FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 19)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Xavier Edwards: In 122 PA, he has 11 SB with a .382 AVG (.452 BABIP). Solid rabbit with a great on-base rate (.455 OBP).
Jake McCarthy: Solid speed source (16 SB, 3 HR, .294 AVG) who is starting 80% of the time.
Victor Robles: Remains elite (.367/.425/.557, 3 HR, 10 SB) since joining the Mariners. It has only taken him seven seasons to live up to his prospect hype.
Eugenio Suárez: After struggling for most of the season, he was on fire in July (10 HR, 1.131 OPS). Now he needs to keep on producing.
Tommy Pham: Three straight starts in left field so far with the Cardinals. He has a nice .275 AVG, his 6 HR and 6 SB in 311 PA are a little disappointing.
Nolan Schanuel: Solid, boring season so far with 11 HR, 4 SB, and .256 AVG.
Gavin Lux: On fire (1.289) since the All-Star break and it’s not all BABIP (.565 BABIP) driven but tons of power (.368 ISO). I’m not buying any breakout just yet. He takes about 40 days for hitting stats to stabilize and Lux isn’t close to his career highs. Ranked based on a small chance there is a breakout going on.
Jacob Young: Decent stolen base contributor with 26 bags but just 1 HR.
Josh Bell: He’ll contribute for a few weeks with Christian Walker on the IL. Solid bat with 16 HR and a .241 AVG on the season.
Dylan Moore: At 12 straight starts with Crawford on the IL. His batting average (.211 AVG) has been a drain but he does have 9 HR and 20 SB.
Ernie Clement: Balanced but below average profile (6 HR, 5 SB, .270 AVG, 253 PA). Has started in 12 straight games while hitting fifth or sixth.
Hunter Renfroe: Since June 1st, he’s hitting .313/.390/.547 with 7 HR in 146 PA.
Alex Call: Started in three of four games since being recalled from AAA. In AAA, he was hitting .222/.362/.413 with 11 HR and 13 SB. With a .524 BABIP in the majors, he has a 1.175 OPS.
Juan Yepez: Continues to hit for average (.348 AVG) but provides no power (2 HR) and speed (1 SB).
Matt Wallner: Strong-side platoon bat with 6 HR in 88 PA. Five righties are on the schedule for next week, so a tough stream.
Whit Merrifield: Seems to be the starting second baseman for the Braves with Albies on the IL. While the 35-year-old struggled (.572 OPS) with the Phillies, he was still running (11 SB). Might be a sneaky speed source for a few weeks.
Harold Ramírez: Hitting for average (.272 AVG) in the middle of the Nationals lineup but not much else (2 HR, 5 SB) in 235 PA.
Miguel Vargas: Has hit first or second since joining the White Sox. A .237 BABIP has his overall stats (.692) down but he is showing some nice power (.193 ISO, 4 HR) in 92 PA.
Austin Hays: Started in five of six games since joining the Phillies while being fantasy irrelevant (4 HR, 2 SB, .253 AVG in 197 PA) on the season.
Jorge Polanco: He’s been dealing with a knee injury for a while and his playing time is suffering. That’s too bad because in July he was putting up his best month so far with a .783 OPS and 5 HR. Roster if healthy.
Bligh Madris: On the strong-side of a first base platoon in Detroit. Hitting .321/.355/.357 in 31 PA so far.
Kyle Stowers: Hitting in the middle of the Marlins lineup while struggling with strikeouts (43% K%). In his case, he can’t keep up with fastballs. He has a 31% SwStr% against four-seamers and 25% SwStr% against sinkers.
Jerar Encarnacion: Since being promoted, he has just 4 PA. In AAA, he was hitting .352/.438/.616 with 10 HR and 1 SB in 146 PA.
Pedro León: On the MLB roster but has no plate appearances yet. In AAA, he was hitting .297/.377/.519 with 19 HR and 23 SB.
Catchers
Austin Wells: Yankees cleanup hitter with a .748 OPS. Does have 8 HR.
Freddy Fermin: Started eight times in the last 10 games. Hitting .313/.364/.445 with 8 HR on the season.
Dillon Dingler: Has 7 PA in the majors so far with 3 K. In AAA, he was hitting .308/.379/.559 with 17 HR and 5 SB in 301 PA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez 3B ARI | 39% | 50% | 11% |
| Josh Bell 1B ARI | 36% | 48% | 12% |
| Nolan Schanuel 1B LAA | 36% | 44% | 8% |
| Jacob Young CF WAS | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Juan Yepez 1B WAS | 34% | 51% | 17% |
| Xavier Edwards SS MIA | 29% | 68% | 39% |
| Jorge Polanco 2B SEA | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Dylan Moore SS SEA | 22% | 25% | 3% |
| Austin Wells C NYY | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Tommy Pham LF STL | 17% | 24% | 7% |
| Gavin Lux 2B LAD | 16% | 26% | 10% |
| Victor Robles RF SEA | 13% | 24% | 11% |
| Jake McCarthy RF ARI | 13% | 17% | 4% |
| Matt Wallner LF MIN | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Whit Merrifield 2B ATL | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Miguel Vargas 3B CHW | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| Austin Hays LF PHI | 8% | 14% | 6% |
| Hunter Renfroe RF KC | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Freddy Fermin C KC | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Ernie Clement 3B TOR | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Harold Ramirez DH WAS | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Kyle Stowers LF MIA | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Pedro Leon LF HOU | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Dillon Dingler C DET | 1% | 6% | 5% |
| Jerar Encarnacion LF SF | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| Alex Call RF WAS | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Bligh Madris DH DET | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Starting Pitchers
Hayden Birdsong: Since the Giants traded away Alex Cobb, a spot opened up in the rotation for Birdsong. In six starts, Birdsong has a 2.97 WHIP (3.83 xFIP), 1.22 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9. The 22-year-old’s only weakness is his 4.5 BB/9 which usually leads to a high WHIP. A .269 BABIP keeps his WHIP in check.
River Ryan: His 0.82 ERA (4.90 ERA) over 11 IP sticks out. He’s tough to evaluate because the results have been good except he’s walking a ton of batters (4.9 BB/9 backed by a 41% Ball%). It’s tough to know his talent level after 11 IP, but he did meet my beginning-of-season top pitching prospects.
Using some work I did for @FantasyProcess, I came up with a formula to target pitching prospects
Two variables seem to be different from the rankings (none included)
1. Projections included
2. Too many walks in AA or AAA don't factor into MLB successHence Brown's high ranking pic.twitter.com/hzRd5hOw7i
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 28, 2024
Grant Holmes: The 28-year-old got a start and went 5 IP with 8 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER. He attacked batter with an even mix of four-seamers (12% SwStr%), cutters (9% SwStr%), sliders (20% SwStr%), and curvers (19% SwStr%). While it has taken him a while to get the majors, so far he looks like he has the stuff to stay. One key to watch going forward is if he can keep up is velocity making the transiition from relieving to starting.
David Festa: The 24-year-old is performing better this stint in the majors (26% K%-BB%, 10.80 ERA) than the first time (15% K%-BB%, 2.89 ERA). There are no obvious changes to his approach the second time. One issue he might have to navigate around is a high home run rate with his 29% GB%. Not 2.8 HR/9 high but possibly half that. This ranking is entirely based on the second-half results continuing.
Andre Pallante: For a bit, Pallante seemed to be headed to the bullpen but he’s back in the rotation with a decent two-step next week (vs NYM, at KC). A solid 62% GB% helps him to be a 4.00 ERA talent.
Paul Blackburn: Consistent arm with a 4.30 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last three seasons. Steam against weak opponents.
Carson Spiers: While he’s been a little lucky in the home run front (0.9 HR/9) given his flyball nature (38% GB%), he seems to be another 4.00 ERA talent. Not game-changing but usable.
Tyler Phillips: I was high on Phillips last week and that blew up in my face and on my teams. In his Friday start, he allowed 8 ER on 3 HR, 3 BB, and just 1 K. While he was lucky early on, this start evened out the season-long numbers (4.39 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 6.8 K/9). While his 1.80 ERA wasn’t going to last, he now falls into the 4.00 ERA talents who are streamed.
JP Sears: Just a streamer against other weak teams. Better in the second half (20% K%-BB%) than the first half (10% K%). The improvement is from not walking anyone. He dropped his walk rate from 2.9 BB/9 to 0.5 BB/9.
Ryne Nelson: He was getting by on his fastball, but its results have fallen off to just a 9% SwStr%. He has shown some second-half improvement (4.51 xFIP to 3.36 xFIP) by backing off his ineffective curve (5% SwStr%) and cutter (6% SwStr%).
Carson Fulmer: In four starts, Fulmer has a 3.43 ERA (4.24 xFIP), 0.81 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9. The 30-year-old is productive because he’s dropped his walk rate to 3.0 BB/9 (35% Ball%) as a starter. Over his career, he had posted a 5.1 BB/9
Trevor Rogers: A career-low 7.2 K/9 and four-year high 4.0 BB/9 has him as a mid to high-4.00’s talent. To return to his previous glory, he needs to get the results on his slider and change back to previous levels.
Starters Rehabbing
Alex Cobb: Expected to make his 2024 major league debut next week.
Tyler Mahle: Expected to return from the IL and into a two-step week (vs HOU, at NYY). Worth rostering but not to start this first week.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Birdsong SP SF | 30% | 52% | 22% |
| River Ryan P LAD | 30% | 46% | 16% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 26% | 36% | 10% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 21% | 28% | 7% |
| Andre Pallante SP STL | 20% | 24% | 4% |
| Tyler Phillips SP PHI | 19% | 53% | 34% |
| Paul Blackburn SP NYM | 19% | 24% | 5% |
| Trevor Rogers SP BAL | 14% | 21% | 7% |
| Carson Spiers SP CIN | 13% | 19% | 6% |
| Alex Cobb SP CLE | 11% | 18% | 7% |
| Jose Butto RP NYM | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Tyler Mahle SP TEX | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| David Festa SP MIN | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Carson Fulmer RP LAA | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Grant Holmes RP ATL | 1% | 7% | 6% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Chad Green: Good reliever who is the closer.
Victor Vodnik: OK reliever who is the closer.
Ben Joyce: OK reliever who could end up being the closer in a turbulent bullpen.
Lucas Erceg: Good reliever who could end up being the closer in a turbulent bullpen.
Calvin Faucher: OK reliever who could end up being the closer in a turbulent bullpen.
Tyler Ferguson: OK reliever who seems to be the closer for a few more days.
Ryan Thompson: Below-average reliever who could end up being the closer in a turbulent bullpen.
Kevin Ginkel: OK reliever who could end up being the closer in a turbulent bullpen.
Andrew Nardi: OK reliever who could end up being the closer in a turbulent bullpen.
Hunter Strickland: Below-average reliever who could end up being the closer in a turbulent bullpen.
Luis Garcia: OK reliever who might get a few Saves with a banged-up Kenley Jansen.
Cade Smith: Great reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
José Buttó: Not getting one inning Saves but getting a couple of multi-inning ones. Safe bullpen arm.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Green RP TOR | 27% | 39% | 12% |
| Cade Smith RP CLE | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Kevin Ginkel RP ARI | 14% | 15% | 1% |
| Ben Joyce RP LAA | 12% | 30% | 18% |
| Lucas Erceg RP KC | 7% | 12% | 5% |
| Victor Vodnik RP COL | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Andrew Nardi RP MIA | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Ryan Thompson RP ARI | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Luis Garcia RP BOS | 1% | 11% | 10% |
| Tyler Ferguson RP OAK | 1% | 9% | 8% |
| Grant Holmes RP ATL | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| Calvin Faucher RP MIA | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Hunter Strickland RP LAA | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Because Nardi is only 25 years old Miami should put him in the closer role this year and beyond. For a playoff team the Royals have a weak bullpen and can’t seem to decide on any plan. Good info and thanks.