FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 18)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Lawrence Butler: In July, he is hitting .384/.438/.890 with 9 HR and 3 SB. Good skills and now getting a chance to play.
Connor Norby: He seems to be the starting second baseman while providing production in all categories. In AAA, he hit .297/.389/.519 with 16 HR and 13 SB.
Tyler Fitzgerald: Since the break, Fitzgerald is hitting .500/.586/1.417 with six of his 12 hits being home runs. He wasn’t horrible in the first half of the season with a .768 OPS but the Giants kept jacking him around (not in a Reese McGuire way) and only had 86 PA. All signs point to heavy regression downward, but the hot streak has him a regular with seven straight starts while batting second.
Victor Robles: Who saw the Robles breaking out in all places, Seattle, where hitters go to die? With the Mariners, the 27-year-old is hitting .364/.444/.564 with 2 HR and 8 SB in 65 PA. A .419 BABIP helps but so does dropping your strikeout rate from 27% to 15%. I might be buying too much in the hype.
Xavier Edwards: While the .433 BABIP won’t continue to boost up his .363 AVG, Blake Snell’s slap-dick prospect is an on-base machine (.442 OBP, 14% BB%) who is stealing some base (6 SB).
Blake Snell lol pic.twitter.com/sjwTZNU5f6
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) December 6, 2019
Max Schuemann: His speed (10 SB in 284 PA) is starting to make a difference. Not a zero in power (6 HR) and batting average (.263 AVG).
Wenceel Pérez: A solid season with 7 HR, 9 SB, and a .254 AVG in 330 PA.
Gavin Lux: He made some adjustments at the break and is hitting .478/.500/.913 with 2 HR and 1 SB since then. I don’t buy any major changes but I could see using him as a bench bat to see if I’m wrong and the talent change is real.
Austin Hays: This ranking could be too high but with one game as Philly, Hays started in left field and hit ninth against a righty. When given a full season of plate appearances, Hays hits around 20 HR with a .250 AVG. Hays might see a few more homers with 72 expected home runs since 2017 in Philly versus 59 in Baltimore.
Ernie Clement: Hitting a semi-useful .258/.276/.413 with 6 HR and 4 SB in 223 PA. Started in 12 of the last 13 games at third base for the Blue Jays.
Matt Vierling: Steady contributions with 13 HR and a .251 AVG.
Michael Toglia: More than a streamer at home. The Rockie has hit 16 HR and chipped in 4 SB. The .211 AVG can be a drag.
Miguel Andujar: Has a .297 AVG but just 4 HR and 2 SB. Volume play right now.
Jose Iglesias: The 34-year-old has started in eight of the last 10 games because of his .365 AVG (.389 BABIP, 10% K%). He is getting to a decent amount of power this season with a career-high 86.4 mph avgEV. Being a lineup regular is the key to his fantasy value.
Juan Yepez: A .431 BABIP has him with a .375 AVG with no power or speed.
Angel Martínez: Better real-life than fantasy player. Continues to bat second. It is crazy that he only has 15 R+RBI in 90 PA.
Justyn-Henry Malloy: He has started in six of the last seven games. Playing time for him has been an issue. His 35% K% suppresses his batting average (.212 AVG) but he has hit 7 HR in 136 PA.
Otto Lopez: Back and playing every game. A decent source of steals (8 SB) but not much else (3 HR, .236 AVG).
Hunter Renfroe: While hitting for some power (9 HR), he’s not providing any other fantasy traits.
Jo Adell: I’m not sure why someone who has a .649 OPS and hasn’t had an extra base hit since the break is being added.
Kris Bryant: A .571 BABIP since coming off the IL has him looking great (.308/.357/.385) even with a 43% K%. The deal is, I’m not sure what Bryant does anymore with his power down (sub-.100 ISO).
Tyler Locklear: Has been recalled to play some first base for the Mariners. In the majors, he is struggling with a 38% K% but does have 2 HR.
Nacho Alvarez Jr.: The 21-year-old is getting eaten up by major league pitching with a 41% K%. Pitchers don’t fear him as seen by the 76% fastballs (14% SwStr%) seen.
Catchers
Travis d’Arnaud: Started in five of the last eight games over Sean Murphy. Also, d’Arnaud is hitting fifth and sixth with Murphy at seventh or eighth.
Austin Wells: Hitting like a catcher with 8 HR and a .235 AVG
Hitting Prospects
Deyvison De Los Santos: Across AA and AAA, the 21-year-old is hitting .325/.376/.635 with 28 HR and 1 SB in 372 PA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling CF DET | 39% | 41% | 2% |
| Michael Toglia 1B COL | 38% | 43% | 5% |
| Lawrence Butler RF OAK | 33% | 76% | 43% |
| Jo Adell RF LAA | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Travis d’Arnaud C ATL | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Kris Bryant DH COL | 23% | 24% | 1% |
| Miguel Andujar LF OAK | 18% | 22% | 4% |
| Angel Martinez CF CLE | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Max Schuemann SS OAK | 15% | 37% | 22% |
| Wenceel Perez RF DET | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Austin Wells C NYY | 15% | 19% | 4% |
| Xavier Edwards SS MIA | 14% | 27% | 13% |
| Deyvison De Los Santos 3B ARI | 12% | 13% | 1% |
| Juan Yepez 1B WAS | 11% | 32% | 21% |
| Gavin Lux 2B LAD | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Jose Iglesias 2B NYM | 10% | 19% | 9% |
| Connor Norby 2B BAL | 9% | 16% | 7% |
| Justyn-Henry Malloy DH DET | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Austin Hays LF PHI | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Tyler Locklear 1B SEA | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Hunter Renfroe RF KC | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Ernie Clement 3B TOR | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Otto Lopez 2B MIA | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| Ignacio (Nacho) Alvarez 3B ATL | 2% | 15% | 13% |
| Victor Robles RF SEA | 2% | 12% | 10% |
| Tyler Fitzgerald SS SF | 1% | 42% | 41% |
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Phillips: I usually do 99% of this article on Saturday and then touch it up on Sunday. When I first collected the rostership rate, it was at 18% as seen below. Then Phillips threw a complete game shutout and the rate jumped to 25%. The .215 BABIP and 95% LOB% will regress while bringing his 1.80 ERA up to his ERA estimators which are in the 3.50 range. The key to his turnaround is the lack of walks 0.7 BB/9 after struggling with them for years.
Luis L. Ortiz: In 29 IP as a starter, Ortiz has been good with a 1.52 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 7.0 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9. Solid arm.
Andre Pallante: Again, the strikeout (6.9 K/9) and walks (3.3 BB/9) aren’t ideal, but the 61% GB% covers up those flaws.
Yariel Rodríguez: Before July 1st, he was struggling with walks (6.1 BB/9, 49.7% Zone%, 4.94 xFIP) but has cut his walk rate in half so far in July (3.2 BB/9, 51.2% Zone%, 3.51 xFIP). So does a person believe the entire body of work, or just the last four starts? Each manager should come up with their own risk tolerance.
Simeon Woods Richardson: While likely not 3.27 ERA good, the 23-year-old has been a solid arm this season who has gotten better as the season has gone on.
Andrew Heaney: With the walks under control (2.6 BB/9), he is a solid 4.00 ERA arm.
Cooper Criswell: He’s been solid this season with a 4.02 ERA (3.89 xFIP), 1.23 WHIP, 52% GB%, and 7.5 K/9. Right now, he keeps getting sent to AAA as dictated by the roster. He might get demoted with the signing of James Paxton.
Hayden Birdsong: Birdsong has some interesting skills but he might be back in the minors until an injury happens. The Giants are already moving Jordan Hicks to the bullpen to make room for Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb. Huge upside and downside.
River Ryan: While he didn’t allow any earned runs in his debut, he walked more batters than he struck out. The STUPH models loved his cutter while the rest of his pitches were middling. The lack of control brought the grades on the other pitches. His Sunday start will go a long way to determine if he remains on the roster and his fantasy worthy.
Ryne Nelson: The lack of a second pitch caught up with him in his last start when he allowed 4 HR in 6 IP with just 2 K. He’s throwing his four-seamer over 50% of the time with an 8.9% SwStr%. He has to lean into it because none of his four secondaries have a SwStr% over 10%. The struggles can be seen with a 4.07 xFIP the first time through the order (not a great number to start with). It increases to 4.39 xFIP the second time and 5.11 xFIP the third time.
Alec Marsh: Managers are seeking Marsh’s two-step next week against the White Sox and Tigers. His ERA estimators are in the low-4.00’s but his 4.75 ERA is unsightly. Most of the damage has come since June 1st (6.36 ERA, 1.7 HR/9, .323 BABIP). Marsh is a decent gamble for teams needing Wins.
Mitch Spence: Follows a trend of an available pitcher with ERA estimators around 4.00 but an ERA closer to 5.00 (4.67 ERA). A solid boring profile with a 7.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 47% GB%. I have him lower than the rest because he’s struggled with walks (4.4 BB/9) in July.
Randy Vásquez: I feel the demand is based on the schedule. He started with a two-start week (at WSH, at BAL) and then will get Colorado at home next week. The first start was great with 0 ER over 6 IP. He needs a soft schedule to be fantasy-relevant with a 4.17 ERA (4.55 xFIP), 1.48 WHIP, and just a 5.7 K/9.
Kyle Freeland: I thought he might have been streamable this week with two road matchups. I hope no one followed my advice since he allowed 6 ER over 4 IP with 2 HR, 8 K, and 1 BB. The strikeout and walk numbers are fine but he gets hit around. Remains a streamer in the deepest of leagues.
David Peterson: The 3.14 ERA (85% LOB%) will make him look good on the surface, but that’s it. A 1.48 WHIP is unrosterable (4.3 BB/9) especially when there aren’t many strikeouts (6.7 K/9). His 6.1 K%-BB% ranks 149th of 153 for starters with a least 40 IP.
Chayce McDermott: He’s back in the minors after a horrible debut (3 ER, 1 HR, 3 K, and 2 BB in 4 IP). He’s likely not ready for the majors until he can get his walks under control (5.3 BB/9 in AAA).
Injury Returnees
Alex Cobb: Expected to join the rotation next week. His sinker sat at 93.5 mph in his rehab start, about 1 mph higher than his career average.
Tyler Mahle: He was up to 4 IP in his last rehab appearance. While his fastball velocity is down at 91.7 mph (career average at 93.3 mph), he has a 2.02 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 in five appearances.
Drew Rasmussen: He has only thrown twice in his rehab, each one inning. Rumor is that he will come back as a reliever. In AAA, his fastball sat at 97.8, about 1 mph higher than his career average.
Starting Pitcher Prospect
Jackson Jobe: In AA, the 21-year-old has a 1.41 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9 in 38 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP MIN | 40% | 49% | 9% |
| Andrew Heaney SP TEX | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Alec Marsh SP KC | 33% | 35% | 2% |
| David Peterson SP NYM | 32% | 36% | 4% |
| Jackson Jobe P DET | 30% | 34% | 4% |
| Yariel Rodriguez SP TOR | 25% | 28% | 3% |
| Luis Ortiz RP PIT | 24% | 39% | 15% |
| River Ryan P LAD | 22% | 29% | 7% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 15% | 21% | 6% |
| Andre Pallante RP STL | 13% | 19% | 6% |
| Hayden Birdsong SP SF | 12% | 29% | 17% |
| Tyler Phillips RP PHI | 11% | 18% | 7% |
| Kyle Freeland SP COL | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Alex Cobb SP SF | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Tyler Mahle SP TEX | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Drew Rasmussen SP TB | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Mitch Spence RP OAK | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Chayce McDermott SP BAL | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Randy Vasquez SP SD | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Cooper Criswell SP BOS | 4% | 7% | 3% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Chad Green: Good reliever who is closer.
Daniel Hudson: Good reliever who has some share of a closer’s role.
Ben Joyce: Decent reliever who is likely now the closer.
Victor Vodnik: OK reliever who is the closer.
Lucas Erceg: Good reliever who will be the closer for a couple of weeks.
Andrew Nardi: Good reliever who is just a trade or two away from closing.
Shelby Miller: Below-average reliever who seems to be sharing the closer duties.
Colin Poche: Average reliever who is a step or two from closing.
Cade Smith: Great reliever who is a step or two from closing.
A.J. Puk: Good reliever who is a step or two from closing.
Tyler Holton: OK reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Dylan Floro: Below-average reliever who is just a trade or two away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hudson RP LAD | 30% | 47% | 17% |
| Chad Green RP TOR | 25% | 26% | 1% |
| A.J. Puk RP ARI | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Cade Smith RP CLE | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Ben Joyce RP LAA | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Lucas Erceg RP OAK | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Shelby Miller RP DET | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Colin Poche RP TB | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Tyler Holton RP DET | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Andrew Nardi RP MIA | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Victor Vodnik RP COL | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Dylan Floro RP WAS | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Regarding Adell, he has three stolen bases since the break. Awful batting and OB averages, but the power speed combo is what draws people in for deeper formats.