February to March 2020 NFBC ADP Surgers

While it is wrong to use an ADP (average draft position) list as your actual rankings to draft off of, that doesn’t mean that ADP data is useless. It’s far from it, in fact. One of the insights you can glean from the data is identifying players rising and falling in value. So today, let’s compare NFBC ADP from February to March and discuss the players who have convinced fantasy owners to pay more for them this month than last.

With the Yankees rotation already the walking wounded and Domingo German not expected back from his suspension until summer, suddenly the team is scrambling for rotation options. Enter Jordan Montgomery. Remember him? He enjoyed a solid debut in 2017, then succumbed to Tommy John surgery the following year and returned to throw four innings last season. He should stick in the rotation for a while, unless of course he struggles to regain his pre-TJ form. He’s certainly worth a shot in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues, but who knows what we’ll get from him.

I have to admit, I had no idea who Ryan Helsley was. Apparently he was vying for a rotation spot with the Cardinals in late February, but that seems like an unlikely scenario at this point. Now he’ll just be a generic middle reliever that throws hard and could eventually record a bunch of saves.

Eeek, that Orioles bullpen is still terrible, so it’s no surprise to hear Hunter Harvey being mentioned as a potential closing option. But don’t be fooled by that 42.3% strikeout rate — it was entirely due to foul strikes, rather than swinging strikes you would hope to see. A 98+ MPH fastball gives us hope, but I think Mychal Givens is a much better pitcher.

The annual Yankees offensive injuries have already reared their ugly heads, which means the excitement over Clint Frazier finally getting an extended look has begun. I like Frazier too if he played, but he still looks like a longshot for significant playing time.

Not sure why Nathan Eovaldi has surged.

I guess Nate Pearson throwing darts in spring has people dreaming of what he could due when he’s eventually called up this season? Nothing has changed from Feb to Mar…I don’t think at least.

Wowzers, Yusei Kikuchi is suddenly throwing in the mid-90s. I’m buying and his ADP should be decreasing rapidly from that 502 mark.

Injuries have resulted in more secure playing time for Mike Tauchman.

Corbin Burnes‘ strikeout ability is intriguing and he has a shot at winning a rotation spot while Eric Lauer is injured.

As an owner of a cheap Joshua James, I’m crossing my fingers that he wins a rotation spot. His stuff is electric, but controlling it is the issue. Luckily, that is much easier to fix than weak stuff.

I guess not striking out in half your Spring at-bats is enough to push up Chris Davis‘ price. It’s only been 26 plate appearances so far, but I’d be lying if I wasn’t a bit intrigued. So far he has walked 9 times to just 3 strikeouts, which might mean something. Or not. He’ll certainly be cheap enough to take a stab in a deep or AL-Only league.

No idea why J.A. Happ has jumped.

Like Kikuchi, Alex Wood’s velocity is apparently improved, which is a big deal for him. I’m back in.

Wade Davis, who stinks now, was named the closer, for some reason. Doubt he lasts past April in that role.

Dylan Bundy was traded to the Angels in December, so it’s odd that his ADP has jumped during these two time periods. I guess that’s how sleeper hype works! If I may, I’d like to put a damper on some of that excitement — his career HR/FB rate is actually higher in away parks vs home. You assumed that Oriole Park killed him, right? It didn’t help, sure, but he was worse away, so we can’t automatically project a significant drop in home run rate in a more pitcher friendly venue.

Ian Happ should garner the lion’s share of center field at-bats for the Cubs and still has excellent power.

There’s certainly a path to playing time for Dylan Carlson, who could contribute a little everywhere.

Three homers in 26 Spring at-bats for Miguel Cabrera is enough to remind owners of his previous greatness. Except that he’s going to be 37 and it’s generally assumed that injuries have hampered his performance. I doubt that goes away and he has any chance to rebound meaningfully enough to be worth anything in shallow mixed leagues. But sure, buy him cheap in deep and AL-Only leagues.

Given his strikeout rate, I still want to take a shot on Freddy Peralta if he wins a rotation spot.