FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 6)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Besides the first five batters and the last three, the order may not matter. The key will be getting players who help your team via a certain position (e.g. shortstop) or stats (stolen bases).
Andy Pages: Solid season so far with 6 HR, 3 SB, and a .283 AVG. Starts every game in centerfield.
Trent Grisham: Hitting (.276/.353/.605, 8 HR) but not playing daily. The outfield/DH situation is tight with five guys (Grisham, Judge, Rice, Bellinger, and Domínguez) for four spots.
Jordan Beck: Solid fantasy season (.266 AVG, 5 HR, 4 SB) with a week at home coming up.
Daulton Varsho: Hit cleanup last night and played centerfield for the third time since coming off the IL (2 HR, 1 SB). His bat speed is up to 76.4 mph from 73.7 mph. The problem is that he’s swinging-and-missing more (11.4% SwStr% to 21.3 SwStr%).
Kyle Stowers: Dropped his strikeout rate from 35% to 28% while still making hard contact. The .424 BABIP won’t last, but an .891 OPS with 4 HR and 2 SB will work.
Javier Báez: Started in eight of the last 10 games in centerfield. Over that stretch, he’s batting .353/.389/.706 with 3 HR (last three games). The key has been his average exit velocity going from 86 mph to 89 mph.
Romy Gonzalez: Triston Casas (knee) could be out for a while, so Gonzalez should be sharing duties at first base. Gonzalez has been a solid bat over his career (.246/.277/.390, 11 HR, 20 SB), similar to Willi Castro or Leody Taveras. He might end up in a platoon with a career 119 wRC+ versus lefties and 48 wRC+ against righties
Eric Wagaman: OK bat (.267/.315/.416, 3 HR) while qualified at first and third base and possibly outfield (6 games).
Luis Urías: Hitting .255/.348/.473 with 4 HR from a career-low 12% K%. Started 11 straight games at second base. His playing time might dry up with Zack Gelof on a rehab assignment.
Eli White: Seven straight starts while batting .292/.346/.563 with 2 HR and 2 SB.
Brooks Baldwin: Nine starts over the past 10 games. He just got shortstop eligibility this week and about outfield (9 games). Batting .242/.271/.396 with 3 HR and 2 SB.
Ty France: Hit 3 HR with a .271 AVG. That’s who he is.
Trevor Larnach: Producing as expected with 4 HR and a .228 AVG.
Brooks Lee: Playing third base while hitting .259/.333/.407 with 2 HR.
Ryan O’Hearn: He’s been solid so far (.303/.384/.579, 6 HR, 1 SB) but sits against lefties.
Luisangel Acuña: Hitting great (.288/.342/.356, 7 SB) but with Jeff McNeil off the IL, Acuña sits every third day.
Jeff McNeil: In a time share with Luisangel Acuña and Tyrone Taylor. Back to his old self with an 8% K% in 25 PA.
J.P. Crawford: Nothing special with a .292 AVG, 2 HR, 1 SB.
Gavin Lux: Playing and hitting for batting average but not much else (.317/.410/.426, 1 HR, 1 SB).
Alex Verdugo: Leading off and batting .313/.365/.417 with 0 HR and 0 SB.
Jon Berti: Seven starts in the last 10 games while batting ninth over that stretch. No power (0 HR, 1 RBI) but with 7 SB and .306 AVG.
Miguel Vargas: Batting .342/.426/.537 over the past two weeks with 2 HR.
Zach Dezenzo: Seven starts over the last 10 days, most in the outfield. During that time, he hit .320/.346/.400 with 0 HR and 0 SB.
Ben Williamson: Playing every game but not much else (.692 OPS, 1 HR).
Andrew McCutchen: He’s been fine (.264/.356/.429, 3 HR, 1 SB) with six outfield games so far.
Tim Tawa: Hitting fine (.186/.300/.475, 5 HR, 2 SB) but could see his playing time fall off with Ketel Marte off the IL.
Catchers
Edgar Quero: A nice batting average (.326/.442/.395) from the catcher position.
Hitting Prospects
Jordan Lawlar: In AAA, the 22-year-old is hitting .385/.471/.692 with 6 HR and 12 SB in 137 PA.
Moisés Ballesteros: In AAA, the 21-year-old is hitting .390/.444/.590 with 4 HR and 3 SB in 117 PA
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Lux LF CIN | 39% | 56% | 17% |
| Jordan Lawlar SS ARI | 39% | 43% | 4% |
| Trent Grisham CF NYY | 38% | 44% | 6% |
| Ryan O’Hearn DH BAL | 28% | 32% | 4% |
| Luisangel Acuna 2B NYM | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Daulton Varsho CF TOR | 23% | 26% | 3% |
| Jordan Beck LF COL | 21% | 44% | 23% |
| Kyle Stowers RF MIA | 20% | 33% | 13% |
| Trevor Larnach DH MIN | 20% | 28% | 8% |
| Jeff McNeil 2B NYM | 20% | 26% | 6% |
| Brooks Lee 3B MIN | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| Ty France 1B MIN | 17% | 23% | 6% |
| J.P. Crawford SS SEA | 15% | 24% | 9% |
| Edgar Quero C CHW | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Eric Wagaman 3B MIA | 14% | 17% | 3% |
| Andy Pages CF LAD | 12% | 58% | 46% |
| Tim Tawa 2B ARI | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| Alex Verdugo LF ATL | 8% | 13% | 5% |
| Moises Ballesteros C CHC | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Brooks Baldwin LF CHW | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Miguel Vargas 3B CHW | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Ben Williamson 3B SEA | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Andrew McCutchen DH PIT | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Jon Berti 3B CHC | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Zach Dezenzo RF HOU | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Javier Baez CF DET | 3% | 14% | 11% |
| Romy Gonzalez | UNK | 2% | UNK |
| Luis Urias 2B ATH | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Eli White RF ATL | 0% | 5% | 5% |
Starting Pitchers
Lucas Giolito: Solid (3 ER, 7 K, and 2 BB in 6 IP) in his first major league start in over a year. His average fastball velocity compares to his 2021 to 2023 value (93.3 mph vs 93.2 mph). The STUPH metrics weren’t a fan of his Stuff (below average) but loved his command (great) with his overall talent in the middle. He needs to be added in all leagues with the hope that his 2019 to 2021 talent reemerges (3.47 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 1.08 WHIP).
Tony Gonsolin: A career 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP will make Gonsolin a must-roster in all leagues to see if he gets close to that production. A red flag from the first start was his 92.6 mph fastball. In 2023, it sat there, and Gonsolin posted a 4.98 ERA (5.25 xFIP).
Gunnar Hoglund: Solid in AAA (2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9) and his first start (7 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER in 6 IP). Both of his fastballs posted a swinging-strike rate over 10%. He’s on the list of must-adds.
Ryan Gusto: Must-roster at this point. Since being a starter, he has a 3.79 ERA (3.46 xFIP), 9.5 K/9, and 1.26 WHIP. The only issue will be if he stays in the rotation when McCullers comes off the IL.
Hunter Dobbins: Great in two MLB starts (9 K/9, 1.18 WHIP, 2.45 ERA, 3.43 xFIP) and is now back in the Red Sox rotation. While his 95-mph fastball is not good, his slider (20% SwStr) and curve (30 SwStr%) generate a ton of swing-and-miss.
Ben Casparius: The Dodgers stated that Casparius will prep for a move to the rotation after being lights out in the bullpen (2.91 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.6 K/9). The 26-year-old struggled with his command in the minors. His last three seasons combined walks rates were 4.6 BB/9, 6.6 BB/9, and 4.7 BB/9. And this year, his walks are down at 1.3 BB/9 with 33% Ball% equivalent to 2.3 BB/9. Ranked high to see if the walks stay down and the strikeouts don’t drop too much in the longer starts.
Colin Rea: The 1.46 ERA won’t last, and it should just regress to a high-3.00’s ERA once he starts allowing more home runs (0.4 HR/9). Otherwise, his production seems sustainable.
Tomoyuki Sugano: Dominated the Yankees earlier their week with 8 K and 0 ER in 5 IP. I might roster-and-bench to see if he can do it a couple more times.
Michael Lorenzen: Walks remain an issue (3.5 BB/9, 1.37 WHIP) for the 4.00 ERA talent. Streamer.
Jake Irvin: A 4.00 ERA talent who can be streamed against weak opponents.
Shane Smith: Limiting hard contact (0.3 HR/9, .247 BABIP) kept his 1.08 WHIP and 2.23 ERA in check. I have him projected for just over a 4.00 ERA.
AJ Smith-Shawver: He’s never been able to throw strikes with a 4.3 BB/9 this year, leading to a 1.68 WHIP. His 4.26 ERA should regress down to his 3.58 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA.
Logan Evans: A mixed bag in his first start with 3 K, 3 BB, and 2 ER over 5.0 IP. In my most recent Mining the News, I examined his pitches (horrible fastballs). Add to see how he does over his next couple of starts.
Simeon Woods Richardson: He’s getting hit around (1.6 HR/9, .329 BABIP). His 9.3 K/9 is keeping his ERA and estimators in check. Streamer against weak opponents.
Chris Paddack: Better since the week 1 blowup (3.00 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 7.5 K/9, and 1.29 WHIP). Not a must-add, just a streamer.
Luis L. Ortiz: A few too many walks (4.5 BB/9, 1.41). That WHIP does as much damage to a team’s ratios as a 5.00 ERA.
Tyler Anderson: The .169 BABIP and 91% LOB% won’t last, so his 2.67 ERA will regress towards his 5.00 ERA estimators.
Will Warren: While his 5.63 ERA (3.75 xFIP) should regress downward, his 1.42 WHIP (4.5 BB/9) is nearly unrosterable.
Steven Matz: Matz made a couple of decent starts (1.00 ERA, 1.72 xFIP, 11.0 K/9, and 0.78 WHIP over 9 IP). With Erick Fedde 페디 off the IL, Matz is moving back to the bullpen.
Noah Cameron: Solid debut with 3 K, 5 BB, and 0 ERA in 6 IP. The STUPH models were not fans with his overall talent below average, and the only pitches they liked were the cutter and slider. Demoted to the minors.
Emerson Hancock: He is getting crushed (.404 BABIP, 1.5 HR/9, 6.62 ERA). The solution to his struggles is simple, quit throwing his horrible sinker (44% usage, 2% SwStr%, 41% GB%, 1.063 vsOPS). It’s not surprising that his best start (2 ER and 7 K) came Boston when he threw his stinker 34% of the time.
Patrick Corbin: Since 2020, Corbin has a 5.62 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 744 IP. Why would he turn around his career? Ignore.
Bryce Elder: He’s horrible, and there are no signs he’ll be good. It’s never a good sign when your K/9 and ERA are both 5.33.
Rehabbing Starters
Lance McCullers Jr.: Decent so far in his rehab (2.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9) with walks being an issue (4.3 BB/9). He’s lost 1 mph since the last time he threw in the majors.
Clayton Kershaw: Solid in this rehab with a 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9 in 11 IP. His fastball velocity is down over 2 mph since the last time he threw in the majors.
Eury Pérez: In A-ball, the 22-year-old has thrown 2 IP in his Tommy John surgery recovery.
Ryan Weathers: Just 5 IP in the minors with 10 K, 4 BB, and 2 ER.
Starting Pitcher Prospects
Blade Tidwell: The 23-year-old righty has a 5.00 ERA (3.83 xFIP), 1.33 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9 in 27 IP. He’s starting for the Mets on Sunday.
Jacob Misiorowski: The 23-year-old righty has a 1.82 ERA (3.35 xFIP), 0.91 WHIP, and 11.5 K9 in 29 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin SP WAS | 40% | 55% | 15% |
| Eury Perez SP MIA | 39% | 48% | 9% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano SP BAL | 38% | 44% | 6% |
| Tyler Anderson SP LAA | 36% | 41% | 5% |
| Lucas Giolito SP BOS | 35% | 56% | 21% |
| Luis Ortiz SP CLE | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Shane Smith SP CHW | 30% | 41% | 11% |
| Michael Lorenzen SP KC | 29% | 36% | 7% |
| Will Warren SP NYY | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| Tony Gonsolin SP LAD | 25% | 66% | 41% |
| Clayton Kershaw SP LAD | 24% | 27% | 3% |
| Ryan Weathers SP MIA | 23% | 29% | 6% |
| A.J. Smith-Shawver SP ATL | 20% | 26% | 6% |
| Lance McCullers SP HOU | 17% | 30% | 13% |
| Jacob Misiorowski SP MIL | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Ryan Gusto SP HOU | 14% | 28% | 14% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP MIN | 12% | 13% | 1% |
| Chris Paddack SP MIN | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Colin Rea SP CHC | 8% | 22% | 14% |
| Patrick Corbin SP TEX | 7% | 14% | 7% |
| Steven Matz RP STL | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Emerson Hancock SP SEA | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Noah Cameron SP KC | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Logan Evans SP SEA | 3% | 11% | 8% |
| Hunter Dobbins SP BOS | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Bryce Elder SP ATL | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Blade Tidwell SP NYM | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Ben Casparius RP LAD | 3% | 15% | 12% |
| Gunnar Hoglund SP ATH | 2% | 16% | 14% |
Relief Pitchers: Saves-based ranks
David Bednar: Might be decent again and is the closer.
Shelby Miller: Good reliever who might be the closer.
Will Vest: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Zach Agnos: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Kevin Ginkel: Average reliever who could be sharing the closer’s role.
Jesus Tinoco: Below-average reliever who might be in the closer’s mix.
Camilo Doval: Good reliever who is next in line for Saves behind a shaky closer.
Reed Garrett: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Fernando Cruz: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Kyle Leahy: OK reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Camilo Doval RP SF | 34% | 49% | 15% |
| David Bednar RP PIT | 34% | 43% | 9% |
| Will Vest RP DET | 12% | 35% | 23% |
| Fernando Cruz RP NYY | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Reed Garrett RP NYM | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Jesus Tinoco RP MIA | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Shelby Miller RP ARI | 4% | 17% | 13% |
| Kevin Ginkel RP ARI | 4% | 10% | 6% |
| Kyle Leahy RP STL | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Zach Agnos RP COL | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Thanks for the early post! Landon Roupp has 2 starts this week and I still am afraid to start him due to recent suckage, which means he is being considered for a drop (12 team roto). Which of your SPs would you rather have over Roupp?