First Base ADP Market Report: 1/15/2025

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

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Top 100 Players Falling

Pete Alonso (-10.9) – Alonso is dropping since he hasn’t signed with a team yet this offseason. There are reports now that the Mets likely won’t sign him for his desired contract. If this continues to impact his price, I would definitely be a buyer. Alonso is coming off of a down season, but he still hit 34 home runs and his power will play well anywhere. If he rebounds back to 40 home runs, it would not be surprising and he would be a nice value at his current price. 

Top 200 Players Rising

Michael Toglia (+22.04) – Toglia is likely moving up as a player that is a really intriguing power/speed combination player who plays in Colorado. Toglia hit 25 home runs and stole 10 bases in just 458 plate appearances, but had just a .218 average. He was unlucky in the BABIP department and while he isn’t a high contact guy, he isn’t atrocious either. He did have struggles versus right handed pitching and on the road, but there are some loud tools that are worth gambling on if his price doesn’t rise too much in the ADP. 

Paul Goldschmidt (+14.47) – Goldschmidt is rising after signing in New York to play first base for the Yankees. Goldy had a down season, but still hit 22 home runs and stole 11 bases with a .245 average. The skills are declining for the 37-year-old, but he is still a productive player and the price is still too low. It is a great park to hit in and a fantastic lineup. I am a buyer even with the rising price. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Triston Casas (-11.14) – Casas is likely falling a bit because of the reports that the Red Sox were looking at trying to trade him. Casas is an interesting player that will be hard to predict. In 2023, he started very slowly in spite of good underlying numbers, but then rebounded in the second half with bad underlying numbers. His 2024, was marred by injury which makes it hard to know if he is going to be a breakout or not. His unpredictability is one of the reasons I am not a buyer. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ryan Mountcastle (+43.61) – Mouncastle’s massive jump likely has a lot to do with the reports that the Orioles will be moving the left field wall back in for 2025. Mountcastle isn’t a massive power bat, but he was robbed of numerous home runs by Camden Yards’ massive dimensions. If the changes are drastic, he could be a massive gainer in power this season, but if the price continues to rise, it might not be worth it to gamble on because he still wouldn’t be a 30+ homer guy. 

Jeimer Candelario (+15.12) – Candelario struggled in 2024, hitting .225/.297/.429 with 20 home runs and four stolen bases in 463 plate appearances. His BABIP was below his career average, but he wasn’t really that unlucky. His ext velocities were down and he had the worst in zone contact rate of his career. Some of this could be tied into the fact he was banged up a fair amount, but there is a lot of risk that he does not rebound in 2025. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (-21.28) – CES was a breakout in 2023, hitting in 13 home runs with a .270 average in just 241 plate appearances. However, he hurt his wrist after a slow start in 2024 and then never returned from the IL. I am not buying him right now. If he looks healthy in spring, I could see myself buying back in, but until I do, I just don’t know that we can expect him to get back to the player he was in 2023.

Others of Note

Tyler Soderstrom (+17.5) –  Soderstrom is rising because he should have a full time role with the A’s in a new more hitter friendly park in Sacramento. There is risk with Soderstrom, but he actually showed more contact ability than expected in 2024 with an 84% Z-Contact and a 24% strikeout rate. If he can keep those contact skills in check, he could have a massive breakout because his power is top tier. 

Josh Bell (+23.02) –  Bell is rising after signing in Washington. Bell is a pretty steady contributor, but he is in a really tough spot. There isn’t a ton of upside in his bat anymore and while he should play in Washington, with Nathaniel Lowe in tow, he must hit to keep his role as the everyday DH. He is affordable still, but there are more interesting options at his ADP. 

Carlos Santana (+52.56) – Santana is rising for the same reason as Bell, because he signed a deal in Cleveland. Santana is entering his age 39 season, but he has been a stable contributor, hitting 23 home runs in back-to-back seasons with a .240 average. Again, there isn’t a ton of upside, but he has been a good defender and should play regularly. 

Spencer Torkelson (-73.6) – Torkelson is plummeting because of the news that Colt Keith is moving to first base. With Kerry Carpenter at DH, there may not be room on the roster for Tork, who has struggled with consistency. The former top prospect will likely start the year in the minors which means you should probably not draft him in most formats.