First Base ADP Market Report: 1/24/2026

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Willson Contreras (+37.34) – After dropping in the last update, Contreras is rising up the ADP after being traded to the Red Sox. He is expected to hit third in the Red Sox lineup and while he isn’t as valuable as he was when he was a catcher he did get more plate appearances in 2025 than he ever had in a single season in his career and could top that in 2026. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Jonathan Aranda (-17.59) – Aranda is likely dropping due to the fact the Rays will be heading back to the Trop after playing last season at Steinbrenner Field. It is a much worse hitting environment for power. It will be interesting to see if he reverts back to being the pull hitter he was prior to last season and if he can continue to hit lefties as well as he did in 2025. I have doubts that he can repeat the .393 BABIP versus lefties that we saw last season, but if he continues to fall, he could represent a good value hitting high for the Rays. 

Top 300 Players Rising

None

Top 300 Players Falling

Spencer Torkelson (-11.82) – It’s hard to know exactly why Torkelson is dropping other than people are just thinking regression is coming after a massive season in 2025. However, there isn’t a ton in the profile to be scared of. He barrelled the ball, made very good in-zone contact, and had just a 10.35% swinging strike rate. Obviously, he could regress, but the likelihood isn’t as high as the ADP suggests. 

Spencer Steer (-18.73) – Steer is dropping after a mediocre season where he hit .238/.312/.411 with 21 home runs and seven stolen bases. Steer has been a solid fantasy contributor for years, but he has never taken the step forward that many expected and he no longer has multi-positional eligibility. That makes him a boring accumulator that is best served for deeper formats. 

Others of Note

Lenyn Sosa (-37.33) – Sosa is dropping in the ADP after a breakout season where he hit .264/.293/.434 with 22 home runs and two stolen bases. The problem is that he is projected to be on the short side of a platoon after the White Sox after the signing Murakami to play third. While Sosa isn’t projected to start every day, there’s no reason to think that he can’t find playing time as an utility infielder or if injuries hit the White Sox. If he continues to drop, he could represent a nice value. 

Curtis Mead (-67.06) – Similar to Sosa, Mead is dropping as it looks like he could be the odd man out in Chicago. Mead is a former top prospect, but he has struggled in his limited Major League time. The bigger issue is his lack of defensive skills. His lack of defensive position blocks his paths to playing time and while I do believe he has the ability to be a good hitter at the plate, the team has multiple bad defenders and that will make it hard for them to add another to the infield regularly. 

Josh Bell (+88.46) – Bell is continuing his rise after signing a one-year deal in Minnesota. Bell had a nice bounceback season in Washington where he hit .237/.325/.417 with 22 home runs. He should be an every day player with the Twins, hitting third in the lineup. The Twins are likely going to be in rebuild mode, but that should give him plenty of opportunities to accumulate until they ship him somewhere via trade at the deadline.