FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 18)
Dennis Lee-Imagn Images
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Ramón Laureano: Finally, he’s over the 40% so I don’t have put him on the top of the rankings again next week.
Andrew Vaughn: Continues to dominate with the Brewers while batting .386/.448/.772 with 6 HR in 67 PA.
Isaac Collins: A pleasant surprise with 6 HR, 12 SB, and .274 AVG in 279 PA.
Warming Bernabel: He never stops. Right now, he’s batting .500/.517/1.036 with a .500 BABIP and 30% HR/FB. Add to see if it’s real, but be ready to move on in a week or two once it all falls apart.
Jakob Marsee: Just promoted to the majors while batting .246/.379/.438 with 14 HR and 57 SB in AAA.
Alex Freeland: Started in three straight games (more than I expected). Balanced production in AAA (.253/.377/.421, 12 HR, 17 SB) and a top add if he continues to play.
Angel Martínez: Steady contributor (9 HR, 6 SB, .241 AVG) qualified at two positions (2B, OF).
Lenyn Sosa: Providing power (11 HR) and batting average (.282 AVG) while qualified at two positions (2B, 3B).
Jesús Sánchez: I’m not sure if he’ll be platooned, but he has started both games (vs RHP) while batting second or third in the order. Sanchez with 10 HR, 9 SB, and .259 AVG.
Kyle Manzardo: Strong-side platoon bat with 24 HR.
Mickey Moniak: Solid platoon bat (16 HR, 5 SB, .270) who needs to be in fantasy lineups when playing.
Colson Montgomery: Compared to AAA, his swinging-strike rate is up (13% to 17%), but his strikeouts are down (33% to 25%). He does have 6 HR in 85 PA.
Harrison Bader: He’ll start in a platoon with 12 HR and 10 SB so far this season.
Mike Tauchman: Started in three of the five games against a lefty. Hitting for average (.291 AVG) and power (7 HR).
Nathan Lukes: Solid strong-side platoon bat with 9 HR in 273 PA.
Daulton Varsho: Off the IL and should be getting most of the centerfield reps. Before going on the IL, he hit 8 HR but with just a .200 AVG (32% K%).
Joey Loperfido: Rarely starts against lefties but is riding a .475 BABIP to .386/.435/.579. He’s making more contact this year (68% to 77%). I’d prefer Lukes right now, but Loperfido is interesting.
Ryan Mountcastle: Continues to destroy AAA pitching (.391/.440/.783) and should return to the majors any day now.
Ronny Mauricio: Not a zero at the plate (112 wRC+) and only starting against righties (.256 OPS vs LHP, .908 OPS vs RHP).
Josh Jung: Something is constantly wrong with Jung (calf right now). His limited production is only worth the hassle in the deepest of leagues.
Tyler O’Neill: Decent power source (7 HR in 159 PA) if playing. Has never reached over 550 PA in a season.
Heriberto Hernandez: Should have taken over the centerfield role, but Jakob Marsee’s promotion quelled that dream.
Coby Mayo: Since the trade deadline, started twice at first base. He’s not contributing in any fantasy facet. Ignore Mayo and add someone who is hitting.
Ke’Bryan Hayes: The league’s worst qualified batter (57 wRC+). Unless your league counts defense, ignore.
Spencer Horwitz: Strong-side platoon bat who is not contributing to any fantasy category.
Tyler Locklear: Supposed to be the starting first baseman for the Diamondbacks. Over two seasons in the majors, he has a 42% K%. Ignore until he starts hitting.
Catchers
Francisco Alvarez: Since coming back from the minors, he is batting .280/.400/.560.
Batting Prospects
Jordan Lawlar: In AAA, the 23-year-old shortstop has hit .319/.410/.583 with 10 HR and 18 SB in 250 PA.
Spencer Jones: Across two minor league levels, the 24-year-old outfielder has hit .312/.407/.688 with 29 HR and 19 SB.
Dylan Beavers: In AAA, the 23-year-old outfielder has hit .304/.414/.502 with 14 HR and 22 SB.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Moniak RF COL | 37% | 45% | 8% |
| Josh Jung 3B TEX | 37% | 42% | 5% |
| Tyler O’Neill RF BAL | 36% | 48% | 12% |
| Kyle Manzardo DH CLE | 31% | 37% | 6% |
| Francisco Alvarez C NYM | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Jordan Lawlar 2B ARI | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Ramon Laureano RF SD | 29% | 47% | 18% |
| Angel Martinez CF CLE | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Spencer Jones CF NYY | 27% | 33% | 6% |
| Colson Montgomery SS CHW | 25% | 42% | 17% |
| Daulton Varsho CF TOR | 25% | 27% | 2% |
| Coby Mayo 1B BAL | 23% | 27% | 4% |
| Jesus Sanchez RF HOU | 22% | 24% | 2% |
| Andrew Vaughn 1B MIL | 19% | 43% | 24% |
| Ronny Mauricio 3B NYM | 19% | 22% | 3% |
| Ryan Mountcastle 1B BAL | 16% | 17% | 1% |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B CHW | 15% | 18% | 3% |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B CIN | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Isaac Collins LF MIL | 13% | 16% | 3% |
| Harrison Bader LF PHI | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B PIT | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| Alex Freeland 3B LAD | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Tyler Locklear 1B ARI | 4% | 15% | 11% |
| Mike Tauchman RF CHW | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Nathan Lukes RF TOR | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Dylan Beavers OF BAL | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Joey Loperfido LF TOR | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF MIA | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Warming Bernabel 1B COL | 1% | 13% | 12% |
| Jakob Marsee OF MIA | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Starting Pitchers
J.T. Ginn: Sorry, I missed him last week, but he’s a must-add and needs to be the guy at 57% rostered instead of Patrick Corbin. A 9.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 54% GB% are ace-like numbers.
Joey Wentz: With Atlanta, he has a 1.50 ERA (3.09 xFIP), 10.5 K/9, and 0.72 WHIP. Two reasons for the turnaround. First, the lower walk rate will always help. Second, he reworked his cutter since joining the Braves.
About a month ago, he said he tweaked the grip on his best pitch, a cutter, and it’s been more effective. A lot more.
His resurgence as a starter has come at a time when the Braves are desperate to fill spots in their injury-riddled starting rotation. He’s nailing down one of them.
Add now to see if the results continue.
Mike Burrows: Settling in to be a solid streaming option, maybe more. He added an elite sinker over his last two starts (80 botStf, 127 Stuff+). Solid add in all leagues.
Luis Severino: On a four-game stretch with a 2.49 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.15 WHIP. The only reason for the strikeout increase is from gaining ~1 mph on his fastball.
Frankie Montas: He’s getting hit around a bit (1.8 HR/9, .326 BABIP), thereby pushing up his ratios (1.45 WHIP, 5.46 ERA). Otherwise, all signs point to a 4.00 ERA streamer.
Jack Perkins: Moving to the rotation. As a starter in AAA, the 25-year-old righty had a 2.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 13.9 K/9. He struggled with walks (4.1 BB/9). In the majors as a reliever, he posted a 2.75 ERA (3.83 xFIP), 0.92 WHIP (3.2 BB/9), and 8.7 K/9. While he has a ton of swing-and-miss, I’m worried about him walking too many batters.
Brad Lord: Became a streamable option as he got his walks under control. Over the first two months, he posted a 3.8 BB/9. It has been a 1.9 BB/9 over the last two months. If the walks stay down, he’s pitching like a high-3.00 ERA talent.
Patrick Corbin: A streamable 4.00 ERA talent.
JP Sears: His 28% GB% has led to a 1.9 HR/9, leading to a 4.95 ERA (4.02 xFIP). Streamer until he gets the home runs in check.
Michael Soroka: All his struggles (4.87 ERA) come from not being able to get lefties out. His fantasy value will be determined by the Cubs solving that problem.
Chris Paddack: An up-and-down season with disappointing overall results (4.77 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.8 K/9). He’s on a hot stretch right now with a 9.5 K/9, but he’s seen similar stretches.
I’m betting on the season-long numbers to continue.
Justin Verlander: His walks (3.4 BB/9, 1.49 WHIP) are the only thing holding him back this season (4.53 ERA, 4.79 xFIP).
Charlie Morton: Now with the Tigers. The 41-year-old is productive when he keeps the walks down (2.9 BB/9 in June). The problem right now is his 4.3 BB/9 leading to 1.53 WHIP (equivalent to a 5.69 ERA).
Aaron Civale: Over his last two starts (CHC and PIT), he has a 9.8 K/9 and 0.8 BB/9. The starts coincided with throwing his curve (11% SwStr%, 56 botOver, 108 Pitching+) 10% points more. Overall, he’s not been decent, so I’d just monitor the change to see if there is a reason to buy in later.
Cal Quantrill: The 31-year-old is sort of streamable with the walks under control this year (4.2 BB/9 to 2.4 BB/9) with a 4.33 xFIP. I haven’t gotten to the point of rostering him just yet.
Carson Whisenhunt: While ranked as the Giants’ third-best prospect, the Pirates destroyed him in his debut (5 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, and 2 BB). By all accounts, his changeup is his best pitch, but no starter is successful with a 92-mph fastball and elite change. They don’t exist, and I’m not betting on Whisenhunt to be the first.
Ryan Bergert: While a .217 BABIP is keeping his ratios in check, his 4.5 BB/9 is well past the unrosterable level. I’ll monitor to see how his start next week goes.
Logan Evans: His 1.44 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 5.16 ERA. His entire profile is below average. Steady high 4.00 ERA talent.
Kyle Hendricks He’s a solid high-4.00 ERA talent with no upside. At least he’s giving NAIA pitchers hope to make it to the majors with his 86-mph fastball.
Bailey Falter: Now with Kansas City and might lineup for two starts next week. All indicators point to him being a high-4.00 ERA talent with no pitch having a swinging-strike rate over 10%.
Troy Melton: With the additions of Paddack and Morton, Melton is moving to a relief role. Well shoot … sadly, a drop.
Rehabbing Starters
Kyle Bradish: Just 5 IP into his minor league rehab.
Cristian Javier: In 11 IP of rehab, he has 11 BB and 9 K in 10 IP so far.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin SP TEX | 40% | 57% | 17% |
| Charlie Morton SP DET | 40% | 42% | 2% |
| Mike Soroka SP CHC | 35% | 47% | 12% |
| JP Sears SP SD | 34% | 43% | 9% |
| Luis Severino SP ATH | 33% | 46% | 13% |
| Justin Verlander SP SF | 33% | 41% | 8% |
| Kyle Bradish SP BAL | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Frankie Montas SP NYM | 27% | 35% | 8% |
| Bailey Falter SP PIT | 26% | 30% | 4% |
| Chris Paddack SP DET | 16% | 26% | 10% |
| Cristian Javier SP HOU | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Logan Evans SP SEA | 14% | 21% | 7% |
| Aaron Civale SP CHW | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Carson Whisenhunt P SF | 9% | 18% | 9% |
| Michael Burrows SP PIT | 8% | 18% | 10% |
| Troy Melton SP DET | 7% | 14% | 7% |
| Kyle Hendricks SP LAA | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Ryan Bergert SP KC | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| J.T. Ginn RP ATH | 3% | 10% | 7% |
| Brad Lord RP WAS | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Cal Quantrill SP MIA | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Joey Wentz RP ATL | 1% | 11% | 10% |
| Name | IP | BotERA | Pitching+ERA | SwStr% ERA | FBv ERA | SIERA | xFIP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack | 12.0 | 2.91 | 3.49 | 3.29 | 4.01 | 2.32 | 2.30 | 3.05 |
| Mike Burrows | 17.0 | 3.45 | 3.59 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 3.02 | 2.74 | 3.40 |
| Luis Severino | 17.0 | 2.14 | 3.36 | 4.50 | 3.65 | 3.41 | 3.39 | 3.41 |
| Troy Melton | 12.0 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 3.41 | 3.64 | 3.31 | 3.34 | 3.44 |
| Aaron Civale | 11.0 | 4.29 | 3.55 | 4.32 | 4.27 | 2.49 | 2.41 | 3.55 |
| J.T. Ginn | 11.0 | 3.76 | 2.32 | 4.21 | 3.95 | 3.74 | 3.78 | 3.63 |
| Brad Lord | 9.1 | 2.83 | 4.25 | 4.19 | 3.84 | 3.90 | 3.58 | 3.76 |
| Joey Wentz | 15.0 | 3.29 | 4.52 | 3.92 | 4.11 | 3.61 | 3.49 | 3.82 |
| JP Sears | 9.1 | 3.82 | 4.00 | 3.91 | 4.35 | 3.43 | 3.84 | 3.89 |
| Patrick Corbin | 10.2 | 4.50 | 4.59 | 3.85 | 4.28 | 3.09 | 3.33 | 3.94 |
| Jack Perkins | 10.0 | 4.21 | 4.45 | 3.52 | 3.70 | 4.01 | 4.04 | 3.99 |
| Frankie Montas | 10.0 | 3.77 | 3.59 | 4.44 | 3.87 | 4.42 | 4.44 | 4.09 |
| Logan Evans | 13.2 | 3.17 | 4.21 | 4.99 | 4.16 | 4.50 | 4.74 | 4.30 |
| Charlie Morton | 12.2 | 2.32 | 5.10 | 4.40 | 3.91 | 5.32 | 5.22 | 4.38 |
| Bailey Falter | 12.0 | 3.89 | 4.68 | 5.05 | 4.20 | 4.64 | 4.59 | 4.51 |
| Cal Quantrill | 16.0 | 5.55 | 5.15 | 4.49 | 4.00 | 4.09 | 3.90 | 4.53 |
| Justin Verlander | 10.0 | 4.65 | 4.04 | 4.90 | 3.91 | 5.27 | 5.59 | 4.73 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 10.2 | 4.03 | 4.73 | 4.16 | 5.13 | 5.74 | 5.38 | 4.86 |
| Ryan Bergert | 4.0 | 4.50 | 4.32 | 5.00 | 4.11 | 6.23 | 5.97 | 5.02 |
| Michael Soroka | 9.0 | 6.05 | 6.07 | 5.12 | 4.44 | 3.87 | 5.20 | 5.13 |
| Carson Whisenhunt | 5.0 | 5.53 | 5.91 | 5.76 | 4.25 | 5.15 | 5.19 | 5.30 |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Cade Smith: Great reliever who is the closer.
Randy Rodríguez: Great reliever who is the closer.
JoJo Romero: Average reliever who is the closer.
Keegan Akin: Average reliever who is the closer.
Kevin Ginkel: Average reliever who is the closer.
Dennis Santana: Average reliever who is the closer.
Robert Garcia: Good reliever who is the closer, but two straight bad outings (L, BS)
Calvin Faucher: Average reliever who now appears to be the closer again.
Jose Ferrer: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Sean Newcomb: Average reliever who could be the closer.
Cole Sands: Below-average reliever who could be the closer.
Alex Vesia: Good reliever who seems to be in a closer-by-committee.
Blake Treinen: Great reliever who seems to be in a closer-by-committee.
Phil Maton: Good reliever who is the backup to a struggling closer.
Tony Santillan: Average reliever who is the backup to a struggling closer.
Hunter Gaddis: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Garrett Whitlock: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Yennier Cano: Average reliever who could be the backup closer.
Corbin Martin: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Griffin Jax: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Jeremiah Estrada: Great reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Riley O’Brien: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Adrian Morejon: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Seth Halvorsen: Elbow injury, likely out for a while.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Soroka SP CHC | 35% | 47% | 12% |
| Cade Smith RP CLE | 32% | 56% | 24% |
| Robert Garcia RP TEX | 32% | 45% | 13% |
| Randy Rodriguez RP SF | 30% | 53% | 23% |
| Adrian Morejon RP SD | 22% | 26% | 4% |
| Alex Vesia RP LAD | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Dennis Santana RP PIT | 18% | 34% | 16% |
| Griffin Jax RP TB | 18% | 29% | 11% |
| Jeremiah Estrada RP SD | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Blake Treinen RP LAD | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Kevin Ginkel RP ARI | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Garrett Whitlock RP BOS | 11% | 14% | 3% |
| Seth Halvorsen RP COL | 11% | 13% | 2% |
| Jack Perkins RP ATH | 9% | 17% | 8% |
| Tony Santillan RP CIN | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Phil Maton RP TEX | 7% | 14% | 7% |
| Hunter Gaddis RP CLE | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| JoJo Romero RP STL | 3% | 16% | 13% |
| Yennier Cano RP BAL | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Cole Sands RP MIN | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Jose Ferrer RP WAS | 1% | 8% | 7% |
| Keegan Akin RP BAL | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Sean Newcomb RP ATH | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Calvin Faucher RP MIA | 12% | 13% | 1% |
| Corbin Martin RP BAL | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Riley O’Brien RP STL | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Andrew Vaughn is transformed. I pointed out when he was traded that he has always been able to pull heat, and a guy who can do that should not be considered hopeless (although there are Jarred Kelenics out there).
It’s not just that Vaughn is mashing. Since moving to the Brewers, his strikeout rate has plummeted, his xwOBA has soared to near .400, and he has an 8/10 BB/K line.
At this point, he is walking repudiation of the belief that BB/K is both the stickiest and most predictive stat.