FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 8)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Trevor Larnach: Batting at the top of the Twins lineup with 7 HR and a .245 AVG.
Jake Meyers: Playing centerfield all time while posting a .294 AVG with 2 HR and 7 SB.
Hyeseong Kim 김혜성: Batting ninth as the strong side of a second base platoon. So far, his results look amazing (.452/.485/.581) because of a .520 BABIP. The only issue is his job security once Tommy Edman returns from the IL.
Harrison Bader: Dealing with a groin injury, but does have 4 HR and 4 SB with a .300 AVG in 125 PA. Good add when healthy.
Miguel Andujar: Played his 10th game at third base while starting every game. Hitting .314/.341/.438 with 3 HR helps.
Gabriel Arias: Solid bench bat qualified at second, short, and third with 4 HR and 2 SB. Dropped his K% from 33% to 27%.
Daniel Schneemann: Bats second most of the time while hitting .264/.343/.484 with 5 HR.
Brooks Lee: Batting third or fourth while hitting .240/.288/.394 with 4 HR this season.
Trey Sweeney: Playing every game with a .259 AVG and 4 HR and 2 SB. Ranked a bit lower than similar bats because he lacks positional flexibility.
Luis Urías: Huge sleeper with 6 HR and a .275 AVG while qualified at second and third.
Addison Barger: Solid bat (.250/.311/.441, 2 HR) who is now Toronto’s everyday third baseman.
Daulton Varsho: Already 8 HR in just 49 PA. His .227 AVG will remain low as 39% K% remains. He’s not a regular. In the 16 games since he returned from the IL, he has only started in 11 of them. This may be too low because he has the upside of full-time at-bats.
Gavin Sheets: Solid producer (.291 AVG, 5 HR) who doesn’t seem to be in a platoon.
Will Benson: Strong-side platoon bat who shows improvement (.318/.400/.682) with a career-low 24% K%.
Colt Keith: Starting and hitting in the middle of Detroit’s lineup. While he has 4 HR, he’s hitting just .225/.344/.360.
Zach Dezenzo: Playing but not contributing in any category (.250/.329/.368, 1 HR, 1 SB). Injury replacement bench bat.
Evan Carter: Struggling at the plate (.182/.270/.273) and only starting against righties. At least he has 3 SB in 37 PA.
Brett Baty: Only starts against righties with 5 HR and a .230 AVG.
Giancarlo Stanton: Don’t waste a roster spot on the hope for a .210 AVG and 12 HR.
Tim Elko: I’m unsure if the 26-year-old is a major league-caliber hitter. In 15 PA, he’s batting .133/.133/.333.
Catchers
Carlos Narváez: Seven starts in the last 10 games with Connor Wong off the IL. Hitting a respectable .266/.328/.431 with 4 HR.
Drake Baldwin: Hitting .360/.407/.573 with 4 HR while starting half the time.
Dalton Rushing: In AAA, he hit .308/.424/.514 with 5 HR. Currently, the plan is for him to start twice a week. The lack of playing time makes him only viable in the deepest leagues.
Moisés Ballesteros: It’s tough to know how much he’ll start with two other catchers already on the team. In just 9 PA so far, it has been mixed results with 0 K and just 1 H.
Hitting Prospects
Marcelo Mayer: In AAA, the 22-year-old is hitting .268/.343/.477 with 8 HR and 1 SB in 169 PA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Arias 2B CLE | 40% | 43% | 3% |
| Evan Carter CF TEX | 36% | 46% | 10% |
| Colt Keith 2B DET | 34% | 41% | 7% |
| Marcelo Mayer SS BOS | 32% | 34% | 2% |
| Trevor Larnach DH MIN | 27% | 34% | 7% |
| Hye Seong Kim 2B LAD | 27% | 33% | 6% |
| Daulton Varsho CF TOR | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Giancarlo Stanton DH NYY | 25% | 27% | 2% |
| Dalton Rushing C LAD | 24% | 41% | 17% |
| Gavin Sheets DH SD | 24% | 32% | 8% |
| Jake Meyers CF HOU | 22% | 25% | 3% |
| Brooks Lee 3B MIN | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| Daniel Schneemann 2B CLE | 20% | 27% | 7% |
| Drake Baldwin C ATL | 15% | 23% | 8% |
| Harrison Bader LF MIN | 13% | 17% | 4% |
| Moises Ballesteros DH CHC | 12% | 27% | 15% |
| Trey Sweeney SS DET | 12% | 20% | 8% |
| Zach Dezenzo RF HOU | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Luis Urias 2B ATH | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Miguel Andujar LF ATH | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Brett Baty 2B NYM | 7% | 22% | 15% |
| Tim Elko 1B CHW | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Addison Barger 3B TOR | 2% | 9% | 7% |
| Carlos Narvaez C BOS | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Will Benson RF CIN | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Starting Pitchers
Ryan Weathers: Solid in his debut (5 IP, 5 K, 1 ER) with his average fastball velocity up almost 2 mph from last season. The issue is that he can’t maintain the velocity and eventually ends up on the IL.
Logan Henderson: He’s been lights out in his first two major starts with a 2.45 ERA (2.32 xFIP), 0.82 WHIP (1.6 BB/9) and 13.1 K/9. While he deserved to be rostered, he has a few flaws. He’s a two-pitch pitcher with a changeup being his best pitch, so he might have problems navigating a lineup a second or third time. Also, he allows a ton of flyballs (33% GB% in AAA, 29% GB% in the majors), so home runs might be an issue. He only has an 11% SwStr%, which normally equates to a 22% K%, not a 40% K%.
Zebby Matthews: Expected to start Sunday. So far this season in AAA, the 25-year-old has a 1.93 ERA (3.49 xFIP), 1.19 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9.
Slade Cecconi: A mixed bag in his MLB debut on Saturday (5 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR, 8 K, and 0 BB). His average fastball velocity was up about 1 mph compared to last season. He threw the kitchen sink, six different pitches between 17 and 8 times.
Will Warren: While his walks are an issue (3.7 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP), he is underperforming his 3.19 xFIP with a 4.61 ERA. In three May starts, he has a 3.18 ERA (2.28 xFIP) and just a 2.7 BB/9 (1.18 WHIP).
Nick Martinez: Repeating last season with a 3.66 ERA (3.99 xFIP), 1.16 WHIP (1.9 BB/9), and 7.0 K/9.
Ben Brown: All is fine except his lack of pitch types means he struggles each additional time through a lineup.
TTO: ERA
1st: 3.94
2nd: 4.41
3rd: 6.75
Hunter Dobbins: Solid start to the season with a 3.90 ERA (3.56 xFIP), 1.30 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9. Not great, but streamable.
Stephen Kolek: Solid as a starter with a 2.33 ERA (3.45 xFIP), 1.14 WHIP, and 7.0 K/9. Lacks swing-and-miss in his game, with no pitch having greater than 11% SwStr%.
Michael Soroka: Since coming off the IL, he has a 6.00 ERA (3.06 xFIP), 1.33 WHIP (.381 BABIP), 12.0 K/9. His fastball velocity is up 1.4 mph. If he can stay healthy, a decent dart.
Mick Abel: Starting on Sunday. In AAA this season, the 23-year-old righty has a 2.53 ERA (3.91 xFIP), 1.21 WHIP (3.7 BB/9), and 9.9 K/9. Ranking only based on unknown upside.
Ryan Gusto: The 26-year-old has a 4.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, making him a drag on any roster. His ERA estimators point to him being more of a low-4.00 ERA talent. While not game-changing, his walks (3.3 BB/9) and home runs (1.2 HR/9, 36% GB%) inflate his ERA.
Noah Cameron: His 0.71 ERA and 0.63 WHIP are low because of a .059 BABIP, not from the strikeouts (4.3 K/9) and walks (3.6 K/9). He’s thrown his 91-mph fastball 55 times, and it hasn’t generated one swing-and-miss.
Michael Lorenzen: A solid 4.00 ERA talent who is a bench streaming option.
Chad Patrick: He’s been able to keep the ball in the yard (26% GB%, 0.7 HR/9) and suppress his ERA (3.35 ERA, 4.63 xFIP). Streamable starter for now.
Clayton Kershaw: In 21 minor league innings, he has just 16 K (6.2 K/9) with his average fastball velocity down at 87 mph. I’ll go with THE BAT projection of an 11.5 K%-BB%, which is similar to JP Sears (11.6%), Keider Montero (11.6%), Lance McCullers Jr. (11.6%), and Jameson Taillon (11.4%). If those four arms are rostered in a league, so should Kershaw.
Zack Littell: Littell has a 5.3 K/9 (4th lowest among 80 qualified starters) with a 92 mph fastball. Every indicator points to a 4.50 ERA talent.
Landon Knack: He’ll get one start next week but may not stay up with Kershaw coming off the IL. He’s been a ratio disaster with a 5.89 ERA (3.74 xFIP) and 1.53 WHIP (3.9 BB/9). While I expect some downward ERA regression, his WHIP will stay high if the walks continue.
Jonathan Cannon: Decent results so far (3.60 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, 7.0 K/9). The ERA-estimators point to some upward regression.
Bailey Falter: A .252 BABIP suppresses his 4.02 ERA (4.78 xFIP) and 1.21 WHIP (3.5 BB/9). A career 4.50 ERA pitcher with no changes this year to his talent level.
Dean Kremer: Managers must be adding the 4.50 ERA talent for his two-start week (at MIL, at BOS), not his talent (5.36 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP).
Patrick Corbin: Corbin is on a lucky streak since every part of his game is worse this year (FBv, K-BB%, etc) except a 3.35 ERA (87% LOB%). All his ERA estimators point to a 4.50 ERA talent.
Chris Paddack: It took about a month for him to right the ship after a horrible start to the season. The deal is that the better performance doesn’t mean it has been good. His 8.3% K%-BB% is the 9th lowest among 80 qualified starting pitchers.
Colton Gordon: Spot start against the Royals (4 IP, 3 K, 2 BB, and 3 ER). The STUPH metrics think he’s a below-average arm, probably based on his 91.5 mph fastball. I’ll need to see more before buying.
Logan Allen로건: His 3.70 ERA (5.06 xFIP) might be palatable if not for his 1.52 WHIP (4.4 BB/9). The high WHIP does as much ratio damage as a 5.63 ERA. Besides walking everyone, he’s lost over 1 mph on his fastball.
Aaron Civale: Expected to join the rotation. There is nothing to go on to determine his talent. He got lit up in 3 IP before going on the IL. In 9 IP in AAA, he’s only struck out five batters. His AAA average fastball velocity is in line with previous values.
Bryce Elder: Optioned to AAA (4.50 ERA).
Pitching Prospects
Jonah Tong: In AA, the 21-year-old righty has a 2.57 ERA (1.89 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 16.4 K/9 in 28 IP.
Jacob Misiorowski: In AAA, the 23-year-old righty has a 1.46 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 0.89 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 in 49 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw SP LAD | 38% | 57% | 19% |
| Nick Martinez SP CIN | 37% | 41% | 4% |
| Michael Lorenzen SP KC | 34% | 39% | 5% |
| Ryan Weathers SP MIA | 33% | 46% | 13% |
| Zebby Matthews SP MIN | 33% | 42% | 9% |
| Ben Brown SP CHC | 32% | 47% | 15% |
| Dean Kremer SP BAL | 31% | 36% | 5% |
| Will Warren SP NYY | 23% | 43% | 20% |
| Logan Henderson SP MIL | 21% | 40% | 19% |
| Zack Littell SP TB | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Ryan Gusto SP HOU | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Mike Soroka SP WAS | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| Jacob Misiorowski SP MIL | 19% | 27% | 8% |
| Aaron Civale SP MIL | 16% | 17% | 1% |
| Chad Patrick SP MIL | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Patrick Corbin SP TEX | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| Bryce Elder SP ATL | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Logan Allen SP CLE | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Chris Paddack SP MIN | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| Hunter Dobbins SP BOS | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| Noah Cameron SP KC | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Jonathan Cannon SP CHW | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Mick Abel SP PHI | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Stephen Kolek SP SD | 6% | 36% | 30% |
| Bailey Falter SP PIT | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Landon Knack SP LAD | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Jonah Tong SP NYM | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Shawn Armstrong RP TEX | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Slade Cecconi SP CLE | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Colton Gordon SP HOU | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Relievers: Save-based ranks
Jesus Tinoco: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Jordan Romano: Decent reliever who shares the closer’s role.
Dennis Santana: Below-average reliever who shares the closer’s role.
Will Vest: Good reliever who is part of a closer-by-committee.
Shawn Armstrong: Average reliever who is temporarily the closer.
Pierce Johnson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Lucas Erceg: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Griffin Jax: Good reliever who is a step or two from closing.
Kyle Leahy: Average reliever who is a step or two from closing.
Drew Pomeranz: Average reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
Huascar Brazobán: Average reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vest RP DET | 36% | 45% | 9% |
| Lucas Erceg RP KC | 33% | 34% | 1% |
| Jordan Romano RP PHI | 23% | 37% | 14% |
| Dennis Santana RP PIT | 23% | 26% | 3% |
| Griffin Jax RP MIN | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Jesus Tinoco RP MIA | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Kyle Leahy RP STL | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Huascar Brazoban RP NYM | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Pierce Johnson RP ATL | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Shawn Armstrong RP TEX | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Drew Pomeranz RP CHC | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Varsho only being rested because he’s coming back from injury. Will play almost every day when fully healthy and elite D means he stays in no matter what.
Agreed. He is a terrific outfielder with good power albeit a poor batting average. He should be a regular.