First Base 2025 Fantasy Rankings — A Review

During the preseason, us Rotographers focused on a position and shared tiers and rankings, updated weekly through the beginning of the season. I was tasked with first basemen, ranking 40 names and publishing the last update on March 24. Let’s now review those preseason rankings and where those players actually ended up ranking, along with their end of season dollar value earned.

Before I present to you the comparison table, it’s important to remember that it’s nearly impossible to get preseason rankings right. That’s because there are always new players gaining eligibility and nudging themselves inside the rankings, which push other players down, but players never lose eligibility. For example, Rafael Devers ended up earning the fifth most value among first baseman, but since he wasn’t eligible at the position at the start of the season, he couldn’t be ranked. That means that everyone I ranked from fifth and below was affected by his new eligibility.

Alright, let’s get to the preseason rankings, along with the end of season rankings and dollar values earned.

Wow, this turned out bad. I hope no one drafted using these rankings! Welllll, at least you only have to dip down to rank 15 to include the end of season top 10, so that’s not so terrible. But you also had lots of duds in that preseason top 10 and surprises past that. Let’s dive into the names.

My top first baseman and king of a tier all to himself, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a bit of a disappointment. Does earning $8 less than his preseason value qualify him as a bust? He was certainly not a season killer, but obviously his owners must have been marginally disappointed. Most of the underperformance stemmed from his lowest home run and RBI totals since his 2019 debut. You can’t really blame him for the underwhelming RBI total as that’s affected by the hitters ahead of him, and he posted a nearly identical wOBA with Men in Scoring position compared to Bases Empty situations.

The home runs, on the other hand, were due to his lowest HR/FB rate since that 2019 debut, combined with his second lowest career FB%. I don’t know why he hits so many groundballs, especially given his lack of speed. His Statcast metrics were fantastic as always, so it’s crazy to see just a mid-teen HR/FB rate. He’ll be heading into his age 27 season next year and he might come cheaper in 2026, potentially making him a good value in the top tier.

It’s hard to believe that Bryce Harper finished as just the 14th most valuable first baseman. He did miss around three weeks with a wrist injury in June, so he certainly would have ranked higher if he cleared 600 PAs. Everything here looks fairly normal, though a drop in BABIP resulted in his lowest batting average since 2019, and it also caused a decline in OBP, which reduced his runs scored total. He’ll be 33 years old next year so obviously the injury risk isn’t going away and there’s greater risk he fails to steals double digit bases again.

Hello Pete Alonso! Our fifth ranked first baseman ended up as the top dog at the end of the year. That’s not too shocking as he clearly had the pedigree to do it in any given year given his history. What’s a bit surprising is he finished first despite hitting only 38 home runs, which goes to show that the first base crop this year just wasn’t super impressive. He also hit a career best .272 thanks to the highest BABIP of his career and recorded his second highest RBI total. I wouldn’t bet on that BABIP again and his RBI count is anyone’s guess, though hitting behind OBP machine Juan Soto had to be quite nice!

I would say that the seventh ranked Jake Burger was the first true bust in my rankings. I was quite bullish on his move from the Marlins to the Rangers, as his new home has been significantly more favorable for right-handed home runs. Instead, his 2025 was marred by injuries and a short demotion to the minors. He ultimately finished with just 376 PAs, posting career worsts in HR/FB rate and ISO, while his walk rate plunged to a microscopic 3.2%. Assuming he still opens next season with a starting job, I’ll probably be in again at a discounted price.

Immediately following our first bust is our second bust, Triston Casas. He started the season in a prolonged slump, but then got injured which knocked him out for the rest of the year. His future is now apparently up in the air. I like the skills though so I wouldn’t give up.

Wait, so Paul Goldschmidt departed one of the worst parks in baseball for right-handed home runs for the third best, and his HR/FB rate plummets into single digits for the first time in his career?! I did not see this performance coming. It was a bizarre year, as he carried over his sudden lack of patience from last year with another mid-single digit walk rate, but he also reduced his strikeout rate to the second lowest of his career and lowest over a full season. All the while his power went missing in action. At age 38, is this the end?

Whoa nelly, Josh Naylor! I was down on him because I didn’t think he would come close to replicating his power in the move to a pitcher friendly home run park in Arizona. I was right. What I didn’t factor in was a sudden decision to run wild on the bases. He stole an insane 19 bases (without getting caught!) in 54 games with the Mariners, but he had already swiped 11 bases with the Diamondbacks and that itself was a career high. Who on Earth saw this coming?! His cost and value next year will mostly be determined by how much regression fantasy owners believe Naylor will suffer in the stolen base department and then how much regression he actually does experience.

I was pretty optimistic about Cody Bellinger in his new Yankee Stadium home, but it was pretty obvious that everyone else was too, as he was significantly more expensive in my auctions/drafts than I expected. He fully delivered, ranking third among first baseman and delivering a $9 profit. He cut his strikeout rate and SwStk% to career lows and posted a career best FB%, which is all he needed for a strong fantasy season. His home run power is still nowhere near where it was through 2020, so who knows if he’ll ever have another season like those again or if this is who he is for good now. I don’t see anything that screams regression next year, though it’ll come down to his ability to maintain a low-to-mid teen strikeout rate and upper 40% FB%, which I wouldn’t exactly bet on happening again.

One of the most exciting games each year is guessing whether this will be the powerful version of Yandy Díaz or not. This season it was. Last season it was not. Which version will appear next year? Let’s play the game! Nothing in his skill set changed, except that his HR/FB rate jumped to his highest over a full season. The Statcast metrics have always been strong, except for a middling Barrel%, and that didn’t change this season. Unfortunately, his walk rate has slipped into single digits for the second straight year, so his OBP format boost has dwindled.

After a poor 193 PAs with the White Sox this year, Andrew Vaughn was traded to the Brewers and mashed, posting a .373 wOBA. It didn’t come with any extra home run power though, as his 12.7% HR/FB rate with the team wasn’t much higher than his career mark. It was mostly due to a sharp improvement in strikeout rate and surge in BABIP. I did think Vaughn had been capable of much better than he’s shown, but I’m not buying this Brewers surge. I’m guessing he’ll be on every sleeper list and merely return to his pre-2025 White Sox levels, perhaps a little better, making him a bottom tier first baseman who frequently gets picked up and dropped in shallow leagues.

Alec Burleson was a top 20 performer, despite a negative preseason projected dollar value. He posted fewer counting stats across the board versus 2024 though, but with a higher batting average. I really want to like this skill set as all that’s really missing is more power. His HardHit% and maxEV suggests better, but his pull fly ball rate is well below league average, which has held back the power output. If he turns that around, he’d be quite intriguing.

I did not expect a major Michael Busch breakout! He did this even while recording just 95 PAs against left-handers and posting an ugly .282 wOBA against them. Credit a big improvement in strikeout rate despite a stable SwStk%, and a spike in HR/FB rate, driven by surges in the Statcast metrics. I expect some regression next year, but would go with slightly closer to this season than last. Doing no damage against lefties definitely caps his upside.

I was all over the place with Spencer Torkelson’s ranking over the preseason. He went from having a starting job to seemingly not, to seemingly so thanks to injury. He ended up making us forget 2024 ever happened and essentially replicated his 2023. I’m not enamored here as he hits too many fly balls to ever help in batting average, though that’s a boon for his home run total. And for his career, he has posted just a 95 wRC+ against right-handers, though it was 110 this year. As a first baseman or DH, that just won’t cut it, so an extended slump could truly put him in danger of being relegated to the short side of a platoon. But hey, he’s still only 26 years old, and was formerly the fourth best prospect in baseball, so it’s certainly possible he increases his power further and posts a 20%+ HR/FB rate, which could result in flirting with 40 homers.

Tyler Soderstrom was another post-30 ranking breakout. I’m guessing many fantasy owners kind of ignored him as a first baseman after he lost his catcher eligibility, me included. His FB% plunged, so his home run pace fell off from 2024, but he offset the loss of power with a massive jump in BABIP. The power is definitely real, but I’m skeptical of the batting average and also the eight steals.

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So yeah, there were some surprise breakouts among the first base crop this year, but overall it just wasn’t the deep position it used to be. Will anything change next year?