FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 7)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Kyle Stowers: Got his strikeouts under control (35% K% to 30% K%) and contributing across the board (.295/.371/.492, 6 HR, 2 SB).
Jake Meyers: Locked in as the centerfielder with 2 HR, 7 SB, and a .298 AVG.
Javier Báez: His power increased from a .111 ISO in April to .308 in May. His bat speed jumped from 71.7 mph to 73.5 mph. From my work in this year’s edition of The Process, he would expect a production increase (~30 point jump in OPS) but not as much as he saw. It’s possible he underperformed in April and is overperforming in May.
Hyeseong Kim 김혜성: Since being called up from the minors (.252/.328/.470, 5 HR, 13 SB in AAA), he’s started in four of five games but did sit against a lefty. He might be a platoon bat, but continues to steal (2 SB in 16 PA). Possibly ranked too high with the unknown playing time.
Dane Myers: A .421 BABIP has inflated his stats (.338/.376/.488, 3 HR, 6 SB), but at least he’s the regular centerfielder.
Gabriel Arias: Solid contributor (.280/.336/.441, 4 HR, 2 SB) while qualified at three positions.
J.P. Crawford: Leading off while hitting a solid .285/.401/.382 with 3 HR and 2 SB.
Luis Urías: Locked into the Athletics’ second base job while hitting .257/.345/.459 with 5 HR. Just think if he improves on his .233 BABIP.
Trey Sweeney: The locked-in shortstop is hitting .262/.338/.377 with 3 HR and 2 SB.
Carlos Santana: Continues to do Carlos Santana things by hitting .229/.322/.344 with 4 HR and 2 SB.
Eli White: Continues to start every game while batting .301/.346/.548 (.385 BABIP) with 2 HR and 3 SB.
Ryan O’Hearn: All his value (.306 AVG, 7 HR) is based on how many righties are on the schedule (five next week) since he doesn’t start against lefties.
Daniel Schneemann: Hitting a solid .284/.361/.554 with 5 HR. Eight starts in 10 games and hit second in three of the last four.
Miguel Andujar: Started four straight games at third base (6 total) while hitting .307/.339/.406 with 2 HR and 1 SB so far.
Colt Keith: Doesn’t have a set position and moves around from first to second to DH. While not hitting for batting average (.229/.357/.375), he has been a source of power (4 HR, .146 ISO) and walks (17% BB%).
Ty France: The hope is for more power (3 HR, .121 ISO) but a steady volume play since he starts all the time.
Harrison Bader: With Willi Castro off the IL, Bader (.289 AVG, 4 HR, 4 SB) got pushed to a part-time player.
Evan Carter: Strong-side platoon bat with just 14 PA so far. He hit .221/.333/.416 with 3 HR and 6 SB in AAA. High variation outcome option.
Luisangel Acuña: Acuna (.712 OPS) is splitting time with Jeff McNeil (.786 OPS) at second base. The Acuna needs to be a roster regular, and that might start drying up with McNeil hitting better than Acuna.
Max Kepler: Strong-side platoon bat (5 HR, .240 AVG) with just four righties on the schedule. Bench bat next week.
Santiago Espinal: Ten straight starts while batting .316/.374/.367 with 0 HR and 1 SB. Playing third base right now and is/could qualify sone at outfield with eight games.
Zach Dezenzo: I think he’s getting a little too much love. He has started just seven times in the last 10 games. He only has 1 HR and 1 SB. A .389 BABIP is inflating his .273 AVG.
Miguel Vargas: Was on a hot streak but has cooled down by hitting .215/.312/.319 so far in May. He’s already qualified at third and outfield and may have first base (5 games) in some leagues.
Coby Mayo: Mayo was in the majors because Ramón Urías went on the IL. If a player is below Urías on the depth chart, there is no reason to roster that “talent” no matter the “pedigree”.
Romy Gonzalez: Back is hurt, so he is headed to the IL, just as he was given a part of the Red Sox’s first base job.
Giancarlo Stanton: May return at some point to join an already crowded DH position.
Hitting Prospects
Tim Elko: In AAA, the 26-year-old is hitting .348/.431/.670 with 10 HR and 0 SB in 130 PA.
Jac Caglianone: In AA, the 22-year-old is hitting .325/.400/.600 with 9 HR and 1 SB in 140 PA.
Moisés Ballesteros: In AAA, the 21-year-old is hitting .362/.418/.528 with 4 HR and 2 SB.
Otto Kemp: In AAA, the 25-year-old is hitting .331/.429/.655 with 10 HR and 5 SB in 168 PA.
George Lombard Jr.: Across two minor league levels, the 19-year-old is hitting .309/.469/.443 with 1 HR and 12 SB.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone 1B KC | 38% | 41% | 3% |
| Coby Mayo 3B BAL | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Gabriel Arias 2B CLE | 36% | 40% | 4% |
| Kyle Stowers RF MIA | 35% | 75% | 40% |
| Ryan O’Hearn DH BAL | 35% | 50% | 15% |
| Luisangel Acuna 2B NYM | 30% | 36% | 6% |
| Evan Carter CF TEX | 27% | 36% | 9% |
| J.P. Crawford SS SEA | 25% | 37% | 12% |
| Colt Keith 2B DET | 25% | 32% | 7% |
| Ty France 1B MIN | 24% | 30% | 6% |
| Giancarlo Stanton DH NYY | 23% | 25% | 2% |
| Javier Baez CF DET | 19% | 54% | 35% |
| Max Kepler LF PHI | 19% | 29% | 10% |
| Carlos Santana 1B CLE | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Hye Seong Kim 2B LAD | 14% | 26% | 12% |
| Harrison Bader LF MIN | 11% | 13% | 2% |
| Jake Meyers CF HOU | 10% | 22% | 12% |
| Miguel Vargas 3B CHW | 10% | 14% | 4% |
| Moises Ballesteros C CHC | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Miguel Andujar LF ATH | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| George Lombard SS NYY | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Dane Myers CF MIA | 6% | 19% | 13% |
| Trey Sweeney SS DET | 6% | 12% | 6% |
| Eli White RF ATL | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Zach Dezenzo RF HOU | 5% | 12% | 7% |
| Luis Urias 2B ATH | 5% | 10% | 5% |
| Romy Gonzalez 1B BOS | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Tim Elko 1B CHW | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Otto Kemp 3B PHI | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Daniel Schneemann 2B CLE | 1% | 19% | 18% |
| Santiago Espinal 3B CIN | 1% | 5% | 4% |
Starting Pitchers
Gunnar Hoglund: He shoved against the Mariners and Marlins in his first two starts. He finished with a 2.38 ERA (2.98 xFIP), 7.9 K/9, and 1.06 WHIP (0.8 BB/9). He’s a solid arm with a 94-mph fastball (10% SwStr%) and two secondaries (change and slider) with swinging-strike rates over 12%.
Cade Horton: A nice Saturday debut for our 54th-ranked prospect with 4 IP, 5 K, 0 BB, and 3 ER in 77 pitches. Mainly, he used two pitches, a 95-mph fastball and a sweeper (18% SwStr%).
Colin Rea: Struggled in this week’s start (4 ER in 5 IP) against the Giants. The number one reason for Rea being added is two possible starts next week against the Marlins and White Sox. Rea has been solid this season with a 2.43 ERA (3.98 xFIP), 1.21 WHIP (2.1 BB/9), and 7.6 K/9. Boring but available.
Ben Brown: He can strike out batters (10.9 K/9), but the rest of his game is a sh … mess. He walks too many batters (4.0 BB/9), leading to a 1.65 WHIP. Some hope exists with his 1.8 BB/9 over his last three starts. Additionally, he throws just two pitches, and his ERA jumps each time through the lineup (3.95 ERA to 4.50 ERA to 7.50 ERA) as batters get familiar with them.
AJ Smith-Shawver: Added because of a great two-step this week (vs CIN, at PIT) and has been a solid 4.00 ERA talent this year. Like most of the pitchers featured today, he has an elevated walk rate (4.3 BB/9) leading to a 1.37 WHIP (equivalent of a 4.75 ERA). Worth evaluating on a week-to-week basis to be rostered and started.
Chad Patrick: Making a few pitch mix changes from the first three starts to the last five.
Pitch: 1st 3 usage, last 5 usage
Four-seamer: 37%, 13%
Sinker: 12%, 26%
Slider: 0%, 7%
In the first three starts, he had a 7% K%-BB%. Since then, a 16% K%-BB%.
Luis L. Ortiz: A mixed bag with a 5.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, but his ERA estimators are near 4.00, so normally some regression is coming. Ortiz’s problem is his 4.6 BB/9 (5.1 BB/9 in May). In a roto league, the 1.42 WHIP does as much damage as a 5.05 ERA. Unrosterable until he gets the walks under control.
Zack Littell: His strikeouts are down from ~8.0 K/9 to 5.7 K/9, pushing his talent from 4.00 ERA to 4.50 ERA. All four of his pitches are missing fewer bats as he deals with a small velocity loss (-0.5 mph). He continues to walk almost no one (1.7 BB/9)
Ben Casparius: It’s tough to know if he’s still in the rotation. He continues to keep the walks under control (1.8 BB/9), which has caused him to struggle in the past. He might be worth adding as a weekly injury replacement. Will be solid out of the bullpen or spot starting.
Stephen Kolek: As I write this, a 28-year-old is blanking the Rockies over 5 IP in Colorado. His calling card is the career 58% GB%. He walks too many guys and doesn’t strike out enough. He’s a tough one to evaluate. He might be too high, but the pitchers ranked below have a more established track record of sucking.
Simeon Woods Richardson: He’s been a bit lucky with a streamer profile with a 4.01 ERA (4.77 xFIP), 1.43 WHIP (3.2 BB/9), and 8.3 K/9.
Michael Soroka: Since 2020, he has a 5.39 ERA (4.47 xFIP), 1.40 WHIP (4.4 BB/9), and 9.2 K/9 in 122 IP. I’d take my chances on other starters.
Ben Lively 라이블리: The 3.46 ERA is nice and shiny, but all of his ERA estimators are almost 5.00. Of the 82 qualified starters, his 9% K%-BB% ranks 66th. Just a streamer against the weakest of teams.
Bryce Elder: Probably a 4.50 ERA talent who can be streamed against weaker opponents. Managers are going that route with a start against the Pirates this week and the Nationals next week.
Lance McCullers Jr.: Ignore the 0.00 ERA and dig into the underlying stats. His fastball velocity (91.8 mph) is over 1 mph down from his career low. Additionally, he had issues throwing strikes with a 41% Ball% (equiv of a 5.7 BB/9). He’s not even missing bats with a 6% SwStr%. Hold if possible, but don’t start.
Sean Burke: No idea who a guy with a 4.35 ERA (5.41 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP (3.9 BB/9), and 6.2 K/9 is being added. Ignore.
Miles Mikolas: I guess it is the one week to roster Mikolas with games against the Pirates and Nationals. He’s been a disaster for three straight seasons. At this point in his career, he’s a solid 5.00 ERA talent.
Rehabbing Starters
Ryan Weathers: Expected to start next week after three rehab starts totaling 10 IP. His fastball velocity is up over 1.5 mph compared to last season. Stash and bench.
Clayton Kershaw: The vet is likely to come off the IL next week. Don’t immediately start him with his fastball down over 2.5 mph compared to last season.
Pitching Prospects
Joe Boyle: In AAA, the 25-year-old righty has a 1.69 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 in 32 IP.
Hunter Barco: Across two minor league levels, the 24-year-old lefty has a 0.30 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz SP CLE | 38% | 40% | 2% |
| Lance McCullers SP HOU | 32% | 37% | 5% |
| Ryan Weathers SP MIA | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Clayton Kershaw SP LAD | 27% | 37% | 10% |
| Ben Brown SP CHC | 27% | 31% | 4% |
| A.J. Smith-Shawver SP ATL | 26% | 57% | 31% |
| Colin Rea SP CHC | 23% | 46% | 23% |
| Gunnar Hoglund SP ATH | 19% | 44% | 25% |
| Cade Horton SP CHC | 18% | 42% | 24% |
| Zack Littell SP TB | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Sean Burke SP CHW | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Ben Casparius RP LAD | 16% | 29% | 13% |
| Mike Soroka SP WAS | 14% | 19% | 5% |
| Ben Lively SP CLE | 14% | 17% | 3% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP MIN | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Chad Patrick SP MIL | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Miles Mikolas SP STL | 7% | 15% | 8% |
| Joe Boyle SP TB | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Bryce Elder SP ATL | 5% | 12% | 7% |
| Hunter Barco SP PIT | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Stephen Kolek SP SD | 1% | 5% | 4% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Porter Hodge: Good reliever who is sharing closer duties.
Shelby Miller: Good reliever who seems to be sharing the closer duties.
Kevin Ginkel: Good reliever who seems to be sharing the closer duties.
Zach Agnos: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Jason Adam: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Lucas Erceg: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Fernando Cruz: Good reliever who is a few steps away from being the closer.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Adam RP SD | 36% | 38% | 2% |
| Lucas Erceg RP KC | 32% | 33% | 1% |
| Porter Hodge RP CHC | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Shelby Miller RP ARI | 19% | 28% | 9% |
| Fernando Cruz RP NYY | 12% | 17% | 5% |
| Kevin Ginkel RP ARI | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Zach Agnos RP COL | 4% | 7% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
“He might be too high, but the pitchers ranked below have a more established track record of sucking.” lol