First Base Rankings Debate: Who’s Number One?

Next week I’ll be releasing an updated version of our first base player rankings (here’s the preseason rankings), and will do so on every Thursday closest to the first of the month for the rest of the season. We’ll talk about stock changes and breakout players and what not in between, but for now I just want to throw something out there for discussion: Is is possible that Albert Pujols is no longer the top fantasy first baseman (and by extension, top fantasy player)?

His competition for that crown comes from one player, Joey Votto of the Reds. Pujols’ slow start leaves his season wOBA at just (relative term here) .351 despite his recent .327/.390/.692, six homerun hot streak (last 14 games). Votto’s assault on National League pitching has been unmerciful and consistent; he’s hitting .379/.509/.655 (.496 wOBA) with nearly twice as many walks (23) as strikeouts (12), and he’s reached base at least once in every game he’s played. They’re both brilliant players in real life and in fantasy, and everyone would take either player on their roster in the heartbeat.

The biggest difference between the two (besides the obvious physical characteristics) is track record. Albert has been doing this for a mighty long time, we’re talking ten straight years of no worse than .312 AVG, .394 OBP, 32 HR, 103 RBI, and 99 R. Those are his single season lows in each category. Votto took home the MVP award last year but was marvelous in 2009 as well, hitting .322/.414/.567 with 25 homers and 84 RBI. That was just his second full season, and although he is still just 27 years old, we don’t have that long history to look back on. Many players have monster seasons in the primes of their careers before fading (sometimes quickly), and we can’t completely ignore that possibly for the Reds’ first sacker. That’s not meant to be a knock on Votto, just something fantasy owners have to consider.

Let’s look at what ZiPS projects for each player for the rest of the year, as well as their updated projection…

Pujols
Rest of Season: .307/.411/.579, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 87 R, 10 SB
Updated: .297/.396/.565, 39 HR, 110 RBI, 105 R, 12 SB

Votto
Rest of Season: .310/.408/.550, 26 HR, 89 RBI, 83 R, 12 SB
Updated: .321/.425/.566, 31 HR, 105 RBI, 106 R, 15 SB

Another thing we have to consider: each player’s teammates. Matt Holliday leads the league in wOBA (.519) hitting behind Pujols (with Lance Berkman turning back into Lance freaking Berkman behind Holliday) while Colby Rasmus shows off a .398 wOBA in the two-hole. Jay Bruce is a really, really good (but slumping) player and Brandon Phillips is solid as well, and Scott Rolen is always productive when he’s not on the disabled list like he is now. Votto’s supporting cast, while certainly productive, isn’t on par with what Pujols has to work with. That will impact RBI and R totals, at the very least. There’s also the whole IBB issue, but I don’t want to go too deep into that.

Votto has been fantastic early this season and really for two full years now, but I still consider Pujols the king. It’ll take more than 24 sub-standard games for someone to unseat him atop the first base (and overall) player rankings, though I do think his throne is in more jeopardy now than it ever has been.





Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.

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Sean
12 years ago

Those ROS projections for Pujols are very pessimistic. Are we looking at a decline in skills here for Albert?