First Base Risers & Fallers

No, Albert Pujols will not continue to post a .280 wOBA this season and no, Paul Konerko’s .427 wOBA is (probably) unsustainable as well. Those guys have long track records and we know what kind of numbers they’re going to have at season’s end. This edition of Risers & Fallers focuses on some younger players without that kind of track record to fall back on…

Risers

Ike Davis | Mets

This season hasn’t been kind to the Mets, who have won just four of eleven games and have dropped six of their last seven, but one bright spot is Davis. His rookie campaign was a definite success (.345 wOBA, 3.4 WAR) even if he was sometimes miscast as a cleanup hitter, and early this season he’s producing at a rate that was expected more during his peak than his sophomore effort. David has cut down on the swings-and-misses a bit (8.4% after 9.7% last season) and has been more selective at the plate, swinging at just 20.5% of the pitches he sees out of the strike zone (27.3% last year). He’s not necessarily drawing more walks with that approach, but he’s working himself into more favorable counts and doing damage when presented with the opportunity. No, a .394 BABIP won’t last, but Davis’ power is legit and he’s hitting in a cushy lineup spot conducive to RBI. ZiPS forecast 20 HR and 77 RBI before the season, but the updated version already bumped that up to 21 HR and 88 RBI.

Justin Smoak | Mariners

The 2010 season was not kind to the switch-hitting Smoak, who had just a .300 wOBA in 397 PA and moved from the first place Rangers (and a hitter’s park) to the last place Mariners (and a pitcher’s park) in the Cliff Lee trade. With a clear shot at playing time this year, he’s taken advantage in the early going with a .370 wOBA and a .200 ISO. The power is more doubles than homers at this point, but the balls will start going over the fence once he stops hitting the ball on the ground 50% of the time like he is right now. The ballpark and his teammates certainly hurt Smoak’s fantasy value, but he’s started to assuage some the concerns from last year. Seattle is letting the kid play, and he’s showing what he’s capable of.

Fallers

James Loney | Dodgers

Low-power first baseman aren’t exactly a popular fantasy demographic, but Loney always provided value through his solid batting averages and high RBI totals. Then he hit just .267 last season, including .249 after May 16th and .206 after July 17th, which isn’t a surprise since his line drive rate completely tanked in the second half.. The struggles continue this season, as Loney’s hitting just .159 with a .173 wOBA through his first 47 PA. Nearly three out of every five balls he’s put in play have been on the ground, he’s swinging at more pitches (both in and out of the strike zone) than ever before (54.7% swing rate this year vs. 43.9% career), and at 4.4 runs below average, he’s the third least productive hitters against fastballs this season. If Loney isn’t hitting for average, he’s not worth a spot on a contending fantasy team, and right now he’s completely non-rosterable.

Freddie Freeman | Braves

One of the few rookies with a set-in-stone job coming into the season, Freeman’s reputation as a high-contact doubles machine made him seem like a safe bet to be at least reasonably productive as a rookie, but so far he’s been anything but. He’s struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats and whiffed on one out of every ten swings so far, not exactly the results you’d expect from his process. It doesn’t help that Freeman is offering at more than one out of every three balls out of the zone or that 58.6% of his balls in play are on the ground. The good news is that he is showing some signs of life lately, picking up exactly one hit in each of his last six games (one of which is a double) to raise his average to .205 and his wOBA to .238. Without a ton of over-the-fence power, Freeman’s going to need to start chipping in more base hits to be worth a roster spot.