FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 16)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Rece Hinds: On fire. As I write this on Saturday evening, Hinds has 4 HR (edit: now at 5) and a 1.895 OPS in 22 PA. He has a .850 ISO. While he struggled with strikeouts in AAA (38% K/9), they are down at 27% in the majors. I have no idea how long he can keep it up but this will be the last chance to roster him this season without an epic collapse.

Harrison Bader: With Bader starting every game, he’s a must roster with 8 HR, 13 SB, and a .278 AVG.

Matt Wallner: Since his last big-league promotion, he has five straight starts including one against a lefty. During this stretch, he’s hitting .500/.611/1.000 with his strikeout rate dropping from 51% to 22%. The deal is that he’s still struggling making contact this season. In 2022 and 2023 he had a 62% Contact% and 67% Contact%. While hit dropped to 45% Contact% in the first stint, it is only up to 60% this time. While he has struggled against non-fastballs in previous seasons, he couldn’t even hit fastballs early in the season. Chance for elite power but might be a poor man’s Joey Gallo.

Spencer Horwitz: Elite contact hitter (.319/.425/.489) with some power (4 HR).

Colt Keith: An up-and-down season for the 22-year-old. Currently in an up with 4 HR in July.

Joshua Palacios: In 27 PA, he is hitting .227/.370/.500 (.167 BABIP) with 2 HR. Last FAAB period, I tried to roster him based on his Steamer600 comps. The previous week, managers were busting the bank to add Noelvi Marte. According to these projections, the pair’s talent is almost identical.

Lars Nootbaar: Off the IL but hit 5 HR and 3 SB in 164 PA before getting hurt.

Nolan Schanuel: Playing and somewhat productive (.240/.325/.351).

Leody Taveras: Taveras is doing what he’s always done. Steal bases (11 SB) and hitting for some power (6 HR) while being a batting average sink (.234 AVG).

Max Schuemann: Starts while hitting .245/.339/.351 with 5 HR and 9 SB in 245 PA. Could be better, could be a whole lot worse.

Xavier Edwards: Locked in as Miami’s shortstop. Should be a decent source of batting average and stolen bases. Might not hit one out-of-the-park home run.

Angel Martínez: The 22-year-old on-base machine (17% BB%, .391 OBP) has started nine straight games while batting second. While he can get on base, he doesn’t have much power or speed. Over a full season, he might be lucky to get to double-digit home runs or steals.

Jon Singleton: He is no longer platooning at first base while hitting a pedestrian .241/.333/.361 with 7 HR in 249 PA on the season.

Eugenio Suárez: Hot in July hitting .306/.419/.667 with 3 HR in 43 PA.

Anthony Rendon: He’s back … for now. Leading off and hitting .211/.318/.316 since returning.

Lenyn Sosa: Acceptable bench bat (.240/.270/.357) with second and third base qualifications.

Juan Yepez: He is now the everyday first baseman for the Nationals while hitting .333/.412/.500 (.417 BABIP) so far this season. He could move up if anyone thinks there is more power in his profile.

Rowdy Tellez: With only three righties on the schedule this week, it’s not the time to start Tellez. He’s a decent streamer if he gets five starts against righties in a set week.

Lawrence Butler: Strong-side platoon bat with a 1.072 OPS in July (.353 BABIP) while his strikeout rate is still over 30%.

Miguel Vargas: While hitting (.770 OPS), he’s still on the short side of an outfield platoon.

Dane Myers: Myers has started six times in the last 13 games. He won’t have the counting stats to be relevant at this level.

Parker Meadows: On the IL, probably an ignore for now except in leagues with unlimited IL slots.

Catchers

Ben Rice: He should be 100% rostered at this point. He’s easily one of the top-10 catcher-qualified hitters.

Hitting Prospects

Jacob Wilson윌슨: Across three minor league levels, the 23-year-old is hitting .446/.482/.703 with 7 HR and 2 SB in 189 PA.

Starting Pitchers

Luis L. Ortiz: First off, Ortiz might not be in the rotation. The Pirates now have six “healthy” starts going into the break and Ortiz was the last guy added. With that caveat, I think he’s a must-roster in all formats for the chance he sticks. Here is my take from this week’s Big Kid Adds.

Luis L. Ortiz (7): Ortiz has mainly thrown out of the bullpen but as a starter, he has 0.75 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9 in 12 IP. His 28.6% K%-BB% would rank second among qualified starters behind Garrett Crochet.

He’s changed his pitch mix by cutting the usage of both sinker and four-seamer by 3% points and dropping his changeup (5% SwStr%). At the same time, he added a cutter (7% SwStr%). His bread-and-butter pitch is his slider (15% SwStr%).

While the pitch mix changes can’t be ignored, the biggest change is that he’s throwing strikes. His walk rate has dropped from 5.0 BB/9 last season to 2.7 BB/9 this season with his Zone% increasing from 47.5% to 52.4%.

He’s an add where possible to see if he can keep the walks down like Jake Irvin did.

Andre Pallante He has improved over the season with his monthly K%-BB% going from 2.0% to 4.5% to 11.2% to 18.4%. While he isn’t a standout in strikeouts (7.2 K/9) or walks (3.3 BB/9), his near 60% GB% helps hide his flaws.

Jose Quintana: Over his last five starts, he has a 0.89 ERA (3.74 xFIP), 8.0 K/9, and 0.89 WHIP. I’m sort of buying into him being a 4.00 ERA talent since he’s throwing his curve (11% SwStr%) more and seeing a velocity uptick.

Andrew Heaney: I know a three home run blowup is coming but with his walk down at 2.5 BB/9, he’s a streamer in all leagues and a bench streamer in deeper leagues.

Quinn Priester: Priester returned from the IL, and dominated the Brewers going 6 IP with 8 K and just 2 ER. Before going on the IL, he struggled with home runs 2.0 HR/9 even though he had a 60% GB%. In his return, all his pitches were up about 1 mph. Besides the velo bump, there weren’t any changes (possibly more spin on curve) but he has the parts for a decent starter with an elite sinker (64% GB%, 6% SwStr%) and a slider and curve with a 14% SwStr% or higher. Bench-and-monitor.

Keider Montero: In four games (20 IP), Montero has been home run prone (1.7 K/9, 4.95 FIP), but his 14.9% K%-BB% is comparable to Reese Olson, Erick Fedde 페디, Charlie Morton, and Matt Waldron. Montero has a 95.5 mph fastball with his slider and curve posting an 18% SwStr% or better. The pitches, when paired with a 2.5 BB/9, put him at the top of this week’s add list. They might not keep going but this might be the last week to find out. I wrote the following before his blowup on Saturday (5 ER, 4 K, and 4 BB in 5 IP). Seven of his 10 walks this season have been in two of the five starts. In this one, he only had a 46% Zone% (52% on the season). It seemed like he didn’t trust his stuff against the Dodgers. I had him at the top spot but dropped him a bit.

Yariel Rodríguez: His 5.0 BB/9 is a WHIP killer in roto leagues even with everything else seeming OK. Also, he’s having issues keeping his velocity up from start to start.

Chris Paddack: Just off the IL and is in a nice two-start week (at CWS, at SF). I’m not sure he’s close to a must-roster. A 4.25 ERA talent.

Justin Wrobleski: It’s never a good sign when both your HR/9 and BB/9 sit at 3.6 over 10 IP (two starts). In the minors this season, he posted a 3.23 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 1.08 WHIP in 78 IP. Even with the horrible results, I think Wrobleski has more upside than Diaz because Wrobleski has not struggled with walks as much.

Yilber Diaz: A high-strikeout, high-walk arm through the minors. He has taken a complete 180 in the majors over two major league starts with a 5.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Our STUPH models are not a fan of his arsenal with the best take is TheBot thinking his slider is average. I could see lots of demand for him this weekend with the 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP (projections and ERA estimators in the mid-4.00’s) Feel free to take a chance on him because of the lack of other options, but manage expectations.

Jake Bloss: In the minors this season, he has an 8.6 K/9, 0.79 WHIP, and 1.64 ERA in 66 IP. Over the 23-year-old’s two major league starts, he has yet to see a lineup for a third time even though he throws four different pitches. In the majors, his curve has been elite with a 26% SwStr% while his slider is just at 9% SwStr% even though he through his slider almost twice as much. I don’t have a feel for his talent level. Monitor for now.

Kyle Freeland: I try to stay away from Rockie starters but Freeland’s monthly xFIP has dropped from 5.71 to 4.74 to 2.63. He’s improved by throwing more strikes (4.6 BB/9 to 2.1 to 1.3) and leaning into this curveball (22% SwStr%). I guess there might be three to four starts this season when he can be streamed on the road.

Joey Estes: In a two-start week (at BOS, at PHI) and was lit up for 8 ER in 1.2 IP in the first one. Everything points to him being a solid mid-4.00’s ERA talent. This was not the week to stream him considering the opponents.

Albert Suárez 수아레즈: Allows a ton of flyballs (33% GB%) but only has a 0.5 HR/9. Because of the lack of home runs, he has a 2.82 ERA with ERA estimators and projections in the high 4.00’s.

Drew Thorpe: He has a 3.58 ERA, his ERA estimators are closer to 5.00. The estimators are being pushed up by a low 5.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. Nothing he has done points to him being a league-average starter.

Chris Flexen 플렉센: Some people must love their two steps (MIN and PIT). Flexen barely strikes anyone out and allows too many walks and home runs to be rostered. A low-5.00’s ERA talent.

Relievers – Save-based ranks

Note: Reliever trade season has started with the Royals acquiring Hunter Harvey. I despise the rumor mill but it can’t be ignored. Also, I’m horrible at guessing what’s going to happen so here are two sources on some players who may be on the move.

Jeff Hoffman: Good reliever who seems to be the primary closer.

Yimi García: Good reliever who will be the closer once off the IL.

Jalen Beeks: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Hunter Harvey: Good reliever who was just traded to the Royals and might end up closing. Here is a quote from the team on the situation:

“He adds great depth,” Picollo said. “It’s not something where we’re going to say, ‘He’s our closer,’ starting tomorrow. That’s not the case. Our goal all along was to have a deeper bullpen. [James McArthur] has done a great job in the ninth inning here over the last few weeks, and we’re happy with what he’s doing. … The depth was the focus for us and having more options at the back end of the game.”

A.J. Puk: OK reliever who might be the closer if Tanner Scott gets traded.

Chad Green: Good reliever who is the closer until Garcia comes off the IL.

Alex Vesia: Good reliever who is getting Saves when the lineup is heavy lefties.

Hunter Gaddis: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Ryan Walker: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Hunter Bigge: Just promoted by the Cubs and hasn’t been used in a high-leverage situation yet.