Fixing Your ERA Via Home-Only Starters (AL)

Yesterday I gave you seven NL pitchers who have fared much better at home and as such should be considered in only their home venues. Today I’ve got six five more from the American League. This strategy is best deployed in mixed leagues, but I broke the list up by leagues just because it would’ve been too huge for one piece.

UPPER TIER

Garrett Richards, LAA (2.28 ERA split) – Richards had one of the worst starts of the year when he went to New York and dropped a 0.7 IP/6 ER turd on fantasy rosters everywhere. That start influences his road work a good bit, but even removing it only gives him a 4.00 ERA on the road. He’s had some good starts on the road, but he has consistently been sharp at home. His 2.53 ERA comes with a 0.99 WHIP and 22% K rate compared to 1.48 and 16% on the road. He’s allowed more than 3 ER just once at home and he still fanned 11 in that game (4 ER v. CLE). The Angels have just 19 home games left this season, one of the lower totals in the league, accounting for 45% of their remaining schedule.

Jake Odorizzi, TB (1.54 ERA split) – Odorizzi hasn’t been bad on the road this year. He is not an unreasonable all-formats, all-weeks play, but if you’re trying to maximize his value to your ratios, home is the way to go. He’s got a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 26% K rate at home in 57.3 IP. His road work is hardly embarrassing at a 3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 18% K rate in 65 IP, but he’s clearly much better in Tampa Bay.

This is keeping with his trend from 2014. His split was much larger last year as he sputtered to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in 68.3 IP on the road while posting an elite 2.62 ERA in 99.7 IP. It’s nice to see that he’s evolved from a firm home-only to a solid all-venues play, but you’re still get your best value at home.

Erasmo Ramirez, TB (2.11 ERA split) – Ramirez is a sneaky one who is actually an all-formats play that I wanted to shed light on so I included him. That 2.11 ERA split probably has you thinking he’s a perfect candidate for this method, but it’s very deceiving. Ramirez opened the season with a 2 IP/7 ER relief appearance and then a 3.3 IP/8 ER start in Toronto. Those two appearances are greatly influencing his road work.

He was shifted to the bullpen in mid-April and remained there for a month. Since returning, he has logged 17 starts of a 2.61 ERA with a 2.63 at home and 2.59 on the road. He has been excellent regardless of venue. His three big earned run outings (all 5 ER) during the stretch have all gone 6+ IP.

If there is a downside, it’s the dwindling strikeout rate. He held a 22% mark from mid-May when joined the rotation through June, but then dipped to 17% in July, and sits at just 10% in 18.7 IP this month. Of course ERA is our primary focus here, but let’s continue to monitor the swinging strike rate to see if this is something that will cut deep into his effectiveness.

MIDDLE/LOWER TIER

Nathan Eovaldi, NYY (1.53 ERA split) – Eovaldi’s season work points to being a home-only guy with the 1.53 ERA split, but focusing in on his recent work shows how good he’s gotten at home over the last two months. For the season he has a 3.46 ERA at home which is fine, but hardly overwhelming. However, his ERA in the Bronx since June 20th is 2.97. Why June 20th? That was his first start after his total debacle in Miami when he went 0.7 IP/8 ER against his former teammates.

That serves as a neat line of demarcation given how he good he’s been since, but it isn’t just an arbitrary endpoint used to chop off the ugly outing in any analysis. In 13 starts before June 20th, Eovaldi allowed a 1.008 OPS to lefties. Needless to say nothing was working, but the fastball (1.145 OPS) and curveball (1.128) were particular favorites of left-handers.

The slider (.790) and splitter (.831) weren’t much better. In 11 starts since then, he has stifled lefties with a .573 OPS, led by the evolution of that splitter (.415) while the fastball has given him a competitive foundation at .827, while all righty starters have average .822 in that span. The slider and curve have been excellent, too, but with just 25 combined PA ending on those pitches, their combined .432 OPS hasn’t had a huge impact. It feels like Eovaldi has been around forever, but he’s just 25 years old so he’s still progressing and this year, particularly the last two months, has been an impressive step forward.

Kyle Gibson, MIN (1.93 ERA split) – Gibson has been two different pitchers this and the road one isn’t usable in any format right now. His 5.05 ERA on the road has some misfortune mixed in for sure. I watched a couple of his worst road outings and there were some BABIP bad luck hits (bleeders skipping through the infield just by a defender, perfectly placed bloops, etc…), but you can’t just write off a 5.05 ERA to bad luck. His skills are markedly worse on the road, too, with just a 6% K-BB% rate compared to a 12% at home.

The 12% at home isn’t great, either, but paired with a 53% GB rate it can work. It has yielded a 3.12 ERA in 80.7 IP at home. He’s only allowed more than 3 ER in three of his 13 starts at Target Field. His August really shows the home/road volatility: 7 IP/2 ER v. SEA, 4.7 IP/8 ER at TOR, 6 IP/2 ER v. TEX, and 5 IP/6 ER at NYY. Minnesota is one of several teams with 19 home games left on their schedule, 45% of their slate.

Mike Pelfrey, MIN (3.61 ERA split) – Nope, I can’t do it. I’ve reconsidered at the last second. I can’t in good conscience recommend him as a fantasy asset. I just feel like the anvil is hanging overhead waiting to be dropped. He has an obscene home/road split, but the home skills aren’t exactly inviting with a 9% K-BB% rate. His home/road BABIP split is 104 points apart with a .261 at home and that’s driving the success. He allows too much contact to feel confident about any kind favorable BABIP.