Final Stretch Pitchers: Giolito & Richards

As the season winds down, here are two pitchers who owners may want to consider as options as other starters get shut down.

Lucas Giolito

Over the last year or so, I haven’t been kind to Lucas Giolito. In four starts major league starts last season, he issued more walks (5.1 BB/9) than strikeouts (4.6 K/9). His fastball velocity dropped from the high to the low 90’s. He was a top ten prospect coming into the 2016 season but his stock dropped to the point where his 2017 prospect rankings were closer to 50th overall.

The Giolito’s shine has returned with him posting a 2.25 ERA and two wins in three starts. He recently mentioned a mental change causing the turnaround.

“It was more like a mental click this year,” said Giolito, one day after allowing one run over seven innings against the Rays to go with 10 strikeouts in his second straight victory. “Just like the past year-plus, year and a half, two years, I’ve been kind of like struggling with confidence and just thinking too much about my delivery. Trying to be too consistent to the point that I’m forcing things.

“I’ve been able to kind of just release some of the other stresses as far as thinking about my delivery, thinking about consistency or pitching deep into games or whatever it was. It was messing me up. Just kind of let go of all that. I focused on going out and competing and having fun and giving my best effort.

With the new mental approach, the changes must transfer to the mound.

The biggest item to remember about Giolito, he’s not the pitcher with a triple digit fastball and elite hammer which he was touted as having since being drafted in 2012. The fastball’s velocity is league average at 92 mph and the curve is most likely is four best pitch.

Here’s what he’s currently throwing:

• Fastball (92 mph): Besides the velocity drop since being drafted, he’s lost an additional 1 mph from last season to this season. Even with the drop, his fastball is more effective with its swinging strike rate (SwStr%) doubling from 4.7% to 9.8%. He’s increased the spin on his fastball from 2064 rpm in 2016 to 2148 this season. The extra spin has kept the pitch from dropping 1.6 inches less while coming to the plate 1 mph slower. Usually, the slower a pitcher throws a pitch, the more it will drop as gravity works on it. With the extra spin, hitters may be swinging under the pitch.
• Change (82 mph): The change is his new go-to breaking ball with a 24% SwStr% this year. Signs existed last year that this pitch may be his best with a 14% SwStr%, but he threw his curve ball almost twice as much. This season, the roles have changed with him going to his change more. Besides getting swings-and-misses, he throws it into the zone 54% of the time to get called strikes. I wonder if his mental change comes down to him finally accepting that his once highly touted curve ball won’t keep him in the majors.
• Slider (84 mph): The slider has a league average 14% SwStr%. Besides generating some whiffs, all eight balls put in play against it this season have been ground balls. It is a completely acceptable third pitch.
• Curve (79 mph): The curve hasn’t been good to him. Its swinging strike rate has dropped from 9% to 6% which is way below league average for a curve ball. I wonder if hitters aren’t fooled by it. Since it’s only in the strike zone 28% of the time, they can just let it pass (lowest Swing% of his pitches at 39%).

So right now he’s a rising fastball pitcher with a great change up, decent slider, and a show me curve. Even though they have different deliveries, his pitch mix and quality reminds me of Johnny Cueto, draftable in all league, but not elite.

Now, I do have a couple concerns. First, owners should not expect a sub-2.50 ERA with his ERA estimators hovering around 4.00. Also, his 1.8 HR/9 is a little discouraging. All the home runs are off his rising fastball and in home run happy U.S. Cellular, he could give a ton of dongs. Owners may need to manage his starts to miss the potential blowups.

Overall, I like the changes and see him as a potential sleeper going into next season. I do worry others may also see him the same way and his cost will sky rocket with the low ERA and prospect pedigree. Owners need to find a projection they can live with and not over pay for him.

 

Garrett Richards

After examining Richards return start from the DL (biceps), I’ll put him as a must-add in all leagues. With decent starting pitching tough to find, he’s a potential late season addition to boost an owner’s staff.

While it was only one start, some positive signs exist. First and most importantly, his fastball velocity averaged over 95 mph which will generate a decent number of swinging strikes. Also, he’s throwing his slider hard (90 mph). Even though he mixes in a curve occasionally, he’s power arm and effectively throws the two pitches ~95% of the time.

Additionally, he’s keeping up his groundball tendencies with over half the batted balls from his start on the ground (70% on the season). He’s throwing like he has when he was previously healthy which makes him a must own.

Now onto the negative factors. First, he’s not throwing many pitches yet. Even though he had allowed just one run on a walk and a hit in his first start, he was pulled in the middle of the 4th inning. He was at 52 pitches. He’s not going to be eligible for Win throwing just 3 innings. The number of pitches will likely increase but he won’t be jumping to 100 pitches in his next start. Owners desperate for just Wins may need to look for another option.

Another suspect part of his profile is his health. He’s thrown a total of 42 innings over the past two seasons. Health issues will linger around him until he puts in another full season.