Fantasy Impact: Jon Lester, Yoenis Cespedes Switch Teams
Jon Lester has been traded by the Red Sox to the Oakland Athletics, and in a fascinating twist, Boston will receive Yoenis Cespedes in return. Jonny Gomes will accompany Lester in Oakland, and a competitive balance pick will go with Cespedes to Boston.
Lester has reemerged as an absolute ace in his contract year, and he’s rolling into the Bay Area with a career best ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. While most people consider Boston to be a hitter’s paradise, it’s actually relatively neutral outside of doubles smacking off the Green Monster, but moving to Oakland will still be a good thing for Lester. Oakland is one of the great pitcher’s parks, with spacious foul ground that makes ranchers fantasize about life on the open range. Lester has started six games in Oakland throughout his career, allowing four homers with an ERA of 3.52 in 38.1 IP, slightly better than his career ERA in Fenway park.
Moving into Oakland’s spacious digs isn’t the only plus for Lester, as he’ll also get to stay away from Camden Yards and the Rogers Centre, two of baseball’s best hitter’s parks. Yes, Lester may have to go into Texas at some point, but the Rangers are a broken mess, and he’ll also get the chance to punish Seattle like his red-headed step-child. Lester’s value increases slightly, but he’ll still be a free agent come November, so his keeper value is still up in the air.
Cespedes, however, will be in Boston next season, so we can say with a little more certainty how his longer-term value will be altered; moving from O.co to Fenway could be a big boost for Cespedes’ batting average and HR totals. Cespedes pulls the ball twice as often as he goes the other way, and those tendencies will be rewarded by the Green Monster, especially if he abandons the opposite field all-together, which wouldn’t be a surprise to see. I doubt Cespedes ever bats .290 again, but seeing his average rise from .250 to .270 wouldn’t be a surprise, and neither would an uptick in HRs. Cespedes’ last two months probably aren’t going to be worth much more than his first four, but his value will certainly rise in next year’s drafts, especially if Fenway proves to be a friendly home.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
what about the impact of David Ross’ pitch framing
I expect Ks to go down, but peripherals to remain the same. The park factors will balance it out.
Chavez back to the pen?
For now, but Hammel has been pretty bad since coming over from the Cubs and if he gets lit up next week by Tampa Bay, I could see them flipping that and keeping Chavez, who granted hasnt been much better lately, in the rotation.
No chance Billy is done dealing. Athletics will be very active come August, assuming they don’t run away from the Angels. Goes without saying that he’s all-in and the A’s still have some obvious areas to improve.
It’s not just Fenway, you’re right. As the schedules work out (and as I’ve already stated in Eno’s chat,) if Cespedes remained an Athletic, he would have 11 games in hitters parks over the next 2 months. As a Red Sox, that number goes to 40!
Not that it matters for Fantasy, but no competitive balance pick goes with Cespedes to Boston. His contract doesn’t allow it (to enable him to become a true free agent after 2015, with no arbitration years).
You’re thinking of a compensation pick if he leaves as a free agent. That’s not what’s involved here though. The A’s actually traded a draft pick, between the 2nd and 3rd rounds I believe, to the Red Sox. It’s a new tradable lottery-based pick that was added in the last CBA.
The Sox will most likely end up with a protected 1st round pick next season so it won’t cost them if they do make a run at Lester in Free Agency.
He can’t be tagged with a QO anyways, since he won’t have played a full season for Oakland.
I’ll show you a QO.