First Base ADP Market Report: 12/4/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Jose Miranda (+11.86)- Miranda had a really interesting up and down season where he started off his Major League debut really poorly before being awesome in June and July before splitting the difference between the two in the final two months of the year. He was a very well regarded prospect with a great hit tool so it isn’t surprising to see him moving up the ADP and the fact he is eligible at both first base and third base is just icing on the cake. We have seen some big power from him in the minors and we know he can hit for average, so there is a lot to like even at the increasing price. 

Joey Meneses (23.15)- I feel like all I have done this offseason is talk about Meneses, but he is a very intriguing player. He is coming off of a very great small sample in the Majors that makes him look like a potential stud if he can carry it into a full season. I think this and the fact that Steamer’s projection is so rosy is the main driving force of his rise in the ADP. That being said, I get the feeling like he is another Frank Schwindel. While he makes decent contact (less than Schwindel did in 2021), hits the ball somewhat hard (not as hard as Schwindel did), he struggles to barrel the ball because of his launch angle and the average was very BABIP fueled. I think there is an argument that even if he struggles, the Nationals do not have anyone to really compete with him (one of the same arguments for Schwindel last year.) The price is fine, but after getting burned by Schwindel last year, I am hesitant to get duped again. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Jake Cronenworth (-18.92)- I am not surprised to see Cronenworth drop a little in the ADP considering Steamer’s projection of him has him taking a step back, but I think that has a lot to do with him being projected to get fewer plate appearances. I think my biggest concern is that he has had 25 point drops in average every season since coming to the big leagues. Now, I think that is a bit BABIP fueled and could potentially rebound back to the .250-.260 range, especially considering his elite contact ability. I love his dual eligibility, so I am fine if the price keeps dropping because I will take the discount. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Matt Mervis (+28.56)- This may be the least surprising rise in ADP that I do in this round of this series. Mervis was becoming a popular name before he went out and mashed at the Arizona Fall League in front of a number of industry analysts including myself. It looks like he might have a good chance to break with the big league club as well with his main competition being Alfonso Rivas. He appears to have a good approach, great understanding of the strike zone and his minor league contact numbers should be around league average with above league average power. I expect the price to continue to rise especially if the Cubs don’t make any moves to block him. 

Miguel Vargas (28.01)- Vargas has been a prospect people have been excited about for a little while now. He had a cup of coffee with the big league club, but struggled in his 50 plate appearance sample. He is too good for AAA and should get a shot with the Dodgers losing so many of their established bats to free agency. I am very interested, but worried the price will continue to climb especially if the Dodgers don’t bring back Justin Turner. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-16.65)- LeMahieu’s drop is not surprising considering he struggled power wise with the deadened ball and the average wasn’t the elite average we have been from him in past seasons. However, the average should rebound some with better BABIP luck and I love the fact he led off 90 games for the Yankees. He is also triple eligible which is so valuable. I am happy to take advantage of the drop in price here on an underappreciated veteran. 

 

Others of Note

Jared Walsh (-21.21)- Walsh’s fall isn’t surprising considering we have no idea if he is healthy and what his role might be. There is not much data on thoracic outlet surgery for hitters and he was always at a risk of a platoon before the injury anyhow. The additions of Hunter Renfroe and Gio Urshela with the rumor they want to add a shortstop means someone is about to lose a fair amount of plate appearances. I think I am completely taking Walsh off my draft board until I see  him playing in spring training. 

P.J. Higgins (+44.32)- See article in this series on catchers.

Ji-Man Choi (+77.25)- Choi’s rise is largely due to the fact his name was in the news after being traded to Pittsburgh. I think that is fair as he seems like he could get more plate appearances on a team that isn’t quite as platoon heavy as Tampa Bay is. However, Pittsburgh did platoon quite a bit with only four players getting 400 plate appearances, so I wouldn’t be projecting him for much more than that personally.