First Base ADP Market Report: 12/12/21

December 13, 2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Paul Goldschmidt (+13.38)- Goldschmidt is likely rising as drafters begin to realize just how good his 2021 was and how it is backed up in the underlying stats. The big bonus was his speed, stealing 12 bases on 12 attempts. There are some questions about whether a new manager in St. Louis may change that, but Goldy is a reliable first baseman at a top heavy position.

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

CJ Cron (+10.44)- Cron is rising after re-signing in Colorado which is so Rockies (blocking younger players), but also great for his fantasy value. He had an up and down start to the season, but hit a groove in August, hitting 14 home runs and slashing .337/.408/.643 in the final two months of the season. Even with his price rising, he is a nice buy right now.

Tyler Stephenson (+15.2)- See the piece in this series on catchers.

Ty France (+14.93)- France is beginning to rise after a good season and the news that he will be the everyday first baseman for the Mariners to start the season. I question how much he should be rising. Yes, France will be hitting in the middle of a lineup that is getting better, but as it gets better, it is likely he drops down the lineup. I think he is an interesting high floor/low ceiling guy, which is nice, but [SPOILER ALERT] I prefer getting the cheaper version in Yuli Gurriel later.

Rhys Hoskins (+12.13)- It is a bit hard to figure out why Hoskins is rising. It may be that he just started a bit low in the ADP, but I don’t know if that is true. The talent has never been an issue for Hoskins, but he has now finished each of the last two seasons with injuries which is a bit concerning. I think he is a pretty easy fade in a deep position.

Yuli Gurriel (+15.94)- Gurriel is the epitome of the low ceiling/high floor target. If you don’t include the 2020 abbreviated season, he has always been a .290 with low strikeout rates and a nice counting stats. I don’t think we ever see another 30 homer season, but he offers a great batting average late in the draft.

Top 200 Players Falling

Max Muncy (-10.87)- With the news that Muncy may have a torn UCL, Muncy will continue to plummet. I love him as a player, so this is disappointing, but until we have a timetable or more information, you should take him off your draft boards and start throwing darts at Edwin Rios in deeper formats.

Top 300 Players Rising

Bobby Dalbec (+35.44)- Tell me if you have heard this one before, Bobby Dalbec finished strong and now people are starting to overhype him. Yeah, I am not falling for this one in the same way that I didn’t fall for it last year. That being said, when he drops outside the top 250, he isn’t a bad power play.

Top 300 Players Falling

Brandon Belt (-11.98)- It is a bit surprising to see Belt dropping after re-signing in San Francisco, but maybe the Giants platoon happy ways and difficult park have people disappointed he came back. Belt had a massive season in just 97 games, but his inability to stay healthy limits his upside. That being said, he is dirt cheap and if the DH comes to the NL, maybe the Giants can squeeze 130 games out of the 33-year-old.

Luke Voit (-14.03)- I think Voit’s drop has to do with the Yankees interest in Matt Olson trade rumors. If Voit can stay healthy, he is a 30 homer bat, but he has struggled to stay on the field. In deep leagues, he is hard to bet on without the replacement value around, but in draft and holds and shallower formats, he is a nice high upside gamble.

Others of Note

Bobby Bradley (+29.59)- Bradley is rising after the news that Guardians are expecting to allow him to be the everyday starter at first base this year. He is a bit of an all or nothing power source, but getting 25+ home runs after pick 350 isn’t nothing in fantasy.

Nick Pratto (+33.12)- Pratto is the future at first base for the Royals and could make his debut early in 2022. After hitting 36 home runs and stealing 12 bases with a .265 average between AA and AAA in 2021, there’s a lot of reason to think he could be a Goldschmidt light player in 2022 if he does get an early call.

First Base ADP Market Report

11/15/21-12/12/21	Player	Team	Position(s)	10/1/21-11/14/21	Change
5.46	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	1B	6.11	0.65
17.92	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B	19.17	1.25
40.15	Matt Olson	OAK	1B	43.11	2.96
46.62	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	1B	60	13.38
58.08	Pete Alonso	NYM	1B	67.78	9.7
68.58	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B	72.61	4.03
109.81	Max Muncy	LAD	1B, 2B	98.94	-10.87
111.35	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	1B, OF	115.61	4.26
115.69	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	1B, 2B, 3B	123.28	7.59
116.88	Jared Walsh	LAA	1B	112.72	-4.16
122.5	Jake Cronenworth	SD	1B, 2B, SS	122.83	0.33
130.5	C.J. Cron	COL	1B	140.94	10.44
140.85	Ty France	SEA	1B, 2B	155.78	14.93
143.31	Josh Bell	WAS	1B	151.44	8.13
144.54	Rhys Hoskins	PHI	1B	156.67	12.13
157.04	Anthony Rizzo	NYY	1B	160.44	3.4
158.58	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C, 1B	173.78	15.2
166.08	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	165.11	-0.97
169.81	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	1B, OF	178.17	8.36
185.85	Trey Mancini	BAL	1B	181.89	-3.96
193.62	Yuli Gurriel	HOU	1B	201.44	7.82
205.35	Jonathan Schoop	DET	1B, 2B	205.28	-0.07
225.12	Bobby Dalbec	BOS	1B	260.56	35.44
227.77	Frank Schwindel	CHC	1B	232.61	4.84
228.31	Brandon Belt	SF	1B	216.33	-11.98
252.85	Nathaniel Lowe	TEX	1B	243	-9.85
262.23	Spencer Torkelson	DET	1B	252.72	-9.51
264.08	Miguel Sano	MIN	1B	273.11	9.03
279.77	Jesus Aguilar	MIA	1B	283.39	3.62
287.31	Luke Voit	NYY	1B	273.28	-14.03
302.54	LaMonte Wade Jr.	SF	1B, OF	301.33	-1.21
348.27	Pavin Smith	ARZ	1B, OF	352	3.73
357.65	Eric Hosmer	SD	1B	335.28	-22.37
379.69	Rowdy Tellez	MLW	1B	375	-4.69
380.35	Bobby Bradley	CLE	1B	409.94	29.59
382.19	Wilmer Flores	SF	1B, 2B, 3B	379.33	-2.86
398.23	Yandy Diaz	TB	1B, 3B	374.61	-23.62
402.69	Yoshi Tsutsugo	PIT	1B, OF	528.11	125.42
408.92	Christian Walker	ARZ	1B	407.72	-1.2
409.27	Keston Hiura	MLW	1B	358.56	-50.71
437.65	Carlos Santana	KC	1B	430.67	-6.98
453.15	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B	461.39	8.24
469.38	Darin Ruf 러프	SF	1B, OF	436.56	-32.82
478	Jurickson Profar	SD	1B, OF	518.72	40.72
495.65	Juan Yepez	STL	1B	574.39	78.74
517.96	Triston Casas	BOS	1B	534.17	16.21
536.35	Colin Moran	PIT	1B	442.06	-94.29
565.5	Brad Miller	PHI	1B, OF	531	-34.5
573.27	Phil Gosselin	LAA	1B, 3B, OF	542.61	-30.66
576.77	Nick Pratto	KC	1B	609.89	33.12
577.38	Jace Peterson	MLW	1B, 2B, OF	608.61	31.23
578.27	Edwin Rios	LAD	1B	543.11	-35.16
602.35	Ji-Man Choi	TB	1B	546.72	-55.63
608.88	Lewin Diaz	MIA	1B	536.11	-72.77
612.5	Sam Huff	TEX	1B	608.78	-3.72
623.27	Matt Beaty	LAD	1B, OF	633	9.73
670.81	Yu Chang	CLE	1B, 3B	651.44	-19.37
694.19	Evan White	SEA	1B	709.22	15.03
711.38	Daniel Vogelbach	MLW	1B	685.06	-26.32
721.58	Albert Pujols	LAD	1B	743.11	21.53
736.85	Johan Camargo	PHI	1B	NA	NA
737.08	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	1B	749.22	12.14
738.5	Joshua Fuentes	COL	1B, 3B	676.56	-61.94
740.35	Willians Astudillo	MIN	1B, 3B	731.22	-9.13
741.65	Taylor Jones	HOU	1B	747.5	5.85
743.73	Luis Guillorme	NYM	3B	NA	NA
743.96	Jake Bauers	SEA	1B, OF	746.11	2.15
744.19	Ryan O’Hearn	KC	1B, OF	733.22	-10.97
744.27	Brendan Donovan	STL	3B	NA	NA
744.38	Erik Gonzalez	PIT	3B	NA	NA
744.73	Kevin Padlo	SEA	3B	NA	NA
746.23	Emmanuel Rivera	KC	3B	NA	NA
747.42	Matt Thaiss	LAA	1B	745.39	-2.03
747.58	John Nogowski	PIT	1B	NA	NA
748.42	Chris Gittens	NYY	1B	742.39	-6.03
NA	Travis Shaw	BOS	1B, 3B	694	NA
NA	Jose Marmolejos	SEA	1B	749.22	NA
NA	Renato Nunez	DET	1B	749.39	NA

SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.