Four Outfielders: Nimmo, Ward, Profar, Happ
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Previous Outfield Reviews
I’m working my way down the outfielders and first big tier drop. An 18 pick difference between Ward and Profar (there are others between Nimmo and Ward). I’m not sure what to make of it just yet.
Brandon Nimmo (145 ADP)
Over the last two seasons, Nimmo has finished as the 72nd and 67th-best player. The 32-year-old is being drafted well past that point. It’s hard to find a major red flag with him.
His walk rate dropped, but so did his strikeout rate. His power metrics were mixed, with his Barrel% down but his HardHit% up. He did hit a career-high 112.3 maxEV. His Sprint Speed was down from 0.7 ft/s while going from 13 SB to 14 SB. Finally, it was his fourth straight season of over 650 PA. He arrives in Texas as the team’s third-best hitter, so he’ll continue to accumulate plate appearances by hitting high in the lineup.
By joining the Rangers, all his home park factors improved.
Final Take: Boring, old Brandon Nimmo has shown no signs of slowing down, and the change in home park could boost his production.
Taylor Ward (164 ADP)
At age 31, Ward hit a career-high number of home runs (36 last season), but I expect some heavy downward regression on that number. He hit 56 barrels in both 2024 and 2025, but ended up with 11 more home runs than in 2025. Using the normal barrel-to-home run conversion (53% of Barrels = Home Runs), he should be at 29.5 HR. And Baseball Savant put him at a 29.3 xHR.
Going over Ward’s core stats, nothing seems out of place compared to his career norms.
And after struggling to stay on the field during his career, he’s posted 663 PA in each of the past two seasons. I’m not worried about the number going down since he should hit in a prime lineup slot. Right now, the right-handed hitter seems to slot right into Baltimore’s cleanup spot behind left-handed hitting Gunnar Henderson.
Final Take: Taylor Ward is projected for ~25 HR, 5 SB, and a .245 AVG. I could see bumping the home run number up to 30, but not any more.
Jurickson Profar (182 ADP)
After a breakout season in 2024 (24 HR, .280 AVG), Profar took a small step back in 2025 (.839 OPS to .787 OPS) after serving his PED suspension. Most of the decline was BABIP-based (.302 BABIP to .261 BABIP) as he put more balls in the air (13.4 degree LA to 20.0, 42% GB% to 36%). While a drop in BABIP would be expected with more easy-to-catch flyballs, he should have hit more home runs. The problem is that his home runs per plate appearance only went from 4.2% to 4.4%.
The move for more home runs didn’t work because his core power eroded. His HardHit% dropped from 44% to 40%, Average Exit Velocity from 91.1 mph to 89.0 mph, and Bat Speed from 71.7 mph (combined) to 70.9 mph.
Current projections have him with 20 HR, 10 SB, and a .250 AVG. That seems about right. The home runs and batting average could change depending on which swing path he settles on.
Final Take: While still productive, Jurickson Profar tried to hit more home runs last season, but a drop in raw power kept him from any home run improvement, with his batting average taking a hit.
Ian Happ (183 ADP)
What did I do, all-powerful Spaghetti Monster, to profile the four most bland hitters? Since 2022, Happ has averaged 21 HR, 10 SB, and a .251 AVG in 663 PA per season. The 31-year-old is showing no signs of deterioration. He has similar contact rates, swing decisions, and power skills. His wRC+ has ranged from 116 to 122 during those four years.
While the bat seems fine, his legs are slowing down. His 6 SB were his lowest total since 2020. Additionally, he was caught three times for a 66% success rate. From July 28th on, he attempted two steals and was successful only once. Finally, his raw speed dropped to below league average for the first time in his career (48th percentile). His Sprint Speed dropped from 27.9 ft/s to 27.4 ft/s, and his time-to-first increased from 4.34 sec to 4.45 sec.
Final Take: While Ian Happ’s hitting skills should repeat, his stolen base skills are deteriorating, and 5 SB might be his upside.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Just an interesting point (interesting to me): I have had Ward, Happ and Nimmo as my everyday outfielders in a competitive dynasty team for a few years and they have helped me win 3 out of 4 championships (where home runs are not a counting statistic).