batted ball comps had him hitting between 25 HR and 33 HR. His Steamer600 puts him at 34 HR. I’d not be surprised to see some downward homerun regression.
The higher Contact% helped boost his .207 AVG from the previous two seasons to a .236 AVG this past year. I could see it going a bit higher if he hit his career .272 BABIP. After running wild with the other Angels in 2024, his steals dropped from 15 SB to 5 SB. Projections have his stolen bases near 10. I’d back off those to mid single digits.
Over the last five regular seasons, Adell has gone over 575 PA once (2025), with the next highest being 451 PA (2024). Playing time could be a concern.
Final Take: Jo Adell may have improved his plate discipline enough to be a consistent home run threat.
Ceddanne Rafaela (153 ADP)
In his first two seasons, Rafaela’s stats have been consistent.
Season: PA, AVG, HR, SB
2024: 571, .246, 15, 19
2025: 587, .249, 16, 20
Hidden in the consistency was a 20-point drop in BABIP that hid some major improvements. His Contact% went from 69.6% to 75.4%. Strikeout rate from 26% to 20%. Walk rate from 3% to 5%. Average Exit Velocity from 86.6 mph to 88.3 mph. And he set a new max Exit Velocity at 112 mph.
When I run my batted ball comps, he projected for a .640 OPS and 17 HR in 2024. The same system had him with a .715 OPS and 19 HR in 2025.
Part of his struggles might have been from a hit-by-pitch on August 3rd. Over the next month, he posted a .479 OPS but finished the season with an .832 OPS.
His elite defense should keep him on the field, especially since he struggles against left-handed pitching (career .642 OPS vs LHP, .701 OPS vs RHP).
One huge upside for him could be moving up in the lineup. He started a combined 106 games while hitting either 8th or 9th. Over the last week or so, he moved up to batting between fourth and seventh.
Final Take: While his surface stats don’t show it, Ceddanne Rafaela took a major step forward in 2025.
Steven Kwan (166 ADP)
I can’t find any reason to adjust Kwan’s previous production and projection from 12 HR, 20 SB, and a .280 AVG. He’s settled into who he is as a batter.
Final Take: Steven Kwan is a consistent source of batting average and steals with at least double-digit home runs.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
You don’t want to draft Simpson, you want to trade for him.