First Base 2025 Fantasy Rankings — The Unranked

Last week, I reviewed my preseason top 40 first base rankings. There were some glaring omissions from that post for two reasons. First, there are always going to be hitters who gain eligibility at a new position that won’t be ranked there during the preseason. Second, there are usually going to be some surprise names off most radars who end up in the top 40, but failed to be ranked there. So today, let’s discuss the 12 hitters who finished among the top 40 first basemen, but were unranked.

Soooo, who had Nick Kurtz finishing inside the top five first basemen on their preseason rankings bingo card?! Yes, he was the Athletics top prospect and we ranked him 16th overall. But I’m guessing absolutely nobody saw a .419 wOBA coming and one of the best rookie offensive performances of all time. He had recorded just 151 minor league PAs before he made his MLB debut and still accomplished such a feat! What’s incredible is he did all this while still striking out 30.9% of the time, which is pretty high, but clearly didn’t matter all that much as it came with an absurd .329 ISO.

I’m really, really curious where he’s ranked among first basemen next season. There’s like a 0% chance he ends up on any of my teams, as I see a .364 BABIP, a 30.8% HR/FB rate that is highly unlikely to be repeated, and a 43% FB%, which is more likely to decline than stay that high. Can he really post an 18.3% Barrel% (ranked 7th among hitters with at least 450 PAs) again with the 17th highest HardHit% and 30th highest maxEV? That’s going to be tough, as he essentially maximized his power. Surprisingly, his fly ball Pull% was actually below league average, so if that increases, that could help offset declines elsewhere.

Rafael Devers eventually gained first base eligibility, as he played 29 games there. Otherwise, he would have been in danger of only qualifying at DH after years as a third baseman. He enjoyed another strong fantasy season, though his strikeout rate spiked and BABIP fell after joining the Giants. Both parks hamper left-handed home runs, but Oracle Park sports the second lowest left-handed park factor in baseball over the last three years, while Fenway Park ranks second highest. So I’m not as big a fan for his first full season in San Francisco.

We all knew that Willson Contreras was moving from catcher to become the Cardinals starting first baseman, but he still couldn’t be ranked at the position if we couldn’t actually draft him there. Despite recording a career high PAs, he didn’t really gain much fantasy value and actually posted his lowest wOBA since 2021. That’s because his HR/FB rate and ISO both dropped to their lowest points since the short 2020 season, despite stable Statcast metrics. Unfortunately, without catcher eligibility, he now becomes a replacement level name in shallow mixed leagues, even if his power should rebound a bit.

Given the star power in the Yankees lineup, I did not expect Ben Rice to come anywhere close so sniffing 500 PAs. But he forced the team’s hand, as he posted a .358 wOBA, and maybe even deserved better thanks to a .410 xwOBA. He sharply improved his strikeout rate versus his 2024 debut and now it’s back in line with his minor league days, while his power jumped. His Statcast metrics were elite, so I think there’s additional HR/FB rate upside. The downside is that he has posted just a .293 wOBA/88 wRC+ against left-handers over his short career, so unless he gets a chance to prove he could hit them and then actually does, he’s a strong side platoon bat, which will limit his counting stats.

It looks like the majority of Ryan O’Hearn’s value came from his .281 batting average, which was driven by the second highest BABIP of his career. He’s the epitome of replacement level in shallow mixed leagues, though you probably want a bit more power. A decline in FB% hurt, as his HR/FB rate rebounded, but he only hit two more home runs in 50 more PAs. I keep thinking this is the year he reverts back to his Royals days, but then the season ends and he’s once again been solid. Does that continue in 2026?

It’s easy to have gone unnoticed when playing for the league’s second worst team, the White Sox. That’s exactly what happened to Lenyn Sosa, who made the top 25 and accumulated 544 PAs, while playing all over the infield. Nothing here looks fluky either, and Statcast thinks he actually deserved even better. If only he stole bases!

It’s surprising to find Ernie Clement’s name among the top 25, despite the fact he failed to reach double digits in either home runs or steals. He was the very definition of contributing a bit across the board, standing out nowhere. The risk with these accumulator types is the value completely disappears with either poor BABIP luck or any sort of decline in playing time.

Wait, are Gavin Sheets and Ryan O’Hearn the same person? Like the latter, this is replacement level, though I do think there’s further HR/FB rate upside. I get bored looking at his profile, but he’s a respectable deep league choice, assuming he has a starting job.

The White Sox had themselves another surprise top 40 first baseman with Miguel Vargas, who you may have played at third base. He improved his strikeout rate and continued hitting a ton of fly balls, which has crushed his BABIP and batting average potential, but increased his home run upside. Unfortunately, a mid-single digit HR/FB rate suggests that hitting fly balls at a 50%+ rate is a really bad idea. Then again, I would also argue that his Statcast metrics scream he’s capable of a much higher HR/FB rate to begin with. Either his HR/FB rate jumps into double digits, or he really needs a swing change.

Amazingly, Romy Gonzalez ranked 34th among first baseman despite accruing just 341 PAs. He could thank a .378 BABIP, resulting in a career best .305 for much of that value. His Statcast metrics are fantastic, but his power has been capped by a sub-30% FB%. Perhaps he and Vargas should switch batted ball profiles.

Josh Smith did almost exactly what he did in 2024, but somehow managed to record just 35 RBI all year. Apparently that was still enough to rank 38th at the position! The improved strikeout rate was nice, but I don’t really see any paths for upside here. Doesn’t matter to the Rangers, as he played a game at every single non-pitching position except catcher! Talk about a super utility man. He probably shouldn’t head into the 2026 season with a starting job.

Funny that Spencer Horwitz ended up ranking exactly 40th at the end of the season. He was originally in my rankings, but then a wrist injury during Spring Training knocked him out of action, and he was removed. Even though he didn’t end up debuting until mid-May and only recorded 411 PAs, he was still decent enough to juuuuuuuuuuust make the top 40. The skills here are acceptable, but the power is simply lacking for a first baseman. It’s going to be hard to change that considering he now plays in the fourth worst home park for left-handed home runs.