First Base ADP Market Report: 12/27/2025
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.
Top 100 Players Rising
Ben Rice (+19.97) – See the article in this series on catchers.
Top 100 Players Falling
Rafael Devers (-16.03) – Devers is coming off of a strange season. He was involved in rumors in Boston after disagreements with the front office and then things seemed quiet before being traded to the Giants suddenly in mid-June. After arriving in San Francisco, Devers hit .236/.347/.460 with 20 home runs in 395 plate appearances. The park and team around him isn’t as good as it was in Boston which is likely why he is dropping in drafts, but he is still a powerful bat that will rack up counting stats so if the price continues to drop, he will become a bargain.
Top 200 Players Rising
Yandy Díaz (+15.05) – It is a bit surprising to see Diaz rising the way he is. Is coming off of a great season, setting career highs in plate appearances, home runs and RBIs. However, a lot of those homers and RBIs came in St. Pete, which was a hitter’s haven, but with the Rays heading back to the Trop, he is likely going to take a hit in value.
Alec Burleson (+16.64) – Burleson is in line for a lot of plate appearances for the first time in his career after the trade of Willson Contreras to Boston. Burleson has been mostly a platoon hitter during his career, but he showed improvements versus lefties in 2025 and should be given the opportunity to play every day at first base. If he can maintain those gains, there is some decent upside hitting third in St. Louis.
Top 200 Players Falling
None
Top 300 Players Rising
Sal Stewart (+25.91) – Stewart is the Reds’ #2 prospect who debuted in 2025. He was great in his initial callup, hitting .255/.293/.545 with five home runs in 58 plate appearances. He isn’t a massive power hitter, but he is a good hitter that doesn’t strike out and his power should play up more in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. Playing time will be the big question mark for Stewart, especially to start the year, but we have said that for multiple players in Cincinnati the last couple years and it always seems to work out one way or another.
Ryan O’Hearn (+18.56) – O’Hearn is rising after signing in Pittsburgh on a multi-year deal. O’Hearn has been a successful platoon bat in Baltimore for years, but like Burleson, he showed he can hit lefties last season and should now be given a chance to be an every day player in 2026. The park and team around him aren’t super beneficial, but he can be an accumulator that you don’t have to break the bank for in deeper formats.
Top 300 Players Falling
Willson Contreras (-25.48) – Contreras’ drop was largely due to his losing time last season to injury and no longer having catcher eligibility. This drop will be very short-lived now that he has been traded to Boston. Contreras will be hitting third in a great lineup that will likely get better before the end of free agency. Contreras isn’t the massive value he used to be when he was behind the plate, but he could threaten for a career best mark in runs and RBI and the value is really attractive depending on how much he jumps post trade.
Luis Arraez (-18.37) -Arraez is dropping right now because he has not signed. He will find a role somewhere, but where will determine his value.
Others of Note
Triston Casas (-29.5) – Casas was already dropping prior to the Contreras trade due to his foggy timetable in return from injury, but now he doesn’t have a spot on the roster. Casas is a former top prospect and may need a trade to recoup value.
Coby Mayo (-41.69) – Mayo is plummeting after the signing of Pete Alonso likely ends his shot at making the Orioles roster. Mayo was a potential sneaky sleeper before the signing but now needs a trade in order to have value in 2026.
Josh Bell (+36.69) – Bell is rising after signing a one-year deal in Minnesota. Bell had a nice bounceback season in Washington where he hit .237/.325/.417 with 22 home runs. He should be an every day player with the Twins, hitting third in the lineup. The Twins are likely going to be in rebuild mode, but that should give him plenty of opportunities to accumulate until the ship him somewhere via trade at the deadline.
| 11/15/25-12/22/25 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/25-11/14/25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.46 | Nick Kurtz | ATH | 1B | 16.43 | -2.03 |
| 19.04 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | 20 | 0.96 |
| 26.86 | Pete Alonso | BAL | 1B | 28.91 | 2.05 |
| 51.93 | Bryce Harper | PHI | 1B | 44.04 | -7.89 |
| 53.82 | Matt Olson | ATL | 1B | 48.61 | -5.21 |
| 58.25 | Ben Rice | NYY | C, 1B | 78.22 | 19.97 |
| 59.86 | Rafael Devers | SF | 1B | 43.83 | -16.03 |
| 68.25 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 1B | 59.96 | -8.29 |
| 70.29 | Josh Naylor | SEA | 1B | 73.57 | 3.28 |
| 89.93 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 1B | 82.7 | -7.23 |
| 95.61 | Tyler Soderstrom | ATH | OF, 1B | 93.22 | -2.39 |
| 105.46 | Salvador Perez | KC | C, 1B | 114 | 8.54 |
| 106.57 | Michael Busch | CHC | 1B | 107.22 | 0.65 |
| 140.25 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 1B | 155.3 | 15.05 |
| 176.64 | Jonathan Aranda | TB | 1B | 176.35 | -0.29 |
| 192.32 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 1B | 185.13 | -7.19 |
| 193.86 | Christian Walker | HOU | 1B | 187.39 | -6.47 |
| 194.14 | Alec Burleson | STL | 1B, OF | 210.78 | 16.64 |
| 211.39 | Sal Stewart | CIN | 1B | 237.3 | 25.91 |
| 220.18 | Willson Contreras | BOS | 1B | 194.7 | -25.48 |
| 237.79 | Kyle Manzardo | CLE | 1B | 237.74 | -0.05 |
| 238.04 | Spencer Steer | CIN | 1B | 225.35 | -12.69 |
| 268.25 | Lenyn Sosa | CWS | 1B, 2B | 255.52 | -12.73 |
| 279.71 | Jake Burger | TEX | 1B | 287.17 | 7.46 |
| 283.43 | Miguel Vargas | CWS | 1B, 3B | 290.43 | 7 |
| 285.89 | Luis Arraez | SD | 1B | 267.52 | -18.37 |
| 299.57 | Ryan O’Hearn | SD | 1B, OF | 318.13 | 18.56 |
| 300.18 | Andrew Vaughn | MLW | 1B | 309.87 | 9.69 |
| 306.39 | Nolan Schanuel | LAA | 1B | 318.13 | 11.74 |
| 337.64 | Triston Casas | BOS | 1B | 308.52 | -29.12 |
| 348.11 | Josh Smith | TEX | 1B, 3B, SS | 368.96 | 20.85 |
| 359.75 | Spencer Horwitz | PIT | 1B | 374.13 | 14.38 |
| 361.68 | Kody Clemens | MIN | OF, 2B, 1B | 387.04 | 25.36 |
| 400.39 | Coby Mayo | BAL | 1B | 358.7 | -41.69 |
| 412.96 | Jared Triolo | PIT | 1B, 3B, SS | 421.04 | 8.08 |
| 421.46 | Romy Gonzalez | BOS | 1B, 2B | 423.13 | 1.67 |
| 423.18 | Josh Bell | MIN | 1B | 459.87 | 36.69 |
| 453.75 | Rhys Hoskins | MLW | 1B | 431.39 | -22.36 |
| 458.14 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B | 456.52 | -1.62 |
| 488.14 | Liam Hicks | MIA | 1B, C | 521.91 | 33.77 |
| 505.39 | Pavin Smith | ARZ | 1B | 503.04 | -2.35 |
| 519.64 | Nathaniel Lowe | BOS | 1B | 469.17 | -50.47 |
| 520.64 | Tim Tawa | ARZ | 1B, OF, 2B | 564.87 | 44.23 |
| 520.96 | Paul Goldschmidt | NYY | 1B | 512.39 | -8.57 |
| 526.79 | Jake Bauers | MLW | OF, 1B | 589.96 | 63.17 |
| 537 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | CIN | 1B | 517.17 | -19.83 |
| 538.71 | Charlie Condon | COL | 1B | 526.43 | -12.28 |
| 572.07 | Eric Wagaman | MIA | 1B, OF | 568.39 | -3.68 |
| 581.25 | Luke Raley | SEA | 1B, OF | 576.91 | -4.34 |
| 585.89 | Curtis Mead | CWS | 1B, 3B | 578.04 | -7.85 |
| 661.54 | Blaine Crim | COL | 1B | 664.04 | 2.5 |
| 677.14 | Ty France | TOR | 1B | 668.26 | -8.88 |
| 677.68 | Ezequiel Duran | TEX | 1B, SS | 715.78 | 38.1 |
| 694.54 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B | 672.17 | -22.37 |
| 696.5 | Ryan Clifford | NYM | 1B | 686.35 | -10.15 |
| 698.36 | Endy Rodriguez | PIT | 1B | 685.26 | -13.1 |
| 698.39 | Rowdy Tellez | TEX | 1B | 730.91 | 32.52 |
| 708.25 | Warming Bernabel | COL | 1B | 624.74 | -83.51 |
| 715.61 | Rafael Flores | PIT | 1B | 739.96 | 24.35 |
| 722.25 | Abimelec Ortiz | TEX | 1B | 719.87 | -2.38 |
| 723.71 | Deyvison De Los Santos | MIA | 1B | 698.39 | -25.32 |
| 726.07 | Edouard Julien | MIN | 1B, 2B | 723.96 | -2.11 |
| 728.21 | Michael Toglia | COL | 1B | 607.65 | -120.56 |
| 729.71 | Jonathon Long | CHC | 1B | 738.65 | 8.94 |
| 730.75 | Tyler Austin | CHC | 1B | NA | NA |
| 736.64 | Enrique Hernandez | LAD | 1B, 3B, OF | 706.61 | -30.03 |
| 742.07 | Tre’ Morgan | TB | 1B | 732.09 | -9.98 |
| 742.54 | Tyler Locklear | ARZ | 1B | 699.26 | -43.28 |
| 745.71 | Ralphy Velazquez | CLE | 1B | 750.61 | 4.9 |
| 746.43 | Tyler Black | MLW | 1B | 740.87 | -5.56 |
| 750.32 | Carlos Santana | CHC | 1B | 744.22 | -6.1 |
| 750.36 | Andres Chaparro | WAS | 1B | 747.87 | -2.49 |
| 750.36 | Matt Mervis | WAS | 1B | NA | NA |
| NA | Trey Mancini | CHC | 1B | 750.35 | NA |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.