Fantasy Hitter Talent Evaluation with Rankings

by
October 18, 2022

The following process is how I create my rankings each season. I start with the hitter’s talent from projections and then adjust the playing time and talent. With no projections currently available, the talent aspect uses the rest-of-season Steamer600 projections. As more and historically better projections become available, I will transition to them. I’m just setting a baseline and can already guess I’m going to get some blowback on Esteury Ruiz (insane stolen base projection), Jose Siri (has 20/30 potential but on the Rays), and Seiya Suzuki (insane projection from Steamer).

Again, my valuations start with projections and then take other factors into account. I will include the same information and adjustments for each player. I try not to pick and choose what applies to who and remain consistent.

I’m going to try to fit as many of the factors into the rankings. I want to include about 10 items on each hitter, but the display page becomes too crowded. With the help of the others at FanGraphs, we are working on aesthetically inserting all the information. Possibly I’ll end up with a separate page like Roster Resource.

The following rankings set are Roto (AVG) based. I am considering adding an on-base and points ranking (e.g. ESPN, Yahoo, Ottoneu, and CBS). I just don’t want to open up a huge can of worms.

The first list is the top-300 hitters with all positions, besides catchers, combined. I went with this approach for three reasons. Besides catchers, positional scarcity hasn’t been a thing for five to ten years depending on the format. No one position needs to get a boost. Second, drafts don’t go one position at a time so the tradeoff isn’t between first basemen but all hitters. Finally, each fantasy game has its own minimum games played requirement for each position’s eligibility, so positional rankings will vary on the format.

I separated out catchers into their own ranking and even then they are a mess. Guys like Sean Murphy and Salvador Perez will be pushing 600 PA if healthy. For now, I’m limiting their value to 450 PA but know I need to bump up the total playing time for some guys.

The core of these rankings are the above projections combined with the Standings Gain Points formua created from this season’s NFBC Main Event (available once The Process is published). I haven’t adjusted any values for any upcoming changes (e.g. balanced schedule, no shift) as I’m still working through them.

Besides a ranking of hitter “talent”, here is some of the information I included. The power, plate discipline, and hitting grades are based on my previous work with StatCast projections. For now, the grades are heavily weighted on their 2022 results.

  • Age
  • Batter handedness.
  • Power grade: With the ball changing all the time, this grade points to home run power.
  • Plate discipline: I’d like to combine both walks and strikeouts into one, but I don’t think it’s possible. Hitters can fall high or low in each factor and each will change a player’s value. Also, a bigger score means the hitter is good at the trait (e.g. a high K% means the hitter limits strikeouts).
  • Ability to get hits: Basically BABIP
  • Hitter talent as seen by his OPS projection. I’ve found that as hitters hover around a .650 OPS, they get benched or demoted.
  • Handedness splits: Does the hitter have a chance of ending up in a platoon? Like with the overall OPS, the chance of getting platooned happens when one of a hitter’s splits is at or under a .650 OPS.
  • Games at each position.
  • Defensive talent: Elite defenders (e.g. Michael A. Taylor and Jonathan Schoop) will get a longer leash than those in a Lucas Duda defensive mold. I’m going with a plus/minus approach for now. A plus puts the fielder in the league’s top 20% and a negative sign means near the bottom 20%.

Besides the information already incorporated, I plan on adding the following:

  • Getting into the details, especially playing time, as news becomes available. The possible top two picks, Aaron Judge and Trey Turner, are free agents. Do they resign with their current team or do they go to a worse situation (Judge to the Giants, Turner to the Cubs)?
  • Injury information once I compile it.
  • Besides catchers, will there be any positional adjustment? I’d like better projections before declaring a change is needed.
  • What rookies need to be included? Prospect analysis has never been my expertise and I’m not going to fake having a clue who is good or not. I rely on others for that. I’ll start incorporating them when news becomes available like with the Cubs Matt Mervis and Brennen Davis.
  • Balanced schedule adjustments. From some initial work, players in the two Central Divisions will need to be downgraded. Or everyone else pushed up.
  • How the new rules changes will affect stolen bases (bigger bases, limited throw overs, pitch clock) and base hits (no shift, tired pitchers)? I have started looking into these questions and have some ideas. Also, I need to find out how the projections are going to handle them.
  • Breakout and bust designations from other Rotographs writers.

Let me know if I missed any obvious factors to include. Again, this ranking is based on the talent from one dated projection set with everyone set to the same playing time. As the season nears, the rankings will clear up.

I’m sure some people will just dismiss the list but I’ve already found it helpful to help find potential breakouts. Dairon Blanco (speed) and Wynton Bernard (speed and power) are both highly ranked and if they get a full-time role, fantasy managers should notice.

Without further ado, here is the first set of rankings for everyone to rip apart with their superior insight.

Initial 2023 Hitter Talent Rankings
Rank Name Age Bats Proj OPS HR Power BABIP BB% K% Defense vs RHP vs LHP C 1st 2nd SS 3rd OF
1 Fernando Tatis Jr. 23 R .862 NA NA NA NA 0 .981 .910 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Aaron Judge 30 R .939 99 64 85 37 0 1.011 .993 0 0 0 0 0 151
3 Kyle Tucker 25 L .867 80 46 77 66 0 .888 .800 0 0 0 0 0 147
4 Ronald Acuna Jr. 24 R .823 88 80 68 41 0 .884 .847 0 0 0 0 0 93
5 Randy Arozarena 27 R .826 49 88 38 24 0 .745 .955 0 0 0 0 0 129
6 Yordan Alvarez 25 L .923 98 64 72 83 – .947 .940 0 0 0 0 0 56
7 Jose Ramirez 29 B .845 76 37 47 93 0 .899 .897 0 0 0 0 127 0
8 Seiya Suzuki 27 R .875 52 73 88 71 0 .742 .847 0 0 0 0 0 106
9 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 23 R .874 78 84 42 70 – .901 .854 0 128 0 0 1 0
10 Byron Buxton 28 R .812 99 57 62 20 + .878 .927 0 0 0 0 0 57
11 Trea Turner 29 R .791 74 89 31 62 0 .822 1.038 0 0 0 160 0 0
12 Bryce Harper 29 L .880 87 74 14 40 0 1.039 .820 0 0 0 0 0 8
13 Mookie Betts 29 R .847 92 64 89 93 0 .881 .862 0 0 7 0 0 136
14 Julio Rodriguez 21 R .789 89 92 28 35 0 .860 .831 0 0 0 0 0 130
15 Esteury Ruiz 23 R .695 4 49 39 41 0 .429 .465 0 0 0 0 0 19
16 Freddie Freeman 32 L .868 85 71 51 73 0 .997 .783 0 159 0 0 0 0
17 Luis Robert 24 R .791 61 77 5 64 0 .755 .994 0 0 0 0 0 91
18 Jose Siri 26 R .756 39 85 15 14 + .683 .570 0 0 0 0 0 100
19 Bobby Witt Jr. 22 R .741 60 82 22 55 0 .724 .717 0 0 0 98 55 0
20 Bo Bichette 24 R .783 67 81 26 69 0 .801 .880 0 0 0 157 0 0
21 Juan Soto 23 L .919 74 72 98 76 – 1.029 .835 0 0 0 0 0 151
22 Rafael Devers 25 L .857 85 65 21 23 0 .943 .723 0 0 0 0 138 0
23 Pete Alonso 27 R .838 89 25 33 74 – .864 .846 0 134 0 0 0 0
24 Shohei Ohtani 27 L .820 87 76 50 29 – .902 .857 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 24 L .734 94 90 47 16 0 .785 .661 0 0 60 0 0 0
26 Cedric Mullins II 27 L .741 64 69 45 58 0 .845 .679 0 0 0 0 0 150
27 Jose Altuve 32 R .819 49 45 53 91 0 .832 .866 0 0 135 0 0 0
28 Adalberto Mondesi 26 B .634 18 85 51 8 + .596 .876 0 0 0 15 0 0
29 Eloy Jimenez 25 R .818 89 53 37 27 – .854 .764 0 0 0 0 0 30
30 Vidal Brujan 24 B .698 25 39 56 71 0 .355 .570 0 0 31 5 1 21
31 Oneil Cruz 23 L .768 75 95 38 33 0 .857 .513 0 0 0 79 0 1
32 Giancarlo Stanton 32 R .816 85 35 65 8 – .841 .787 0 0 0 0 0 38
33 George Springer 32 R .802 77 75 79 35 0 .863 .843 0 0 0 0 0 112
34 Mike Trout 30 R .870 97 13 81 20 0 1.039 .938 0 0 0 0 0 111
35 Starling Marte 33 R .723 35 92 36 67 0 .825 .798 0 0 0 0 0 118
36 Kyle Schwarber 29 L .811 98 58 88 32 – .903 .708 0 0 0 0 0 139
37 Teoscar Hernandez 29 R .768 93 69 49 17 0 .796 1.053 0 0 0 0 0 125
38 Tyler O’Neill 27 R .751 82 77 72 35 0 .782 .848 0 0 0 0 0 104
39 Royce Lewis 23 R .749 89 7 30 77 + .813 1.069 0 0 0 11 0 1
40 Bubba Thompson 24 R .648 9 89 18 16 0 .656 .523 0 0 0 0 0 54
41 Paul Goldschmidt 34 R .840 82 47 80 31 0 .861 1.174 0 128 0 0 0 0
42 Vinnie Pasquantino 24 L .848 87 32 66 92 – .826 .854 0 37 0 0 0 0
43 Ian Happ 27 B .799 60 65 58 46 0 .804 .724 0 0 0 0 0 149
44 Corey Seager 28 L .839 84 48 48 68 0 .860 .820 0 0 0 144 0 0
46 Michael Harris II 21 L .745 47 99 9 73 0 .943 .649 0 0 0 0 0 114
47 Austin Riley 25 R .820 95 51 39 46 0 .850 .910 0 1 0 0 159 0
48 Manny Machado 29 R .789 93 56 38 50 0 .892 .850 0 0 0 0 134 0
49 Trevor Story 29 R .754 78 55 31 34 0 .739 .953 0 0 94 0 0 0
50 Dairon Blanco 29 R .673 0 100 2 24 + .000 1.333 0 0 0 0 0 3
51 Jon Berti 32 R .665 22 98 83 66 0 .677 .631 0 0 47 10 37 19
52 Marcus Semien 31 R .761 69 51 77 78 0 .791 .772 0 0 148 17 0 0
53 Adolis Garcia 29 R .711 89 88 16 13 0 .764 .709 0 0 0 0 0 150
54 Anthony Rizzo 32 L .803 89 26 50 68 0 .769 .854 0 120 0 0 0 0
55 Wander Franco 21 B .824 41 92 41 96 0 .718 .926 0 0 0 73 0 0
56 Jake McCarthy 24 L .717 25 97 47 39 0 .764 .747 0 0 0 0 0 91
57 Gleyber Torres 25 R .762 82 46 60 31 0 .701 .807 0 0 124 6 0 0
58 Rowdy Tellez 27 L .796 86 25 50 63 – .786 .691 0 139 0 0 0 0
59 Carlos Correa 27 R .827 77 36 63 68 0 .801 .867 0 0 0 132 0 0
60 Xander Bogaerts 29 R .814 53 63 62 53 0 .820 .925 0 0 0 146 0 0
61 Andres Gimenez 23 L .748 49 81 14 53 + .766 .802 0 0 125 18 0 0
62 Oswald Peraza 22 R .688 16 86 90 93 0 .861 .684 0 0 4 12 0 0
63 Franmil Reyes 26 R .769 76 64 46 19 – .750 .754 0 0 0 0 0 15
64 Nolan Arenado 31 R .797 88 9 34 88 + .818 .887 0 0 0 0 131 0
65 Tommy Edman 27 B .721 40 95 37 86 + .677 .796 0 0 89 80 8 3
66 Nathaniel Lowe 26 L .814 57 67 42 63 – .803 .821 0 153 0 0 0 0
67 Jake Fraley 27 L .772 29 36 71 69 – .829 .495 0 0 0 0 0 52
68 Tim Anderson 29 R .730 37 96 8 69 0 .740 .998 0 0 0 79 0 0
69 Nico Hoerner 25 R .758 27 87 30 95 + .719 .707 0 0 0 133 1 0
70 Jorge Mateo 27 R .637 38 91 18 40 0 .655 .624 0 0 0 149 0 0
71 Wynton Bernard 31 R .694 5 99 18 14 0 .643 .500 0 0 0 0 0 12
72 Hunter Renfroe 30 R .761 87 18 35 47 0 .763 .858 0 1 0 0 0 118
73 Josh Naylor 25 L .782 67 53 24 88 0 .799 .540 0 88 0 0 0 5
74 Harold Ramirez 27 R .784 50 68 5 64 – .682 .817 0 32 0 0 0 29
75 Patrick Wisdom 30 R .736 96 23 65 12 0 .728 .855 0 18 0 0 105 14
76 Christopher Morel 23 R .725 58 88 50 4 0 .782 .627 0 0 33 13 18 58
77 James Outman 25 L .750 100 54 43 29 0 1.488 .500 0 0 0 0 0 4
78 Harrison Bader 28 R .712 22 75 23 89 + .724 .773 0 0 0 0 0 85
79 Matt Olson 28 L .799 93 20 51 26 0 .832 .846 0 162 0 0 0 0
80 Stone Garrett 26 R .706 88 49 20 7 0 .803 .878 0 0 0 0 0 13
81 Albert Pujols 42 R .757 96 14 24 79 0 .653 .954 0 22 0 0 0 0
82 Alex Bregman 28 R .829 81 9 95 91 0 .812 .786 0 0 0 0 154 0
83 Jorge Polanco 28 B .763 88 8 68 60 0 .792 .733 0 0 97 6 0 0
84 Manuel Margot 27 R .749 35 75 35 56 0 .656 .770 0 0 0 0 0 79
85 Oscar Gonzalez 24 R .759 54 56 3 47 0 .807 .745 0 0 0 0 0 84
86 Bryan Reynolds 27 B .803 70 70 36 66 0 .828 .828 0 0 0 0 0 128
87 Ozzie Albies 25 B .727 38 21 4 62 0 .751 .826 0 0 64 0 0 0
88 Miguel Vargas 22 R .756 70 17 54 18 – .439 .471 0 8 0 0 1 7
89 Anthony Santander 27 B .761 90 7 34 72 0 .759 .796 0 0 0 0 0 122
90 Christian Walker 31 R .780 84 28 87 65 0 .768 .759 0 150 0 0 0 0
91 Whit Merrifield 33 R .691 29 59 46 67 0 .701 .723 0 2 83 0 0 63
92 Lars Nootbaar 24 L .786 81 84 89 45 0 .756 .853 0 0 0 0 0 102
93 Yandy Diaz 30 R .842 63 67 94 92 0 .761 .837 0 17 0 0 102 0
94 Jose Miranda 24 R .767 78 23 24 78 – .721 .821 0 77 0 0 34 0
95 Cody Bellinger 26 L .708 77 52 45 33 0 .691 .548 0 0 0 0 0 144
96 Estevan Florial 24 L .680 15 82 71 3 0 .605 .444 0 0 0 0 0 16
97 Francisco Lindor 28 B .734 68 73 45 73 + .767 .752 0 0 0 159 0 0
98 Narciso Crook 26 R .730 90 52 30 34 0 .583 .600 0 0 0 0 0 3
99 Jose Abreu 35 R .794 85 53 47 76 – .839 .910 0 128 0 0 0 0
100 J.D. Martinez 34 R .798 63 32 36 37 – .783 .859 0 0 0 0 0 0
101 Brandon Lowe 27 L .794 70 43 43 22 0 .853 .775 0 0 53 0 0 1
102 Christian Yelich 30 L .771 52 98 80 77 – .750 .732 0 0 0 0 0 115
103 T.J. Friedl 26 L .747 56 61 72 86 0 .722 1.054 0 0 0 0 0 64
104 Ji-Hwan Bae 22 L .712 6 94 87 26 – 1.021 .125 0 0 4 0 0 6
105 Tyler Wade 27 L .646 7 69 69 87 0 .621 .546 0 0 31 19 12 14
106 Alec Burleson 23 L .767 82 88 59 36 – .527 .667 0 6 0 0 0 11
107 Ryan Mountcastle 25 R .747 78 40 17 28 – .776 .768 0 124 0 0 0 0
108 Mark Payton 30 L .738 8 3 12 87 0 .406 .762 0 0 0 0 0 10
109 Tim Locastro 29 R .664 40 80 21 9 0 .560 .701 0 0 0 0 0 27
110 Tommy Pham 34 R .752 75 86 86 67 – .672 .763 0 0 0 0 0 134
111 C.J. Cron 32 R .758 65 36 32 61 – .854 .809 0 121 0 0 0 0
112 Darick Hall 26 L .746 88 28 26 42 – .865 .167 0 7 0 0 0 0
113 Rafael Ortega 31 L .712 59 37 69 80 0 .790 .452 0 0 0 0 0 97
114 Edward Olivares 26 R .726 68 66 40 55 – .719 .673 0 0 0 0 0 40
115 Kolten Wong 31 L .727 56 74 86 79 0 .790 .660 0 0 131 1 0 0
116 Trayce Thompson 31 R .724 98 54 77 12 0 .957 .784 0 0 0 0 0 83
117 Willy Adames 26 R .745 84 32 53 40 0 .797 .770 0 0 0 136 0 0
118 Nelson Velazquez 23 R .697 72 84 69 6 0 .599 .756 0 0 0 0 0 69
119 Bobby Dalbec 27 R .748 77 68 54 16 – .696 .855 0 89 2 1 24 0
120 Corbin Carroll 21 L .731 31 86 39 30 + .917 .590 0 0 0 0 0 32
121 Sean Bouchard 26 R .765 81 9 88 38 – 1.102 .687 0 0 0 0 0 26
122 Ezequiel Tovar 20 R .714 31 24 13 33 – .345 1.091 0 0 0 9 0 0
123 Joc Pederson 30 L .760 95 61 51 72 – .794 .731 0 0 0 0 0 120
124 Steven Kwan 24 L .767 9 77 93 97 0 .811 .639 0 0 0 0 0 150
125 Yairo Munoz 27 R .693 29 90 5 67 0 .727 .619 0 0 14 0 8 3
126 Isaac Paredes 23 R .792 74 13 91 82 0 .641 .819 0 29 43 1 50 0
128 Josh Lowe 24 L .735 45 90 61 10 0 .748 .269 0 0 0 0 0 52
129 Jeremy Pena 24 R .693 53 82 15 70 + .677 .817 0 0 0 134 0 0
130 Amed Rosario 26 R .721 32 98 12 69 0 .674 .812 0 0 0 140 0 6
131 Jarren Duran 25 L .708 32 97 40 72 – .669 .445 0 0 0 0 0 58
132 Justin Turner 37 R .775 74 24 60 65 0 .835 .776 0 0 0 0 66 0
133 Andrew Benintendi 27 L .758 40 63 79 55 0 .768 .728 0 0 0 0 0 124
134 Gunnar Henderson 21 L .762 77 91 92 32 0 .872 .448 0 0 3 7 24 0
135 J.J. Matijevic 26 L .718 32 78 13 42 0 .612 .384 0 10 0 0 0 1
136 Oswaldo Cabrera 23 B .703 61 30 19 63 + .741 .737 0 3 3 4 3 36
137 Jean Segura 32 R .718 21 87 19 89 0 .715 .866 0 0 97 1 0 0
138 Dylan Moore 29 R .630 69 75 97 31 0 .681 .738 0 8 12 26 2 64
139 Rhys Hoskins 29 R .771 90 24 85 56 – .772 .980 0 151 0 0 0 0
140 Alex Verdugo 26 L .778 36 54 72 94 0 .821 .649 0 0 0 0 0 154
141 Brewer Hicklen 26 R .670 NA NA 1 0 0 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 5
142 Aristides Aquino 28 R .706 67 13 13 12 0 .668 .619 0 0 0 0 0 78
143 Thairo Estrada 26 R .693 27 85 36 83 0 .686 .787 0 0 102 37 3 19
144 Christian Arroyo 27 R .743 56 79 12 88 0 .725 .788 0 9 40 14 10 17
145 Juan Yepez 24 R .756 63 7 19 75 – .755 .695 0 15 0 0 6 40
146 A.J. Pollock 34 R .730 70 56 31 75 0 .729 .954 0 0 0 0 0 158
147 Max Muncy 31 L .778 95 15 96 30 0 .781 .821 0 3 31 0 84 0
148 Dansby Swanson 28 R .706 85 62 66 18 + .776 .770 0 0 0 161 0 0
149 Gavin Sheets 26 L .740 49 12 26 61 – .785 .405 0 13 0 0 0 88
150 Nolan Gorman 22 L .730 92 20 41 18 – .725 .664 0 0 68 0 0 1
151 Kyle Garlick 30 R .712 94 27 30 18 – .583 .805 0 0 0 0 0 50
152 Jordan Luplow 28 R .734 62 30 78 33 0 .689 .697 0 1 0 0 1 68
153 Andrew Vaughn 24 R .762 73 60 32 81 – .691 .841 0 23 2 0 0 89
154 Will Brennan 24 L .750 59 97 2 77 – .991 .333 0 0 0 0 0 10
155 Miguel Andujar 27 R .723 30 85 11 68 – .620 .628 0 1 0 0 0 23
156 Ramon Laureano 27 R .695 63 59 54 38 0 .690 .763 0 0 0 0 0 105
157 Kris Bryant 30 R .756 35 21 82 89 – .762 .920 0 0 0 0 0 30
158 Vaughn Grissom 21 R .722 54 72 23 81 – .728 .940 0 0 40 2 0 0
159 Elehuris Montero 23 R .729 73 42 14 36 0 .633 .809 0 16 0 0 23 0
160 Kevin Pillar 33 R .697 37 29 23 24 0 .682 .798 0 0 0 0 0 5
161 Alex Kirilloff 24 L .732 50 57 42 68 – .688 .708 0 18 0 0 0 29
162 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 28 R .738 72 54 55 67 0 .801 .741 0 8 0 0 0 105
163 Calvin Mitchell 23 L .738 69 66 32 83 – .616 .689 0 0 0 0 0 54
164 Stuart Fairchild 26 R .718 77 62 95 18 0 .719 .790 0 0 0 0 0 46
165 Ty France 27 R .769 37 33 36 91 – .806 .786 0 127 1 0 6 0
166 Nick Castellanos 30 R .727 41 39 9 44 – .807 .825 0 0 0 0 0 124
167 Randal Grichuk 30 R .714 54 81 25 77 0 .672 .858 0 0 0 0 0 158
168 Raimel Tapia 28 L .692 24 94 6 78 0 .701 .702 0 0 0 0 0 134
169 Miles Mastrobuoni 26 L .746 4 92 98 88 – .423 .000 0 0 6 0 0 3
170 Seth Brown 29 L .717 78 55 48 49 0 .781 .539 0 84 0 0 0 87
171 Brandon Dixon 30 R .698 27 9 97 43 0 .556 .100 0 0 0 0 2 1
172 Monte Harrison 26 R .616 99 100 65 1 0 .583 .499 0 0 0 0 0 9
173 Mike Siani 22 L .653 38 3 86 36 0 .333 NA 0 0 0 0 0 9
174 Jonathan India 25 R .755 36 33 76 68 0 .783 .775 0 0 86 0 0 0
175 Spencer Steer 24 R .751 39 26 74 62 0 .534 1.014 0 9 5 0 14 0
176 Ke’Bryan Hayes 25 R .713 51 95 62 90 + .676 .795 0 0 0 3 133 0
177 Nate Eaton 25 R .661 19 95 54 54 0 .651 .886 0 0 0 0 15 31
178 Taylor Ward 28 R .759 81 39 90 74 0 .821 .762 0 0 0 0 2 134
179 Jonathan Aranda 24 L .776 68 62 55 61 – .626 .286 0 11 13 0 6 1
180 Oscar Mercado 27 R .683 50 35 54 52 0 .553 .641 0 0 0 0 0 53
181 Matt Vierling 25 R .697 71 81 52 79 0 .624 .766 0 2 4 0 5 128
182 Miguel Sano 29 R .722 99 5 94 29 – .782 .630 0 19 0 0 0 0
183 Kyle Isbel 25 L .675 86 94 51 81 0 .657 .577 0 0 0 0 0 108
184 Max Kepler 29 L .728 64 55 75 86 0 .762 .552 0 0 0 0 0 113
185 Joey Meneses 30 R .732 79 58 40 58 – .857 1.084 0 40 0 0 0 25
186 Matt Wallner 24 L .729 90 49 60 5 – .858 .343 0 0 0 0 0 16
187 Joey Gallo 28 L .723 98 26 61 6 0 .756 .664 0 1 0 0 0 126
188 Mark Mathias 27 R .706 86 74 82 16 0 .795 .753 0 3 6 0 2 4
189 Ketel Marte 28 B .756 75 59 46 66 0 .707 .992 0 0 94 0 0 0
190 Kyle Stowers 24 L .743 93 47 26 30 0 .669 2.750 0 0 0 0 0 25
191 Jack Suwinski 23 L .722 73 36 67 47 0 .794 .511 0 0 0 0 0 113
192 Michael Conforto 29 L .765 NA NA NA NA 0 .844 .690 0 0 0 0 0 0
193 Josh Jung 24 R .712 48 67 27 46 0 .531 .857 0 0 0 0 25 0
194 Josh Rojas 28 L .704 38 79 89 51 0 .736 .702 0 0 26 0 89 0
195 Eric Hosmer 32 L .759 36 59 26 93 – .760 .700 0 102 0 0 0 0
196 Anthony Alford 27 R .656 2 1 0 98 0 .806 .550 0 0 0 0 0 3
197 Marcell Ozuna 31 R .724 86 25 27 48 – .809 .688 0 0 0 0 0 52
198 Bryson Stott 24 L .704 36 74 55 82 0 .623 .751 0 0 47 83 2 0
199 Abraham Almonte 33 B .756 22 71 81 40 – .773 .389 0 0 0 0 0 9
200 Odubel Herrera 30 L .711 33 96 11 82 0 .709 .698 0 0 0 0 0 66
201 Nick Senzel 27 R .708 30 52 52 70 0 .624 .570 0 0 1 0 2 101
202 Brent Rooker 27 R .731 66 14 53 11 – .682 .644 0 0 0 0 0 9
203 Matt Chapman 29 R .741 97 25 94 23 + .736 .774 0 0 0 0 153 0
204 Tyrone Taylor 28 R .700 63 47 34 53 0 .744 .764 0 0 0 0 0 127
205 Elvis Andrus 33 R .674 38 65 47 70 0 .663 .637 0 0 0 143 0 0
206 Sam Haggerty 28 B .637 16 83 63 28 0 .541 .924 0 0 4 0 0 76
207 Austin Hays 26 R .722 59 48 19 80 0 .708 .808 0 0 0 0 0 150
208 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 27 R .672 14 91 42 97 0 .664 .664 0 0 0 138 6 0
209 Leody Taveras 23 B .660 41 78 49 45 0 .618 .639 0 0 0 0 0 93
210 Romy Gonzalez 25 R .661 60 96 9 16 0 .482 .874 0 0 25 3 0 3
211 Frank Schwindel 30 R .715 49 23 15 49 – .771 .835 0 48 0 0 0 0
212 Nick Solak 27 R .712 28 88 78 37 0 .638 .736 0 0 1 0 0 22
213 Michael Massey 24 L .712 83 49 19 33 0 .693 .646 0 0 48 0 1 0
214 Ezequiel Duran 23 R .681 24 77 9 28 0 .619 .718 0 0 9 0 51 0
215 Garrett Mitchell 23 L .665 38 92 75 43 + .821 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 28
216 Michael Brantley 35 L .755 70 51 83 91 0 .892 .628 0 0 0 0 0 29
217 Greg Allen 29 B .649 41 88 75 24 0 .620 .590 0 0 0 0 0 47
218 Edwin Rios 28 L .688 83 34 30 8 0 .724 .813 0 4 0 0 4 0
219 Roman Quinn 29 B .655 97 63 65 30 0 .670 .456 0 0 0 0 0 47
220 Rodolfo Castro 23 B .694 44 72 53 24 0 .619 .894 0 0 32 19 24 0
221 Rob Refsnyder 31 R .753 80 43 81 35 0 .666 .867 0 0 0 0 0 51
222 Franchy Cordero 27 L .732 85 75 44 13 – .657 .530 0 53 0 0 0 40
223 Kerry Carpenter 24 L .707 60 43 28 45 0 .851 .598 0 0 0 0 0 20
224 Ben DeLuzio 27 R .662 7 42 57 11 + .528 .333 0 0 0 0 0 18
225 Yonny Hernandez 24 B .617 1 100 91 87 0 .578 .380 0 0 2 0 10 0
226 Mauricio Dubon 27 R .679 26 28 13 75 0 .562 .780 0 0 17 21 3 71
227 Mitch Haniger 31 R .728 93 12 68 27 – .741 .885 0 0 0 0 0 47
228 Alek Thomas 22 L .711 18 86 28 48 0 .665 .471 0 0 0 0 0 112
229 Luke Williams 25 R .610 21 76 58 37 0 .553 .687 0 1 13 0 31 26
230 DJ LeMahieu 33 R .750 24 84 79 94 0 .769 .757 0 35 41 0 47 0
231 Corey Dickerson 33 L .730 27 35 4 57 0 .744 .564 0 0 0 0 0 70
232 Triston Casas 22 L .781 40 83 98 47 0 .817 .611 0 27 0 0 0 0
233 Jeff McNeil 30 L .761 23 44 52 85 0 .805 .716 0 0 106 0 1 47
234 Keston Hiura 25 R .694 87 63 40 5 0 .738 .582 0 33 14 0 0 5
235 Jeter Downs 23 R .642 23 8 6 9 0 .462 .368 0 0 8 3 6 0
236 Michael Toglia 23 B .697 80 50 41 35 – .679 .594 0 15 0 0 0 17
237 Luke Raley 27 L .721 58 15 44 5 0 .621 .342 0 3 0 0 0 15
238 Nick Gordon 26 L .669 80 72 11 30 0 .758 .534 0 0 36 17 1 100
239 Mark Contreras 27 L .640 97 86 9 29 0 .511 .214 0 0 0 0 0 25
240 Josh Bell 29 B .758 47 58 77 62 – .776 .795 0 124 0 0 0 0
241 Zach McKinstry 27 L .703 39 91 46 79 0 .664 .605 0 0 21 10 22 4
242 Jared Young 26 L .703 96 84 74 5 – .732 .000 0 2 0 0 0 1
243 Bryan De La Cruz 25 R .721 84 70 32 38 0 .776 .666 0 0 0 0 0 122
244 Ryan McMahon 27 L .710 73 74 75 41 0 .789 .667 0 1 10 0 145 0
245 Alec Bohm 25 R .717 55 66 38 70 0 .652 .873 0 10 0 0 135 0
246 Kyle Farmer 31 R .717 43 39 20 92 0 .653 .880 0 2 0 98 36 0
247 Lorenzo Cain 36 R .672 20 88 46 58 0 .694 .512 0 0 0 0 0 42
248 Andrew McCutchen 35 R .711 68 43 93 51 – .672 .901 0 0 0 0 0 53
249 Anthony Rendon 32 R .765 71 17 96 78 0 .757 .827 0 0 0 0 47 0
250 Jesus Aguilar 32 R .716 61 9 17 51 – .739 .735 0 63 0 0 4 0
251 Jorge Soler 30 R .731 87 24 65 24 – .708 .828 0 0 0 0 0 57
252 Drew Waters 23 B .680 22 51 64 27 – .814 .769 0 0 0 0 0 33
253 Eguy Rosario 22 R .661 2 0 98 5 0 .650 .000 0 0 0 2 4 0
254 Jesus Sanchez 24 L .723 62 69 24 54 0 .760 .558 0 0 0 0 0 91
255 Kevin Kiermaier 32 L .691 29 91 52 45 + .707 .640 0 0 0 0 0 60
256 Mike Moustakas 33 L .706 61 18 11 43 0 .730 .529 0 24 0 0 25 0
257 Alan Trejo 26 R .674 42 29 10 40 0 .735 .567 0 0 13 20 2 0
258 Eddie Rosario 30 L .671 46 50 7 31 – .742 .595 0 0 0 0 0 69
259 Josh Donaldson 36 R .733 80 37 44 10 0 .736 .830 0 0 0 0 104 0
260 Brandon Nimmo 29 L .775 35 89 90 79 0 .850 .778 0 0 0 0 0 151
261 Jake Burger 26 R .711 76 42 17 15 – .724 .892 0 0 3 0 37 0
262 Adam Engel 30 R .621 45 77 48 29 0 .749 .577 0 0 0 0 0 115
263 Conner Capel 25 L .696 25 82 76 54 + .847 1.250 0 0 0 0 0 20
264 Luis Rengifo 25 B .694 34 66 16 76 0 .605 .752 0 0 99 19 39 6
265 Pablo Reyes 28 R .679 3 35 14 98 0 .647 .705 0 0 0 3 2 0
266 Austin Slater 29 R .683 35 97 62 26 0 .635 .890 0 0 0 0 0 136
267 Adam Haseley 26 L .660 11 99 34 63 0 .629 .611 0 0 0 0 0 12
269 Brett Baty 22 L .719 21 33 71 90 0 .695 .222 0 0 0 0 11 0
270 Brendan Rodgers 25 R .728 50 79 62 71 0 .676 .912 0 0 134 0 0 0
271 Yoan Moncada 27 B .726 52 34 54 42 0 .713 .729 0 0 0 0 101 0
272 Joey Votto 38 L .742 62 23 70 26 – .883 .698 0 76 0 0 0 0
273 Luis Arraez 25 L .738 21 42 72 97 0 .798 .660 0 65 41 0 7 0
274 Will Benson 24 L .716 27 36 79 46 – .479 .167 0 0 0 0 0 20
275 Javier Baez 29 R .660 48 80 2 24 0 .672 .841 0 0 0 133 0 0
276 Brendan Donovan 25 L .763 30 70 92 92 0 .777 .749 0 16 38 7 31 39
277 Gavin Lux 24 L .720 54 94 78 61 0 .748 .597 0 0 102 9 0 28
278 Travis Blankenhorn 25 L .677 0 31 74 98 0 .649 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0
279 CJ Abrams 21 L .648 17 90 7 66 0 .702 .387 0 0 13 75 0 3
280 David Peralta 34 L .746 82 33 28 65 0 .762 .618 0 0 0 0 0 113
281 Matt Davidson 31 R .716 43 24 20 77 – .307 .813 0 1 0 0 9 0
282 Sam Hilliard 28 L .666 80 87 92 7 0 .685 .625 0 0 0 0 0 76
283 Brandon Drury 29 R .696 80 45 45 79 0 .720 .899 0 30 27 2 67 1
284 Jonathan Villar 31 B .628 19 100 51 13 – .664 .665 0 0 29 2 28 0
285 Orlando Arcia 27 R .701 67 27 56 71 0 .727 .645 0 0 50 1 4 6
286 Ha-seong Kim 26 R .684 52 47 77 74 0 .653 .735 0 0 0 131 24 0
287 Mike Yastrzemski 31 L .720 87 38 87 60 0 .816 .647 0 0 0 0 0 197
288 Emmanuel Rivera 26 R .704 49 69 55 62 0 .660 .753 0 5 0 0 86 0
289 Eli White 28 R .615 45 53 84 4 + .625 .458 0 0 0 0 0 44
290 Trent Grisham 25 L .691 57 52 88 32 0 .698 .734 0 0 0 0 0 148
291 Richie Martin 27 R .616 19 99 90 37 0 .492 .647 0 0 10 2 0 0
292 Aledmys Diaz 31 R .699 68 29 37 64 0 .690 .748 0 6 22 18 10 29
293 Avisail Garcia 31 R .688 48 87 10 28 0 .672 .821 0 0 0 0 0 86
294 Richie Palacios 25 L .705 10 34 63 80 0 .564 .667 0 0 2 0 0 25
295 Matt Carpenter 36 L .740 98 5 93 50 0 .735 .823 0 5 0 0 2 15
296 Mark Vientos 22 R .692 64 22 68 16 – .269 .808 0 0 0 0 2 0
297 Lenyn Sosa 22 R .678 12 60 0 54 0 .475 .000 0 0 6 5 0 0
298 Dylan Carlson 23 B .740 19 62 69 41 0 .686 .869 0 0 0 0 0 135
299 Jaylin Davis 27 R .695 48 56 92 1 0 .905 .426 0 0 0 0 0 8
300 Santiago Espinal 27 R .695 33 30 69 90 0 .673 .802 0 0 120 11 11 0

 

Initial 2023 Catcher Talent Rankings
Rank Name Age Bats Proj OPS HR Power BABIP BB% K% Defense vs RHP vs LHP
1 Will Smith 27 R .820 84 25 92 67 0 .857 .823
2 Daulton Varsho 25 L .751 73 63 40 38 + .781 .615
3 Willson Contreras 30 R .808 79 79 34 34 0 .780 .821
4 Salvador Perez 32 R .757 95 14 7 23 0 .806 .926
5 J.T. Realmuto 31 R .741 78 90 43 44 + .805 .812
6 Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 30 R .746 74 73 3 16 + .695 .685
7 Connor Wong 26 R .744 12 68 50 36 0 .837 .333
8 Danny Jansen 27 R .764 96 10 76 52 + .848 .629
9 Alejandro Kirk 23 R .805 58 44 83 90 0 .782 .807
10 Yainer Diaz 23 R .727 71 4 1 89 0 .619 .000
11 MJ Melendez 23 L .758 84 37 76 32 – .664 .839
12 William Contreras 24 R .741 68 79 58 14 0 .764 .934
13 Adley Rutschman 24 B .782 64 45 83 92 + .889 .552
14 Yan Gomes 34 R .715 28 45 12 87 0 .640 .819
15 Cal Raleigh 25 B .705 95 9 33 20 + .713 .692
16 Mike Zunino 31 R .697 86 5 20 24 + .617 .999
17 Kyle Higashioka 32 R .686 95 19 59 51 + .630 .718
18 Rene Pinto 25 R .707 33 22 16 9 + .584 .481
19 Austin Allen 28 L .712 92 17 6 49 + .546 .347
20 Mitch Garver 31 R .718 93 10 82 30 0 .699 .839
21 Gary Sanchez 29 R .698 94 34 47 38 0 .679 .685
22 Carlos Perez 25 R .688 15 4 21 55 – .667 .000
23 Nick Fortes 25 R .698 66 67 64 74 0 .762 .680
24 Gabriel Moreno 22 R .706 9 59 42 71 + .736 .725
25 Sam Huff 24 R .688 64 41 18 12 0 .760 .784
26 Logan O’Hoppe 22 R .719 5 2 74 18 0 .586 .800
27 Bo Naylor 22 L .692 43 1 97 1 0 .000 .000
28 Tyler Stephenson 25 R .736 53 43 68 57 0 .826 .817
29 Travis d’Arnaud 33 R .708 60 40 25 41 + .775 .829
30 Francisco Mejia 26 B .715 39 12 1 54 0 .615 .756
31 Keibert Ruiz 23 B .704 56 28 23 95 0 .710 .623
32 Yasmani Grandal 33 B .747 56 25 85 65 0 .707 .898
33 Austin Barnes 32 R .687 44 46 98 87 + .671 .674
34 Jonah Heim 27 B .696 83 27 49 70 + .593 .788
35 Ryan Jeffers 25 R .680 84 19 69 58 0 .617 .794
36 Sean Murphy 27 R .726 67 47 47 57 + .749 .745
37 Chuckie Robinson 27 R .663 5 63 6 31 0 .396 .455
38 Christian Vazquez 31 R .658 35 38 33 89 + .713 .685
39 Shea Langeliers 24 R .687 86 17 20 7 – .660 .801
40 Mario Feliciano 23 R .662 99 72 99 9 0 .500 1.000





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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darrenasuMember since 2025
2 years ago

Hmmm. I get projections like this are hard. But any rating that has Arozarena above Yordan or Bryce and Adley as the 13th ranked catcher seems DOA. Appreciate the effort though.

0
Wilmerrr
2 years ago
Reply to  darrenasu

I think the Steamer projections currently on the site are based only on the park in which each team last played. So e.g. for the Rays it is projecting them as playing in Fenway 100% of the time.

0
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
2 years ago
Reply to  darrenasu

Thanks

1
Pirates HurdlesMember since 2024
2 years ago
Reply to  darrenasu

Have to agree with Darren, this “list” is completely useless given the lack of meaningful projections at this time. Murphy at C #36, Blanco as #50 overall, its entirely too heavily skewed by speed throughout. Too many crazy ranks to even mention.

1
Groundout
2 years ago
Reply to  darrenasu

It’s pretty unfair to judge this as a finished product. I’ve tried to generate things like this before — take a bunch of inputs, insert a bunch of weights, see what happens — and you always end up with a lot of noisy weird stuff. Sure, you can always keep tweaking to match what you think things should look like (less speed? more cautious rankings for unproven players?), but you quickly get into the territory of the list reflecting your own preconceptions more than what your inputs are telling you.

So, yeah, might as well just put it out there at this early point and let us draw our own conclusions, make our own adjustments, and figure out who on earth Dairon Blanco and Wynton Bernard are…

5
montrealMember since 2022
2 years ago
Reply to  Groundout

I can assure you neither Dairon Blanco or Wynton Bernard will be playing period. They are 30 years old.

0
Groundout
2 years ago
Reply to  montreal

Lol yeah … but I at least looked them up!

0
shakeappealMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  darrenasu

The difference between a ranking like this and one using a careful weighting of projection systems and playing-time tweaks in March is one of degree, not kind. I immediately exported the tables, because they’re extremely useful.

1