Fantasy Relevant Tidbits from Saber Seminar

This past weekend I spent two days in Boston at the Saber Seminar. As always, it is a great event and here is some the fantasy relevant information I extracted from it (full list of presenters and abstracts).

Note: My notes got a jumbled so there may be a chance the information I attribute to a speaker is incorrect. I apologize to the speakers in advance if I made this mistake.

Rich Hahn: Q and A

He broke some big news at the conference which he stated that Reynaldo Lopez will be starting for the White Sox this weekend against the Royals.

Will Carroll: Saving the Pitcher, 2017: A Data Driven Approach

He was promoting the use of the Motus Sleeve to help measure short and long term elbow stress. He discussed that each pitch has different levels of elbow stress depending velocity and pitch type. As for predicting injuries, I wonder if some general injury guidelines can be created, especially incorporating Motus sleeve data. I’m going to investigate this idea further. If anyone else is interested, let me know and I may be able to share some ideas and/or acquired needed data.

Mike Reinold: An Update on the Effect of Weighted Ball Training on Arm Stress, Range of Motion, and Injury Rates

For every inch a player grows, their fastball should gain 1.2 mph. But he also said they gain 1.5 mph for each year they get older. I wonder if the pair is related.

The height gains may be why some teams and scouts prefer taller pitchers.

Rachel Heacock: Analyzing the Risk and Return of Baseball Players: An Application of Asset Pricing Theory

She talked about how teams could use a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to help determine the free agent prices. She implied each team has its own model depending on several factors.

I’ve been trying to find a way to incorporate risk into fantasy evaluations and CAPM allows for risk. Most CAPM literature involves stock market evaluations, it should apply nicely to fantasy players. Expect more on this topic as I read up on it.

Joe Rosales: Reexamining Runs Saved by The Shift

He mentioned that the shift will affect each player differently. This is the key point. Teams may shift Player A and drop his BABIP down by .025. Doing the same shift against Player B, the effects may be a 100 point BABIP drop.

Alan Nathan: A science-based approach to understanding the home run surge (presentation slides)

Changes to just the ball’s seams account for 15% of the home run surge. Other ball attributes could also add to the surge.

Dr. Nathan also brought up the ball-bat offset at impact and some interesting charts on ideal exit velocity and launch angle. More can be done in this realm I believe.

Paul Sporer and I were talking about which hitters improve and how owners can get an early season read on those differences. A change in their batted ball profile (launch angle or pulling the ball) was one of the major cause (along with plate discipline) for improvement. Studies could be done by finding a hitter’s ideal launch angle from their exit velocity and then those who have adjusted. Or before the season, those hitters who can adjust the most can be targeted as sleepers. Finding truly improved hitters is one of the biggest challenges in fantasy baseball and I would love to take another stab at it this offseason.

Glenn Healey, Shiyuan Zhao, Dan Brooks: Measuring Pitcher Similarity

These speakers found a better way to project pitchers from season to season by grouping them into similar groups by pitch characteristics. I love the idea and think it has some uses. I wonder if the analysis behind it (Earth Mover’s Distance) is too involved to be implemented into mainstream projections.

Chris Geary: Review of Sports Medicine in Baseball, 2017

Almost every pitcher has some form of thoracic outlet happening, it’s just the degree. Most pitchers don’t need surgery to remove a rib but it is a lot more common than reported. It’s highly related to the dreaded “dead arm” pitchers end up with.

It’s tough-to-almost impossible to heal cartilage injuries. If it’s damaged, surgery is needed and the joint will never get back to 100%.

Zack Scott and Brian Bannister: Q&A

Bannister stated the key to pitching is getting groundballs and swinging strikes. Sounds good to me.

Fernando Perez: Development, Practice, and Performance: Insights from a Major Leaguer

Great talk on the ineffectiveness of the minor leagues. One part he mentioned was that the playing experience is completely different from the majors to the minors. Players have to relearn a ton of their game they just spent years learning.

I wonder if some teams (e.g. Cardinals) are better at preparing players for this transition. I plan on looking to see if some teams’ rookies immediately beat or underperform their projected production.

Glenn Fleisig: The True Relationship between Pitch Velocity and Elbow Stress: A Biomechanical Study

He found 15% of minor leaguers have had Tommy John surgery and 25% of major leaguers have the scar.

Previously, I’ve found that higher velocity leads to increase injuries. It’s true but each pitcher is different. Each pitcher generates a certain amount of torque and this torque is what leads to injuries. Going full effort, especially if fatigued will lead to injury.

This concept, along with the talks of Will Carroll and Mike Reinold, got me wondering if looking at maximum versus average velocity could help determine the percentage of times a pitcher is throwing at full effort. Also, relief appearance velocity may help to determine max effort velocity.

Shoulder injuries are the worst. They’re about impossible to fix.

Brian Mills: The Strike Zone Expansion: Which Players Were Affected Most?

This presentation (and subsequent Baseball Prospectus article publishing soon) investigated players who gained and lost production by strike zone changes. Right now, nothing can be done by owners. The zone is pretty much set. In the future though, owners can see if there are any early season strike zone adjustments and then find which players perform better or worst in that part of the strike zone.

Katherine Evans: Prediction: Motivations, Problems, and Methods

She presented on models which focus on accuracy instead of interpretation. She focused on good output and brought up the R package called “Super Learner Algorithm”. It takes many different prediction tools and uses them to create the most accurate output. There is no formula created, just an answer. I’m really interested to give it a try this offseason.

Michael Ricciuti and Matthew Yaspan: The Career Offensive Aging of Catchers

They determined catcher offensive production doesn’t peak later than other position players. Also, they found that catchers don’t wear down over the season compared to other position players.