FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 22)
Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Dylan Beavers: Started in all six games so far (.300/.481/.500, 1 HR). I’d like to see him steal a base or two.
Tyler Freeman: Leads off all the time with a .292 AVG, 2 HR, and 16 SB.
Miguel Andujar: Hitting for average (.315 AVG) and power (9 HR in 285 PA) while batting cleanup.
Ryan Mountcastle: Still playing even with the promotion of Beavers and Basallo and hitting .298/.346/.447 with 2 HR and 2 SB since coming off the IL.
Daulton Varsho: Starts every four to five games. A solid source of home runs (14 HR) and nothing else.
Jhostynxon Garcia: I’m not sure how much he’ll play, but in AAA, he made contact and hit for power (the two most transferable traits to the majors). Three strikeouts in his first game are not ideal. Ranked based on full-time plate appearances.
Lars Nootbaar: Nine straight starts with a .721 OPS. Accumulator.
Brooks Lee: Starting and can hit some home runs (13 HR).
Caleb Durbin: Eight starts in the last 10 games. Sort of an accumulator (7 HR, 11 SB, .245 AVG) but not much more.
Paul DeJong: Started in seven of the last 10 games. So far, he has 6 HR and 4 SB in 150 PA.
José Caballero: Stolen base expert (40 SB) who has cut his strikeout rate from 29% K% with the Rays to 11% K% with the Yankees. He provides nothing but those steals with just four starts over the last 10 games.
Brett Baty: Starts about two-thirds of the time with 15 HR in 336 PA.
Jonathan India: Starting and qualified at infield and outfield. Nothing more.
Carson Williams: Homered in his debut after hitting 23 HR with 22 SB in AAA. One item to watch his his batting average after having a 34% K% in AAA. As with anyone on the Rays, he’ll be limited in playing time, but the question is: How much?
Owen Caissie: Since being promoted, started five times in 11 games. Needs to start two-thirds of the time to be a fantasy contributor.
Kyle Karros: After being a regular (.762 OPS, 1 HR), he now splits time with … checks notes … checks notes again … Orlando Arcia. The Rockies deserve to be in last place … forever.
Colby Thomas: Might be on the short side of an outfield platoon. And …
Joey Ortiz: On the IL. Ignore until he returns.
Catchers
Kyle Teel: Starting every game. When he’s not catching, he’s the DH. Batting .276/.369/.408 with 4 HR and 2 SB in 177 PA.
Samuel Basallo: The 21-year-old should get a decent amount of playing time. Pitchers are attacking him with secondary pitches. So far, he has a >20 SwStr% on sliders and changeups.
Pedro Pagés: Normal catcher profile, some power (9 HR), while a complete sink in stolen bases and batting average.
Dillon Dingler: His strikeout rate remains low (23%), so the .271 AVG remains with 11 HR.
Kevin McGonigle: Across three minor league levels (A, A+, AA), the 21-year-old shortstop hit .325/.419/.601 with 14 HR and 7 SB.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho CF TOR | 39% | 46% | 7% |
| Jonathan India 2B KC | 39% | 40% | 1% |
| Lars Nootbaar LF STL | 37% | 38% | 1% |
| Samuel Basallo C BAL | 36% | 57% | 21% |
| Jose Caballero 3B NYY | 34% | 44% | 10% |
| Tyler Freeman RF COL | 34% | 36% | 2% |
| Caleb Durbin 3B MIL | 29% | 31% | 2% |
| Dillon Dingler C DET | 28% | 33% | 5% |
| Owen Caissie RF CHC | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Brooks Lee 3B MIN | 24% | 30% | 6% |
| Miguel Andujar DH CIN | 23% | 46% | 23% |
| Dylan Beavers OF BAL | 21% | 34% | 13% |
| Kyle Teel C CHW | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Carson Williams SS TB | 20% | 27% | 7% |
| Joseph Ortiz SS MIL | 20% | 23% | 3% |
| Ryan Mountcastle 1B BAL | 20% | 22% | 2% |
| Kevin McGonigle SS DET | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Brett Baty 3B NYM | 17% | 24% | 7% |
| Kyle Karros 3B COL | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Colby Thomas RF ATH | 7% | 13% | 6% |
| Jhostynxon Garcia CF BOS | 6% | 14% | 8% |
| Paul DeJong 3B WAS | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Pedro Pages C STL | 3% | 7% | 4% |
Starting Pitchers
Nolan McLean: So far, he’s dominating righties with a 39% K%-BB%, while lefties are at a 14% K%-BB%. He throws from the extreme third base side of the rubber, making hitting him impossible for righties but easy for lefties. In both his starts, teams were lefty-heavy with 28 of the 46 batters faced from the left side.
Also, his slider (29% usage) is not missing bats (6% SwStr), and hitters are teeing off on it (1.571 OPS). The slider’s release point is about 5 inches different than his fastball. MLB hitters can catch onto a pitch with nearly half a foot difference in release point. He has enough pitches that he can drop the slider.
All that info to say, as good as he’s been (1.46 ERA, 2.39 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, 11.0 K/9), I think there is room for upside.
Braxton Ashcraft: In his last three starts, he has a 1.35 ERA (2.22 xFIP), 10.1 K/9, 58% GB%, and 0.68 WHIP. He has no comps at this point and needs to be universally added to see if any bit of the improvement is real.
Parker Messick: He was great in his debut (6 K, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 H in 6 IP) and the STUPH models agree (2.77 botERA). It’s impossible to know if he’ll keep it up, but this week will be the last week to find out.
Cade Cavalli: Solid (2.82 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 7.3 K/9) so far. There seemed to be hope that his fastball would play up since it had gained 2 mph since the last time he was in the majors. Instead, the pitch has missed fewer bats (13% SwStr% to 9% SwStr%).
Ryan Bergert: Remains solid with the Royals (2.82 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9). Getting close to being a must-add in all formats.
Brad Lord: The 25-year-old is turning into a decent bench streamer, maybe a bit more (3.46 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 7.2 K/9, and 1.25 WHIP).
Troy Melton: I’m not sure how long the Tigers can keep rolling out Chris Paddack (5.91 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, 5.5 K/9, 2.5 HR/9) with Melton being lights out (2.70 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, 8.5 K/9).
Joey Wentz: While his overall results with Atlanta are fine (3.79 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.16 WHIP), the walks have returned and the strikeouts diminished (6.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 5.05 xFIP) over his last three starts. Streamer against bottom-half teams.
Michael McGreevy: He’s in a three-week stretch of easy opponents (vs COL, vs MIA) with two games this week (vs PIT, at CIN). The matchups remain decent the next two weeks (vs SF, at SEA). All signs point to him being a low-4.00 ERA talent, which is startable with his matchups.
Shane Smith: Another two-start add (vs KC, vs NYY). He’s been OK (4.12 ERA, 4.40 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 8.6 K/9) with a small second-half improvement (4.47 xFIP to 4.09 xFIP). A lot worse options.
Luis Morales: A shiny 1.72 ERA (4.38 xFIP) could increase several times over if he maintains his 4.6 BB/9. He’s hitting 7’s on the three luck trifecta (90% LOB%, .231 BABIP, 0.6 HR/9). If he doesn’t keep the low BABIP, his walks will push his WHIP into the unrosterable range.
Mick Abel: We’ll see if the Twins have made any changes to Abel after some struggling (5.04 ERA, 4.76 xFIP, 7.6 K/9, 1.36 WHIP) in 25 IP in Philly earlier in the season. Ranked higher than he should be based on unknown positive adjustments.
Yoendrys Gómez: Solid in two starts (3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) but was horrible as a reliever (6.62 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). The difference was his walks going from 6.6 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9.
Jason Alexander: In a nice four-game stretch (1.54 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 6.9 K/9, and 0.86 WHIP) with the only change being fewer walks (4.9 BB/9 before, 1.9 BB/9 after). Besides keeping the walks down, he’ll need to maintain his rotation spot with Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. about to come off the IL.
Johan Oviedo: In two starts (6 IP total), he’s shown the ability to miss bats (13.5 K/9) with both STUPH models seeing it take a major step up in STUFF, but LOCATION/COMMAND projects a worse pitcher because a 6.0 BB/9 won’t cut it.
Davis Martin: A below-average starter with OK matchups. I’m not sure what’s behind the demand.
Taijuan Walker: A 93% LOB% has him with a second-half 3.29 ERA (4.43 xFIP). Besides the ERA, no metric points to him even being an adequate starter. Faces the Mets this week. Pass.
Tomoyuki Sugano: He’s being targeted for his two-start week (vs BOS, vs SF) instead of his talent (3.97 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.27 WHIP).
Rehabbing Starters
Kyle Bradish: Coming off the IL on Monday. Struggled a bit with control (3.9 BB/9) during his rehab.
Tylor Megill: On his rehab assignment with great results in 10 IP (0.00 ERA, 15.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9).
Luis Garcia: Within a week or two of returning from Tommy John surgery. The plans are for him to return to the rotation.
Pitching Prospects
Jonah Tong: Across two minor league levels (AA and AAA), the 22-year-old righty has a 1.50 ERA (2.07 xFIP), 0.92 WHIP, and 14.3 K/9 in 107 IP.
Robby Snelling: Across two minor league levels (AA and AAA), the 21-year-old lefty has a 2.73 ERA (2.73 xFIP), 1.13 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 in 112 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean SP NYM | 37% | 61% | 24% |
| Kyle Bradish SP BAL | 36% | 49% | 13% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano SP BAL | 36% | 44% | 8% |
| Tylor Megill SP NYM | 36% | 37% | 1% |
| Cade Cavalli SP WAS | 28% | 32% | 4% |
| Shane Smith SP CHW | 26% | 30% | 4% |
| Taijuan Walker SP PHI | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| Mick Abel SP MIN | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| Michael McGreevy SP STL | 18% | 25% | 7% |
| Joey Wentz RP ATL | 16% | 21% | 5% |
| Jonah Tong SP NYM | 16% | 20% | 4% |
| Ryan Bergert SP KC | 13% | 18% | 5% |
| Robby Snelling SP MIA | 13% | 17% | 4% |
| Luis Garcia SP HOU | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Troy Melton SP DET | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Jason Alexander SP HOU | 10% | 17% | 7% |
| Brad Lord RP WAS | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Davis Martin SP CHW | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Luis Morales RP ATH | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Parker Messick SP CLE | 4% | 15% | 11% |
| Shawn Armstrong RP TEX | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Braxton Ashcraft RP PIT | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Johan Oviedo SP PIT | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Yoendrys Gomez RP CHW | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Name | IP | BotERA | Pitching+ERA | SwStr% ERA | FBv ERA | SIERA | xFIP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Melton | 6.0 | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.44 | 3.81 | 1.81 | 2.30 | 2.68 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | 13.1 | 3.88 | 2.83 | 2.91 | 3.59 | 2.38 | 2.22 | 2.97 |
| Parker Messick | 6.2 | 2.77 | 2.60 | 4.28 | 4.14 | 3.23 | 2.45 | 3.24 |
| Nolan McLean | 12.1 | 3.81 | 4.49 | 4.45 | 3.87 | 2.50 | 2.39 | 3.58 |
| Ryan Bergert | 16.2 | 3.29 | 4.16 | 3.76 | 4.19 | 3.13 | 3.08 | 3.60 |
| Michael McGreevy | 12.0 | 3.92 | 3.89 | 4.34 | 4.20 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.92 |
| Luis Morales | 13.2 | 3.57 | 4.42 | 5.24 | 3.57 | 4.15 | 3.79 | 4.12 |
| Cade Cavalli | 18.0 | 4.47 | 4.13 | 4.36 | 3.55 | 4.49 | 4.22 | 4.20 |
| Johan Oviedo | 5.0 | 5.63 | 4.55 | 3.55 | 3.88 | 3.27 | 4.35 | 4.21 |
| Brad Lord | 17.1 | 4.12 | 4.76 | 4.89 | 3.94 | 3.92 | 3.82 | 4.24 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | 10.0 | 4.99 | 5.01 | 3.58 | 4.08 | 3.80 | 4.74 | 4.37 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 10.1 | 3.93 | 3.61 | 4.75 | 4.07 | 4.98 | 4.94 | 4.38 |
| Shane Smith | 11.0 | 5.20 | 4.98 | 3.73 | 3.78 | 4.55 | 4.09 | 4.39 |
| Jason Alexander | 17.1 | 4.33 | 3.95 | 5.15 | 4.43 | 4.49 | 4.44 | 4.46 |
| Joey Wentz | 14.2 | 3.53 | 4.53 | 4.71 | 4.23 | 5.35 | 5.05 | 4.57 |
| Taijuan Walker | 17.2 | 5.22 | 4.47 | 4.97 | 4.41 | 4.57 | 4.21 | 4.64 |
| Davis Martin | 11.0 | 4.46 | 5.06 | 4.83 | 4.02 | 6.15 | 6.01 | 5.09 |
Relief Pitchers: Saves-based ranks
Shawn Armstrong: Good reliever who is the closer.
Dennis Santana: Average reliever who is the closer
Justin Topa: Average reliever who is the closer.
Jose Ferrer: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Victor Vodnik: Good reliever who is the closer.
Edwin Uceta: Good reliever who might be the backup closer.
Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller: Good relievers who are sharing backup closer duties.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Santana RP PIT | 39% | 41% | 2% |
| Edwin Uceta RP TB | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| Jose Ferrer RP WAS | 16% | 22% | 6% |
| Justin Topa RP MIN | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| Victor Vodnik RP COL | 4% | 16% | 12% |
| Shawn Armstrong RP TEX | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Andrew Kittredge RP CHC | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Brad Keller RP CHC | 3% | 5% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Good point on the Tigers reluctance to put Troy Melton in the rotation. He is simply a better pitcher than Paddack. As for closers I’m not sure I have seen as many average pitchers holding the closer roles on various teams.