FG+ O/U Game: Jonathan Papelbon
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our second over/under game, let’s take a look at Jonathan Papelbon.
The over/under number for Papelbon is $12. As in, would you spend more than $12 on Papelbon in ottoneu? What sort of settings would make Papelbon worth that scratch?
The 31-year-old famously switched home parks over the offseason, but he’s still on a good team and still the owner of a great strikeout rate and a miniscule walk rate. His velocity came back and his closer face was in mid-season form all year long. If you had paid for FanGraphs+, you’d have Chad Young’s excellent breakdown of different strategies for each ottoneu setting, and you’d know even more about the relative value of relievers in a game that has five reliever slots, linear weights scoring, and a $400 overall budget.
But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to suss out Papelbon’s value this season in ottoneu. His average price last year was near $8 — but that was leagues of all settings and that was before his resurgent year. If you think you’d more likely pay $12 (or more) for him in one of the three ottoneu settings than any of the others, include that in your answer. To make sure everyone is eligible — feel free to describe the settings that would make Papelbon worth every bit of a hefty price tag.
Have at it!
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Over.
Saves are the rare managerially-determined stat in roto baseball, and huge contracts are the leading cause of save certainty and role stasis. I would argue in favor of Papelbon’s performance, but that’s irrelevant in a circumstance such as this. The only stat necessary is listed at Cott’s.