FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 21)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Ernie Clement: Balanced profile (.276 AVG, 7 HR, 8 SB) and playing every game.
Jake McCarthy: Now that he’s playing every game, he’s a solid fantasy option with a .313 AVG, 6 HR, and 18 SB.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: He is finally hitting for average in August with a .286 AVG. Also, the non-zero power (5 HR) is a nice addition to his 23 SB.
Jo Adell: He has worked on his approach and dropped his strikeout rate from 30% K% in the first half to 23% K% in the second.
Gavin Lux: Since he started hitting the ball hard, he has a 1.095 OPS (.472 BABIP) with 5 HR in the second half.
Joey Ortiz: Oritz is off the IL and playing every game. On the season, he’s hitting an acceptable .249/.348/.406 with 8 HR and 6 SB in 366 PA.
Jhonkensy Noel: Maybe a full-time bat (four straight starts, one vs an LHP) with power (9 HR in 98 PA) and strikeouts (32% K%).
Parker Meadows: Strong-side platoon bat who provides some power (4 HR) and steals (8 SB) but his 31% K% has him with a .192 AVG. Since being promoted this time, he’s been able to drop his strikeout rate to 21% K% in 42 PA.
Matt Wallner: A Joc Pederson clone. Strong-side platoon bat with tons of power (7 HR in 128 PA) and strikeouts (40% K%).
Geraldo Perdomo: Remains a source of average (.280 AVG) but nothing else (1 HR, 4 SB).
Brendan Rodgers: Steady bat with a .280 AVG (.340 AVG at home, .222 AVG on the road) and 10 HR. On the road all week.
Jonah Bride: Playing every day in the middle of the Marlins lineup. While he has a 5 HR and a .275 AVG, it doesn’t look like much has changed under the hood with him.
Oswaldo Cabrera: He has started in two out of three games at third base since Chisholm went on the IL. In the second half, he’s dropped his strikeout rate by 7% points (20% to 13%) with his OPS jumping from .629 to .872. He provides some homers (8) and steals (4) but is not an average contributor in either one. This rank comes down to him being an everyday starter.
Andrés Chaparro: Hitting in the middle of the Nationals order with a triple slash line of .294/.368/.471 in 19 PA. In AAA, he had 23 HR and 3 SB while hitting .328/.405/.572.
Jace Jung: Hit fifth and played third base in his debut. While a top-100 prospect, projections aren’t kind to him with a sub-.700 OPS with some power and no stolen bases. I’m not sold he’s going to make a difference.
Alex Call: A .459 BABIP has Call on fire with a .951 OPS but little power (1 HR, .139 ISO).
Whit Merrifield: With Atlanta, Merrifield has a .677 OPS and 3 SB.
Andrew Benintendi: While on a hot streak (1.027 OPS), he’s shown his true skill by being a below-average hitter.
Zach Dezenzo: Started in seven of nine games since being promoted. He’s struggling at the plate with a 30% K%. When he does put the ball in play, he has a 53% GB%. All that leads to a .555 OPS.
Will Wagner: On the strong side of a Blue Jays second base platoon. In 12 PA so far, he has a .700 BABIP, so his stats look amazing (1.417 OPS).
David Peralta: Strong-side platoon bat who will head to the bench once Tatis returns from the IL.
Trey Sweeney: Hit eighth and played shortstop in his debut. Projections value him as a .650 OPS (replacement level bat) with below-average speed and power. Utility bat at most.
Jordan Walker: A short-side platoon bat with no lefties on the schedule next week.
Weston Wilson: Weak-side platoon bat who hit for the cycle this week. Even though he has a .999 OPS, he needs to play more to be fantasy-relevant.
Shay Whitcomb: The 25-year-old has been promoted to the bigs but hasn’t come to bat yet. In AAA, he was hitting .293/.378/.530 with 25 HR and 26 SB.
Catchers
Joey Bart: Hitting a solid 11 HR and .273 in 186 PA this season.
Adrian Del Castillo: After destroying AAA (1.011 OPS, 24 HR), he’s doing the same in the majors with a .949 OPS.
Hitting Prospects
Christian Moore: In AA, the 21-year-old is hitting .432/.500/.865 with 5 HR and 0 SB in 42 PA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Ortiz 3B MIL | 34% | 36% | 2% |
| Jo Adell RF LAA | 32% | 34% | 2% |
| Gavin Lux 2B LAD | 31% | 35% | 4% |
| Jordan Walker RF STL | 27% | 32% | 5% |
| Brendan Rodgers 2B COL | 26% | 30% | 4% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF CHC | 24% | 26% | 2% |
| Jake McCarthy RF ARI | 23% | 60% | 37% |
| Matt Wallner LF MIN | 21% | 27% | 6% |
| Ernie Clement 3B TOR | 18% | 25% | 7% |
| Parker Meadows CF DET | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Jhonkensy Noel RF CLE | 17% | 21% | 4% |
| Joey Bart C PIT | 14% | 27% | 13% |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS ARI | 13% | 20% | 7% |
| Whit Merrifield 2B ATL | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Jace Jung 3B DET | 12% | 18% | 6% |
| Oswaldo Cabrera 3B NYY | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Zach Dezenzo 1B HOU | 10% | 15% | 5% |
| Andrew Benintendi LF CHW | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| Adrian Del Castillo C ARI | 7% | 17% | 10% |
| Alex Call RF WAS | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Christian Moore 2B LAA | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Jonah Bride 1B MIA | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| Shay Whitcomb SS HOU | 3% | 8% | 5% |
| Trey Sweeney SS DET | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Andres Chaparro 1B WAS | 1% | 8% | 7% |
| Will Wagner 2B TOR | 0% | 7% | 7% |
| David Peralta RF SD | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| Weston Wilson LF PHI | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Starters
Zebby Matthews: Matthews refuses to walk batters (1.9 BB% across three minor league levels) and strikes out enough batters to possibly be in the top-30 pitcher discussion. I might be overly ambitious but he’s got a 95-mph fastball with an above-average slider (117 Stuff+) and cutter (112 Stuff+).
Matthew Boyd: The 33-year-old dominated the Cubs with 6 K, 0 BB, and just 1 in 5.1. Nothing was out of place from his previous arsenal with fastballs up less than 1 mph. His struggles the past couple of seasons have been from walks (5.4 BB/9 in ’22, 3.2 in ’23) but he only posted a 24% Ball% which … I don’t even have numbers down there. He’s not as sexy as Matthews but I could understand prioritizing him.
Martín Pérez: The Padres have reworked his arsenal (fewer fastballs, more secondaries) and in three starts he’s raised his K%-BB% from 8% to 25%.
Cody Bradford: Bradford is back with his fastball-changeup combination. I’m not a fan of having only a changeup as an outpitch, but his is that good (16% SwStr%, 46% GB%). What helps Bradford is that his 90-mph fastball generates a ton of swing-and-miss (12% SwStr%).
Ryne Nelson: Nelson keeps getting it done in the second half with a 10.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. The simple answer is that he leans into his fastball (9% SwStr%) more and more. While the strikeouts and lack of walks can’t be ignored, I’m not 100% sure how he’s doing it with just his fastball. Majik.
Grant Holmes: Holmes has been unlucky with 4.57 ERA (3.01 xFIP) but the rest of his underlying stats have been great (10.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 50% GB%). The only issue is that with Montas coming off the IL, Holmes doesn’t have a rotation spot. Maybe it’s time for Morton to be a long reliever. I might have him second if the playing time was secure.
Bowden Francis: Since making an arsenal adjustment in early July, he has a 3.43 ERA (3.79 xFIP), 8.6 K/9, and 0.86 WHIP. One note, he is flyball prone (30% GB%) and has allowed a decent number of homers (2.6 HR/9) over this good run.
Spencer Arrighetti: Sometimes the walks (4.2 BB/9) and homers (1.4 HR/9) cause a blowup like his last start against the White Sox (4 ER in 5 IP), but the strikeouts are nice (10.9 K/9). With Justin Verlander returning from the IL, there is a chance his workload gets cut.
DJ Herz: While the walks (3.1 BB/9) and home runs (1.6 HR/9) keep him from being elite, he’s still decent with a 4.25 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9. One item to watch is the walks with six of them over his last two starts (8.2 IP). While the team context is better for Arrighetti, Herz might be more talented.
Tyler Mahle: He’s been on the lucky side by walking a decent number of batters (3.7 BB/9) while not allowing any home runs this season (career 1.4 HR/9). His 2.79 ERA, 2.86 FIP, and 2.65 xERA will likely regress to his 4.91 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA once the home runs come unless he makes some major improvements. It doesn’t help that his fastball is at a career-low 92.2 mph.
Nick Martinez: Been tolerable this season as a starter (4.95 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 6.8 K/9, 0.8 BB/9) and better over his last three starts (8 K/9 0 BB/9 3.33 xFIP). There have been no major changes to his profile so he’s just dealing with the ups and downs of a season.
Albert Suárez 수아레즈: Suárez has been serviceable as a starter (3.43 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.35 WHIP), but his spot in the rotation always seems up for grabs. On the season, he has 17 starts and 10 relief appearances between the major and minors. Next week, he’s lined up to face the Astros, so I’m likely passing for now.
Osvaldo Bido: Similar profile to Bellozo but with more walks (4.2 BB/9). He has also not been burn by home runs (0.4 HR/9) even with a 31% GB%. It helps that he’s thrown 60% of his innings at the spacious Oakland Coliseum. With two straight shutouts (only change I found was him leaning into his fastball more), I’m sure his demand will be decent.
David Peterson: An 82% LOB% has his ERA down at 3.04 while everything else in his profile points to a 4.50 ERA or higher talent. His 1.39 WHIP from a 4.3 BB/9 is unrosterable in a Roto league. Of the 127 starters with at least 70 IP this season, his 7.1 K%-BB% ranks 121st.
Valente Bellozo: In five starts, the 24-year-old righty has a 2.28 ERA (4.74 xFIP), 0.94 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9. ERA estimators aren’t a fan of his 23% GB% projecting him for a 1.5 HR/9, not the 0.7 HR/9 he currently has. There might be a little strikeout upside if he threw his slider (13% SwStr%, 13% usage) and change (12% SwStr%, 12% usage) more. His 90-mph four-seamer grades out as one of the worst pitches I’ve seen (54 Stuff+, 25 BotStuff).
Cade Povich: Povich can’t find the strike zone in the majors with almost as many walks (23) and strikeouts (25). He has earned his 6.27 ERA (6.20 xFIP). Pass [Sunday morning update: I tear apart Povich and then he goes all “Slim” and throws a great game (6 IP, 6 K, 2 ER). His Ball% was 29% in the game. Until that point, it was 38%. So is the start breakout or a one-game blip?]
Frankie Montas: Scheduled for two starts next week (vs PHI, vs WSH) while coming off the IL. I’m not sold that Montas is a startable pitcher with a 4.86 ERA (4.58 xFIP) and a 1.46 WHIP. My only recommendation would be a roster-and-monitor for a week hoping for some improvement.
Edward Cabrera: His 5.3 BB/9 is a WHIP killer (1.50 WHIP) even though his ERA estimators (3.96 xFIP, 4.31 SIERA) point to some ERA improvement. He’s gotten worse as the season has gone on with a 21% K%-BB% in the first half and down to 6% in the second half.
Jonathan Cannon: While Cannon’s ERA has dropped from 4.41 in the first half to 3.34 in the second half, the underlying numbers point to a worse pitcher. His K%-BB% dropped from 12% to 5% thereby increasing his xFIP from 4.14 to 5.66. Hard pass.
Taijuan Walker: A solid 5.00 ERA talent with no obvious upside. Stay away.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti SP HOU | 37% | 71% | 34% |
| Frankie Montas SP MIL | 36% | 38% | 2% |
| Tyler Mahle SP TEX | 34% | 46% | 12% |
| David Peterson SP NYM | 33% | 41% | 8% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 33% | 37% | 4% |
| Cody Bradford SP TEX | 32% | 40% | 8% |
| Edward Cabrera SP MIA | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Taijuan Walker SP PHI | 25% | 30% | 5% |
| Martin Perez SP SD | 19% | 34% | 15% |
| Davidjohn Herz SP WAS | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Albert Suarez SP BAL | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Jonathan Cannon SP CHW | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Zebby Matthews SP MIN | 8% | 34% | 26% |
| Nick Martinez RP CIN | 8% | 26% | 18% |
| Cade Povich SP BAL | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Bowden Francis RP TOR | 7% | 23% | 16% |
| Grant Holmes RP ATL | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Matthew Boyd SP CLE | 4% | 18% | 14% |
| Valente Bellozo SP MIA | 2% | 11% | 9% |
| Osvaldo Bido RP OAK | 2% | 5% | 3% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Ryan Walker: Excellent reliever who is the closer.
Lucas Erceg: Excellent reliever who is the closer.
Seranthony Domínguez: Good reliever who seems to have won the closer’s job.
Justin Martinez: Good reliever who is the closer.
Calvin Faucher: Good reliever who is the closer.
Victor Vodnik: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Michael Kopech: Good reliever who could be the closer.
Aroldis Chapman: Good reliever who is backing up a shaky closer.
Tyler Holton: Below-average reliever who is part of a closer by committee.
Jason Adam: Average reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Walker RP SF | 30% | 59% | 29% |
| Michael Kopech RP LAD | 23% | 29% | 6% |
| Justin Martinez RP ARI | 21% | 46% | 25% |
| Jason Adam RP SD | 20% | 22% | 2% |
| Aroldis Chapman RP PIT | 19% | 21% | 2% |
| Victor Vodnik RP COL | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Lucas Erceg RP KC | 13% | 27% | 14% |
| Tyler Holton RP DET | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Seranthony Dominguez RP BAL | 2% | 17% | 15% |
| Calvin Faucher RP MIA | 8% | 9% | 1% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Assuming you mean Lopez and not Montas regarding Holmes.