February Rankings – Third Basemen
We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
Previous Editions:
| # | NAME | Paul S | Brad | Mike | Jeff | Al | Justin | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nolan Arenado | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | Josh Donaldson | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | 4 | 1 |
| 5 | Jonathan Villar | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| 6 | Adrian Beltre | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3 |
| 7 | Kyle Seager | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 2 |
| 8 | Matt Carpenter | 6 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 12 |
| 9 | Todd Frazier | 15 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 10 |
| 10 | Evan Longoria | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 4 |
| 11 | Anthony Rendon | 8 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12.3 | 7 |
| 12 | Jose Ramirez | 12 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 7 |
| 13 | Alex Bregman | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 3 |
| 14 | Miguel Sano | 17 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 7 |
| 15 | Justin Turner | 16 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 23 | 14.8 | 14 | 13 |
| 16 | Jake Lamb | 13 | 14 | 14 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 15.7 | 15.3 | 7 |
| 17 | Maikel Franco | 14 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 15 | 16 | 16.5 | 12 |
| 18 | Mike Moustakas | 18 | 24 | 17 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 18.5 | 18 | 9 |
| 19 | Eduardo Nunez | 20 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 18.8 | 7 |
| 20 | Ryon Healy | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 21 | 21.2 | 20.5 | 7 |
| 21 | Nick Castellanos | 21 | 26 | 19 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 22.8 | 22.5 | 9 |
| 22 | Jung Ho Kang | 24 | 17 | 26 | 17 | 18 | 38 | 23.3 | 21.3 | 21 |
| 23 | Eugenio Suarez | 23 | 19 | 23 | 22 | 29 | 27 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 10 |
| 24 | Ryan Schimpf | 28 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 32 | 26.5 | 25.8 | 8 |
| 25 | Yangervis Solarte | 25 | 28 | 24 | 41 | 25 | 25 | 28 | 25.8 | 17 |
| 26 | Javier Baez | 22 | 22 | 36 | 33 | 32 | 24 | 28.2 | 27.8 | 14 |
| 27 | Matt Duffy | 30 | 30 | 27 | 38 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 28.8 | 11 |
| 28 | Hernan Perez | 37 | 32 | 37 | 39 | 21 | 19 | 30.8 | 31.8 | 20 |
| 29 | Jedd Gyorko | 29 | 33 | 43 | 30 | 28 | 22 | 30.8 | 30 | 21 |
| 30 | Pablo Sandoval | 26 | 29 | 39 | 41 | 36 | 26 | 32.8 | 32.5 | 15 |
| 31 | Yulieski Gurriel | 32 | 39 | 29 | 24 | 38 | 35 | 32.8 | 33.5 | 15 |
| 32 | Jose Reyes | 27 | 18 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 31 | 32.8 | 34.5 | 23 |
| 33 | Martin Prado | 35 | 35 | 28 | 36 | 30 | 34 | 33 | 33.5 | 8 |
| 34 | Travis Shaw | 33 | 42 | 30 | 31 | 34 | 29 | 33.2 | 32 | 13 |
| 35 | Brandon Drury | 31 | 38 | 41 | 41 | 22 | 32 | 34.2 | 35.5 | 19 |
| 36 | Jhonny Peralta | 34 | 27 | 33 | 41 | 41 | 30 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 14 |
| 37 | Howie Kendrick | 42 | 31 | 22 | 29 | 41 | 50 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 28 |
| 38 | Adonis Garcia | 40 | 50 | 32 | 27 | 40 | 37 | 37.7 | 37.3 | 23 |
| 39 | Jorge Polanco | 45 | 45 | 34 | 26 | 31 | 49 | 38.3 | 38.8 | 23 |
| 40 | Yunel Escobar | 41 | 36 | 38 | 41 | 41 | 36 | 38.8 | 39 | 5 |
I agree with the very top of the chart, but the biggest surprise to me is how low Lamb is. Looking at the numbers, why is he expected to take a dip across the board?
I don’t think his ranking assumes a dip across the board. Obviously I’m in on him, but looking at the other rankings, I don’t think any of them are projecting some fall off. He was 15th on ESPN Player Rater last year at 3B so even Jeff as the low man isn’t that far off.
Even as a fan of his, I’d say we certainly can’t *expect* improvement from him this year, but I’d gladly take a repeat. I’m not sure he’s below anyone he is automatically better than, to be honest.
The counting stats projections have him taking a dip. A young player in a lineup getting one of its best hitters back I would think should take a step forward.
Never showed this kind of power in the minors, 2nd half .663 OPS and scuffled badly against lefties, to the point of being basically platooned. I’m a DBacks fan and was all over Lamb last year (I might be one of the few people who actually drafted Lamb) so I’m really hoping the 2nd half swoon was tied to the plunking he took on his hand in July and that he improves against lefties. But there is no question that there are some question marks there.
I’d say the plunking definitely took it’s toll (especially from a power standpoint) and played a big part in his dramatic dip in performance: from 4/4 – 7/17 (342 PA) he slashed .302/.380/.635 with a .419 wOBA for a 158wRC+. From 7/19 – 10/2 (252 PA) that line plummeted to .176/.266/.338 with a .263 wOBA for a 54wRC+. His ISO went from .332 to .162 after the hand injury. BABIP from .350 to .215. Hard% went from 42.5% to 34.9%.
Jeff what makes you a believer in Franco, compared to everyone else?
Great list, so hard to decide!
A little surprised to see Gurriel so low. I know there isn’t a ton of info on him, but it certainly feels like he has more upside than most guys on the second half of this list.
4/6 of the guys have Sandoval over Gurriel (with a couple by about 10 ranks). From my perspective it looks like Gurriel’s reasonable floor is Sandoval + a few steals.
Agree with this – forget about the whole weight issue drama, the guy can’t hit lefties anymore. I think you also have to question his ability to stay healthy at this point – he has topped 126 G only twice in the last 6 years. I also think he was probably a little over-rated to start with. Just looking at everything since his rookie season in 2009, he has topped .283 only once in the last 7 years, has topped 16 HR only once in the last 7 years, and has never topped 80 RBI or 70 runs in the last 7 years. Put another way, here is a comparison of his best-case line and worst-case line using his best seasons in the last 7 years (excluding last year since he barely played):
Best: .315, 23 HR, 68 R, 79 RBI, 3 SB
Worst: .245, 10, 43, 47, 0
BUt I also think the bottom of the list just represents a lot of variability on opinion. Most guys at the bottom have a range of 15 or so spots between the panelists precisely because everyone down there has some serious question marks.
I look at the bottom there as emergency options unless you’re in a really deep league. Need some HR? Jumbo Schimpf might pan out. Need some BA? Martin Prado should hit at the top of the lineup and score a bunch of runs as well as hit for average. Need some SB? Jose Reyes should still steal a few bags. Like positional versatility? Howie Kendrick should qualify at 4 positions in many leagues.
“Jumbo Schimpf might pan out”.
+1 for that sentence alone.
Total accident but you’re right – that’s funny
Is 3B the deepest position in the majors? I mean, Kang has some PT concerns, but he seems inevitable to hit 20 HR and could hit 30… and he’s below average for the position! Amazing
Alright Justin, let’s hear it. Justin Turner has done it two years in a row with great all around numbers, and yet you’ve got him at #23 behind some questionable options like Ryon Healy, Jedd Gyorko, and Hernan “got no job” Perez. Why so puzzlingly late?
And Jeff, you’re not off the hook. You love Franco at #9, but Turner’s either equivalent if not better. Yet there he is, #19. Strange stuff… unless you’re expecting a massive Franco break out.
Yeah, they’ve all got Turner puzzlingly low. I’d put him in the top 10–Frazier has no business being that high either. Bad support, power-only profile
I wouldn’t say Frazier is power-only. Looking at per 600 PA rates from 2014-16 for top 30 PA third basemen, Frazier is 2nd in HR, 4th in R and RBI, and tied for 1st in SB. AVG was unquestionably bad last year, but let’s not make him out to be Chris Carter.
agree with you about turner in general but how dare you describe ryon healy as “questionable”
Healy had a good year, but his hitting and power profile don’t really match up with long term consistency (Shandler’s “Forecaster”). Healy also wasn’t mentioned in BA’s top 100 prospects for the past couple of years. This isn’t to say that a guy can’t come out of the blue to perform well in the MLB, but one still has to hope that Healy can do it again and that pitchers don’t sort him out the second year in.
So indeed, I feel that Healy has a lot more question marks than Turner, and although he’s ranked higher than Turner in Justin’s bizarre ranking, Healy’s still ranked pretty low despite the good year. It seems his break out is met with trepidation.
how *dare* you
Justin Mason is a name-traitor.
I’ve got Seager/Longoria/Rendon as basically equivalent value, and all quite a bit ahead of Carpenter.
I also feel good about Franco (25 HR/88 RBI/.260, as a 23 year old!) and Moustakas. So take those all into account and I guess I’m on board with Jeff’s ranks the most.
Moncada? D Valencia? Headley? Surely some of those guys are going before A Garcia or Escobar…
Both great players, but how does someone justify Machado over Donaldson in a re-draft league? I’d argue that Donaldson is up there with Arenado and Bryant as well.
Over the last two years (JD/MM):
R: 244 / 207
HR: 78 / 72
RBI: 222 / 182
AVG: .291 / .290
SB: 13 / 20 –> Machado had 0 in 2016
wRC+: 156 / 132
OPS: .946 / .869
Given Donaldon’s age the odds of him regressing are probably higher than Machado, but Donaldson actually got better from a sabermetric standpoint last season with a big increase in walk rate and a lower K rate.
Who is actually playing Machado at 3B instead of SS? He is SS elig everywhere.
I’d imagine plenty of people would still use him at 3B. Each position has a measure depth where it’s not obvious to use him at one over the other
I don’t know if they factor in positional versatility into the rankings since this is focused on 3B rankings, but when looking at Donaldson and Machado I’d have to consider that Machado has SS eligibility along with the 3B eligibility. That makes Machado more valuable to my fantasy team when I’m working with a pool of either SS or 3B later in the draft and in-season versus hunting solely for a SS if I own Donaldson.
My question is for Paul and any of the FG staff who kindly might be reading these comments. To what extent do you find Tony Blengino’s contact-quality assessment pieces relevant in how you assess future performance? I would like to use Josh Donaldson as an example. Albeit with granular data, which we are all learning how to use, Blengino found Donaldson’s profile superior to the rest of the 3Bs … contact frequency and extraordinary batted ball authority across all types, excellent trending and current K and BB rates, FB/LD/GB rates that leave room for future power growth … the works. By comparison, the profiles for Arenado, Machado and Bryant are all strong but express concerns. For purposes of answering this question, please ignore his recent injury. Thank you!
Probably too late and nobody will respond to this since this post is now a few days old, but I just realized Pedro Alvarez is 3b eligible in Yahoo standard leagues – he squeezed in 12 games, including 6 starts, at 3b when Machado moved over to SS.
Now he doesn’t currently have an actual, you know, team to play for and he will almost certainly be platooned, however, where would he fit in with this list?
He still blasts righties. I’d probably have him around Shaw with a gig.
Not so idle speculation: Where would Kang rank if we found out tomorrow that he will face no suspension from the league?