FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 15)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Ramón Laureano: Been great in 230 PA (10 HR, 4 SB, .279 AVG).
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: Once healthy the second time, he has started in four of five games with a home run and a stolen base so far. Rank might be too high but he has decent upside.
Tyler Freeman: Continues to hit for average (.336 AVG) and steal bases (12 SB).
Caleb Durbin: Solid contributor (.261 AVG, 4 HR, 8 SB).
Lenyn Sosa: Solid bench replacement who has 9 HR in 79 games. Boring but useful.
Colson Montgomery: He got the strikeouts under control (33% K% in AAA, 14% in the majors), but his power has tanked. He doesn’t have a Barrel yet. In AAA, he had an 88.8 mph avgEV. It’s 78.8 mph in the majors, ranking 591st of the 600 batters with at least one batted ball. We’ll see if the Luis Arraez profile works for him.
Brice Matthews: I’m not sure how much he’ll play (2B in debut) and make contact (30% K% in AAA, 5 K in 7 PA in the majors). Add, hold for a week, and see if he continues to struggle.
Harrison Bader: With the whole team “healthy”, Bader starts every three out of four games. When he plays, he’s been solid with 11 HR and 8 SB.
Mickey Moniak: Strong-side platoon bat with 13 HR in 244 PA.
Andrew Vaughn: With Rhys Hoskins on the IL, Vaughn (1.500 OPS with MIL) and Jake Bauers split time at first base.
Masataka Yoshida: DH-only and no idea how much he’ll play. And could be unproductive. Add and bench.
Max Muncy (ATH): There could still be playing time issues in West Sacramento once Wilson gets healthy. Andujar is now at third and Muncy (.224/.267/.410) could head to the bench.
Colt Keith: Remains a strong-side platoon bat while hitting for some power (8 HR).
Romy Gonzalez: He’s a short-side first base platoon bat. Ignore unless there are several lefties on the schedule.
Catchers
Carlos Narváez: Not a drag while posting a .272 AVG with 8 HR.
Sean Murphy: Starting about half the time with 7 HR since June 28th.
Victor Caratini: Can’t argue with 10 HR and a .256 AVG.
Danny Jansen: While a huge batting average drag (.210 AVG), he’s been on fire in July (.333/.417/.619).
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Narvaez C BOS | 38% | 40% | 2% |
| Tyler Freeman RF COL | 32% | 40% | 8% |
| Colt Keith DH DET | 31% | 41% | 10% |
| Sean Murphy C ATL | 31% | 34% | 3% |
| Caleb Durbin 3B MIL | 30% | 34% | 4% |
| Ha-seong Kim SS TB | 20% | 24% | 4% |
| Colson Montgomery SS CHW | 17% | 21% | 4% |
| Ramon Laureano RF BAL | 15% | 16% | 1% |
| Mickey Moniak RF COL | 13% | 20% | 7% |
| Harrison Bader LF MIN | 12% | 13% | 1% |
| Masataka Yoshida DH BOS | 10% | 13% | 3% |
| Victor Caratini C HOU | 8% | 15% | 7% |
| Andrew Vaughn 1B MIL | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Max Muncy 3B ATH | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Danny Jansen C TB | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Brice Matthews SS HOU | 5% | 17% | 12% |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B CHW | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Romy Gonzalez 1B BOS | 4% | 18% | 14% |
Starters
Brandon Walter: I’m not sure how much more Walter needs to do to be added (3.98 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.01 WHIP). He’s walked a total of two batters in 40 IP. Lance McCullers Jr. has walked 26 batters in 41 IP, and he’s 45% rostered. I’m not sure of Walter’s downside.
Cam Schlittler: A mixed start in his debut. On the good, it was 7 K in 5 IP, leading to 3 ER. On the bad, allowed 2 HR and 2 BB. He got most of his strikes looking (8% SwStr%, 20% CalledStr%, league values: 11%, 16%). A 31% Ball% points to 1.8 BB/9. The STUPH models loved him. It seems like a bunch of facts, but it’s just one start against the Mariners.
Janson Junk: Here are several facts to create a narrative with. His fastball dropped ~2 mph in his last start. He doesn’t walk anyone (4 BB in 50 IP). As a starter, his strikeout rate is under 7.0 K/9. He’s slider first, throwing it 45% of the time while throwing his fastballs only 38% of the time. I’m not sure he has another gear, but this gear seems to be working.
Joe Boyle: Sorry for those who used my take on Boyle last week, where I said he was headed to the bullpen. He did, but he’s going to piggyback Drew Rasmussen starts. Since Boyle is following, he has a solid chance for a Win to go with a good number of strikeouts. Boyle’s Achilles’ heel could be walks. He had a 3.8 BB/9 in AAA, which is about half of his previous minor league seasons (7.7 BB/9 in ’24, 7.1 BB/9 in ’23, 7.5 BB/9 in ’22) and 5.8 BB/9 in 77 major league innings. In his last appearance, he walked more (2) than he struck out (1).
Richard Fitts: Over his last three starts (COL, CIN, @LAA), he has a 3.55 ERA (2.80 xFIP), 9.2 K/9, and 1.11 WHIP. During that span, he averaged 4 IP or 71 pitches per start. He has increased his fastball velocity from 95.1 mph to 96.8 mph, with his strikeout rate jumping from 16.5% to 25.0%. He needs to be added in all leagues, but I have some hesitancy because he beat up on three weak opponents with his best start against Colorado.
Eric Lauer 라우어: The STUPH models are not a fan (4.50 ERA talent), but results and projections point to 3.50 to 4.00 ERA talent. When regression comes, it’ll be in the form of home runs. A 1.5 HR/9 would be the norm from a 32% GB%, not a 1.0 HR/9.
Slade Cecconi: Rounding into a solid arm. Since the beginning of June, he has a 2.72 ERA (3.90 xFIP), 8.9 K/9, and 1.21 WHIP. His velocity continues to decline. His last two starts are the first ones where he averaged under 94 mph.
Trevor Rogers: To believe Rogers is better than 4.00 ERA pitcher (ERA estimators, projections, and STUPH models are all around 4.00), the .211 BABIP and 0.3 HR/9 must continue. The problem is that he’s not suppressing hard contact. His 53.2% HardHit% ranks second to last (Nick Abel at 54.5%) among 193 starters (min 20 IP). I’ll value him as a 4.00 ERA talent while enjoying this hot streak.
Logan Allen로건: Here’s his K-BB% by month:
Month: K%-BB%
April: 4%
May: 7%
June: 11%
July: 15%
The gains are from not walking as many batters. He had a 4.6 BB/9 in April and May. A 2.9 BB/9 since then. The problem is that the improvements now have him as a 4.00 ERA talent.
Brandon Young: I remember preseason projections loved Young, but he struggled with 9 BB in 9 IP in his first two MLB appearances. Over his last three starts, he has a 6.08 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 8.1 K/9, and 1.43 WHIP (.350 BABIP, 2.0 BB/9). As for changes, he dropped his cutter and threw his changeup and splitter (two distinct pitches) more. The short-timeframe table loves him. Add but start only in emergencies.
Andre Pallante: Even with a 63% GB%, home runs (1.3 HR/9, 4.61 FIP) lead to his struggles (1.30 WHIP, 4.49 ERA). I use him as a bench streamer.
Adrian Houser: A low-4.00 ERA streaming talent.
Ryan Gusto: First, it’s tough to know if Gusto is or isn’t in the Astros’ rotation. Second, it’s tough to pin down his talent level due to his inconsistency. I think he’s trying to find himself. He’s thrown six different pitches this season between 46% and 9%. He’s dominated the Dodgers and got lit up by the Royals. Hopefully, he can get into a groove at some point.
JP Sears: Of the 83 starters (min 90 IP), Sears’s groundball ranks 81st. And he has allowed an expected number of home runs (1.8 HR/9). Over his last four starts (2.49 ERA), the lack of groundballs remains (26% GB%), but he has just a 0.4 HR/9. I’m going to try to stay away as much as possible.
Andrew Heaney: In a two-start week (at KC, at MIN). In his first start, he only lasted 3 IP with 4 ER and just 2 K. He’s a mid-4.00’s ERA talent with a 90 mph fastball. He doesn’t even feel like a streamer.
Colin Rea: The 81% LOB% won’t last (career 73% LOB%), and his 3.91 ERA will jump up closer to the mid to high-4.00 ERA talent where the pitching trifecta (projections, ERA estimators, STUPH) values him.
Joey Cantillo: Since his last recall, Cantillo has a 3.68 ERA (3.28 xFIP), 14.7 K/9, and 7.4 BB/9. While his ERA is reasonable, his 1.77 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 7.11 ERA. He’s always struggled with walks, so I don’t expect any change. Unstartable in roto leagues but streamable in point leagues.
Simeon Woods Richardson: A two-start week had him on radars, and the first start went great (5 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, and 3 BB). I can’t buy in, especially with the combination of high walks (3.6 BB/9) and home runs (1.2 HR/9). Solid 4.50 to 5.00 ERA talent.
Sean Burke: Burke will go on a nice run (1.10 ERA going in his previous three starts) and then has a clunker (6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, and 3 HR in 5 IP). Unlike some pitchers who get BABIP to death when they blow up, Burke implodes in all facets and drags a fantasy team down. Monitor from afar.
Mike Burrows: Coming into his matchup against the Mariners on Saturday, he had a 3.63 ERA. After allowing 6 ER in 1.1 IP, it’s now a 4.83 ERA. I’m never a fan of a changeup-only pitcher. If it’s not working, there is nothing to fall back on. With a ton of walks in his last two games (7 BB in 6 IP), I want to see him throw a couple of games first before jumping back in.
Chris Flexen 플렉센: The long reliever made his first start of the season, and it didn’t go well (3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, and 3 H in 4 IP). Ignore.
Rehabbing Starters
Nestor Cortes: Beginning his minor league rehab. Watch to see if he can keep the walks down as he progresses.
Kyle Bradish: Getting close to a minor league rehab assignment after having Tommy John surgery last season.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante SP STL | 40% | 44% | 4% |
| Trevor Rogers SP BAL | 39% | 54% | 15% |
| Nestor Cortes SP MIL | 39% | 41% | 2% |
| Andrew Heaney SP PIT | 35% | 40% | 5% |
| Eric Lauer SP TOR | 32% | 36% | 4% |
| Joe Boyle SP TB | 30% | 48% | 18% |
| JP Sears SP ATH | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Adrian Houser SP CHW | 25% | 43% | 18% |
| Slade Cecconi SP CLE | 25% | 28% | 3% |
| Colin Rea SP CHC | 24% | 29% | 5% |
| Brandon Walter SP HOU | 23% | 24% | 1% |
| Sean Burke SP CHW | 18% | 21% | 3% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP MIN | 14% | 26% | 12% |
| Cameron Schlittler SP NYY | 13% | 51% | 38% |
| Kyle Bradish SP BAL | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| Ryan Gusto SP HOU | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Logan Taylor Allen SP CLE | 11% | 16% | 5% |
| Richard Fitts SP BOS | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Michael Burrows SP PIT | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Janson Junk RP MIA | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| Joey Cantillo RP CLE | 5% | 16% | 11% |
| Chris Flexen RP CHC | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Braydon Fisher RP TOR | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Brandon Young SP BAL | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Name | IP | BotERA | Pitching+ERA | SwStr% ERA | FBv ERA | SIERA | xFIP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Fitts | 8.2 | 3.46 | 3.49 | 3.44 | 3.65 | 3.06 | 2.85 | 3.32 |
| Cam Schlittler | 5.1 | 3.66 | 4.10 | 4.18 | 3.47 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 3.70 |
| Brandon Young | 9.1 | 3.79 | 4.01 | 3.97 | 4.06 | 3.30 | 3.17 | 3.72 |
| Brandon Walter | 11.0 | 4.26 | 4.00 | 3.65 | 4.35 | 3.26 | 3.56 | 3.85 |
| Janson Junk | 12.0 | 3.69 | 3.59 | 4.71 | 4.14 | 3.55 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Andrew Heaney | 9.2 | 3.24 | 3.43 | 4.98 | 4.63 | 3.54 | 3.53 | 3.89 |
| Adrian Houser | 22.0 | 3.27 | 4.13 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 4.36 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Trevor Rogers | 12.0 | 4.05 | 4.69 | 3.37 | 4.19 | 4.10 | 3.86 | 4.04 |
| Joey Cantillo | 7.1 | 4.46 | 4.58 | 3.61 | 4.35 | 4.01 | 3.28 | 4.05 |
| Eric Lauer | 14.1 | 4.47 | 4.70 | 4.33 | 4.40 | 3.14 | 3.41 | 4.07 |
| Slade Cecconi | 17.2 | 4.13 | 4.50 | 4.76 | 4.05 | 3.68 | 3.63 | 4.13 |
| Joe Boyle | 9.0 | 4.89 | 4.59 | 4.54 | 3.39 | 3.74 | 4.29 | 4.24 |
| JP Sears | 16.2 | 3.82 | 4.15 | 4.88 | 4.25 | 4.07 | 4.29 | 4.24 |
| Mike Burrows | 9.1 | 5.03 | 5.20 | 3.86 | 3.80 | 4.03 | 3.92 | 4.31 |
| Logan Allen | 18.0 | 4.59 | 4.40 | 4.99 | 4.53 | 3.80 | 3.54 | 4.31 |
| Ryan Gusto | 14.1 | 3.68 | 4.07 | 4.24 | 3.98 | 4.86 | 5.15 | 4.33 |
| Colin Rea | 18.2 | 4.03 | 3.95 | 4.87 | 4.04 | 4.90 | 4.86 | 4.44 |
| Andre Pallante | 13.0 | 4.65 | 3.86 | 5.33 | 3.95 | 4.75 | 4.42 | 4.49 |
| Sean Burke | 11.0 | 4.31 | 4.47 | 5.23 | 3.94 | 4.98 | 5.47 | 4.73 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | 10.0 | 4.46 | 4.92 | 4.32 | 4.04 | 6.03 | 6.00 | 4.96 |
| Chris Flexen | 8.2 | 5.88 | 5.96 | 4.23 | 4.16 | 5.66 | 5.71 | 5.27 |
Relievers: Saves-bases rankings
Ronny Henriquez: Great reliever who is the closer.
Grant Taylor: Good reliever who appears to be the closer.
Kevin Ginkel: Average reliever who is the closer or is sharing the role.
Matt Strahm: Good reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Randy Rodríguez: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Bryan Abreu: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Adrian Morejon: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Jordan Hicks: Average reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Braydon Fisher: Great reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante SP STL | 40% | 44% | 4% |
| Trevor Rogers SP BAL | 39% | 54% | 15% |
| Nestor Cortes SP MIL | 39% | 41% | 2% |
| Andrew Heaney SP PIT | 35% | 40% | 5% |
| Eric Lauer SP TOR | 32% | 36% | 4% |
| Joe Boyle SP TB | 30% | 48% | 18% |
| JP Sears SP ATH | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Adrian Houser SP CHW | 25% | 43% | 18% |
| Slade Cecconi SP CLE | 25% | 28% | 3% |
| Colin Rea SP CHC | 24% | 29% | 5% |
| Brandon Walter SP HOU | 23% | 24% | 1% |
| Sean Burke SP CHW | 18% | 21% | 3% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP MIN | 14% | 26% | 12% |
| Cameron Schlittler SP NYY | 13% | 51% | 38% |
| Kyle Bradish SP BAL | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| Ryan Gusto SP HOU | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Logan Taylor Allen SP CLE | 11% | 16% | 5% |
| Richard Fitts SP BOS | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Michael Burrows SP PIT | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Janson Junk RP MIA | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| Joey Cantillo RP CLE | 5% | 16% | 11% |
| Chris Flexen RP CHC | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Braydon Fisher RP TOR | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Brandon Young SP BAL | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.