FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 12)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Zach Neto: Solid bat with 8 HR, 9 SB, and .250 AVG.
David Hamilton: As long as he keeps starting (6 straight) and providing some power (4 HR) and batting average (.281 AVG) on top of the 14 steals, he’s a must roster.
Charlie Blackmon: Seven games in Colorado next week. Hitting .315/.378/.573 at home this season.
Jorge Mateo: Since coming off the IL, he’s starting and a nice source of speed and power.
Blake Perkins: Steady contributor with 5 HR, 9 SB, and .254 AVG.
Andrew Vaughn: On fire in June (.333/.362/.644) and has lowered his strikeout rate each month (28% to 20% to 19%).
Carlos Santana: Eight starts in the last 10 games while hitting .300/.349/.525 in June.
Otto Lopez: With Tim Anderson returning, Lopez has moved back to second base while hitting .277/.303/.393 with 3 HR and 5 SB.
Kevin Pillar: While not repeating his May production (1.147 OPS), he’s still productive in June (.779 OPS). He’s taken huge chunks out of his strikeout rate each month (25% to 16% to 8%).
Paul DeJong: Continues to hit dingers with 13 HR but a 32% K% (.237 AVG).
Jake McCarthy: Seven starts in the last seven games and has been productive (.744 OPS, 3 HR, 9 SB). I have him ranked higher than the other part-timers based on the stolen bases.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Starting all the time with a .685 OPS with 4 HR and 3 SB. If he starts to struggle, the playing time could dry up.
Spencer Horwitz: Hitting .368/.455/.421 in 22 MLB PA. Starting against righties with six on the schedule next week.
Justyn-Henry Malloy: Productive so far (.864 OPS, 2 HR) but a 36% K% will drag down his batting average.
Gavin Sheets: Starting against lefties while only providing power (7 HR).
Joc Pederson: He is scheduled to only face three righties next week. Drop/bench.
Jose Miranda: While hitting (.273/.314/.455), the return of Royce Lewis and Santana heating up, Miranda has only started in two of the last five games.
Tyler Soderstrom (NON-CATCHER RANKING): Starting at first base every game while hitting .224/.337/.421 with 4 HR.
Nick Senzel: Eight starts in the last 10 games. Middling power (6 HR) with just a .232 AVG.
Wilmer Flores: A nice run at first base (eight starts in nine games) but LaMonte Wade Jr. is about to return from the IL so the playing time could dry up. Flores is struggling on the season with a .625 OPS.
Tyler Locklear: In 21 PA since being promoted, he hasn’t walked and has a 38% K%. In the minors, he normally posted a double-digit walk rate and mid-20’s strikeout rate so some regression could be coming. He might not have his job long with Ty France about to return from the IL.
Adael Amador: He was posting a .666 OPS in AA when he got promoted to the bigs. So far, he’s posting a .333 OPS. He seems over matched
Jordan Lawlar: Destroying AAA with .975 OPS but struggling with strikeouts. And now hurt. .
Catchers
Jose Trevino: Respectable .271/.319/.434 with 7 HR.
Tyler Soderstrom (CATCHER-ONLY RANKING): Starting at first base every game while hitting .224/.337/.421 with 4 HR.
Mitch Garver: Insane batting average drain (.176 AVG, 29% K%, .217 BABIP) with a few homers (8).
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson DH ARI | 33% | 36% | 3% |
| Mitch Garver DH SEA | 31% | 36% | 5% |
| Zachary Neto SS LAA | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Jordan Lawlar SS ARI | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Andrew Vaughn 1B CHW | 27% | 39% | 12% |
| Kevin Pillar CF LAA | 27% | 28% | 1% |
| Charlie Blackmon RF COL | 20% | 26% | 6% |
| Jorge Mateo 2B BAL | 19% | 20% | 1% |
| Jose Miranda 3B MIN | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| David Hamilton SS BOS | 15% | 37% | 22% |
| Adael Amador 2B COL | 14% | 22% | 8% |
| Blake Perkins CF MIL | 14% | 20% | 6% |
| Carlos Santana 1B MIN | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3B TOR | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| Gavin Sheets RF CHW | 11% | 26% | 15% |
| Wilmer Flores 1B SF | 11% | 13% | 2% |
| Paul DeJong SS CHW | 9% | 22% | 13% |
| Tyler Soderstrom 1B OAK | 9% | 17% | 8% |
| Justyn-Henry Malloy 3B DET | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| Jake McCarthy RF ARI | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| Nick Senzel 3B WAS | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Jose Trevino C NYY | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Otto Lopez SS MIA | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Tyler Locklear 1B SEA | 4% | 14% | 10% |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B TOR | 3% | 9% | 6% |
Starters
Note: With Herz, Thorpe, and Povich I think their roster rate will jump and this will be the time to add. The rest of the arms, besides Irvin, won’t see much demand and are just streaming options.
Jake Irvin: His walk rate has shown no signs of increasing (Apr: 1.9 BB/9, May: 1.2, Jun: 2.0 BB/9) to previous levels (4.0 BB/9 in ’23). Roster in all formats.
DJ Herz: I must mention Herz after getting 13 K in 6 IP on Saturday. While he has been able to strikeout batters going through the minors, walks have been an issue (7.3 BB/9 in AAA, 5.4 BB/9 in MLB) before this elite start. I get an Arrighetti feel with Herz but the start can’t be ignored. Add now and see what happens.
Jonathan Cannon: A .348 BABIP has him with 4.56 ERA (3.17 xFIP) and 1.35 WHIP. In his two June starts, he has a 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9. A 93-mph sinker (62% GB%) and four secondaries whose swinging-strike rate range from 13% to 17%. I’m more interested in him than Thorpe.
Drew Thorpe: I wish he hadn’t been traded to the White Sox. Solid debut (5 IP, 4 K, 2 BB, 1 ER). I’ll be nice and call his 91-mph fastball garbage but his change (16% SwStr%) and slider (13% SwStr%) generate a decent amount of swing-and-miss.
Cade Povich: First off, I’m unsure about his schedule next week with Bradish on the IL. It could be a two-start week against the Yankees and Astros. Povich is similar to Thorpe in that he has a horrible fastball (92.2, 47% usage) but average or better secondaries. It’ll take a special talent to thrive as his velocity. Upside of Seth Lugo or Aaron Civale.
Mitchell Parker: While not a ton of strikeouts (6.7 K/9), he has been able to limit hard contact (.254 BABIP, 0.9 HR/9) leading to a 3.21 ERA (3.98 xFIP) and 1.09 WHIP.
Simeon Woods Richardson: The 23-year-old has been steady with a 3.29 ERA (4.19 xFIP), 1.15 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9.
José Soriano: Of the 68 pitchers with 70 IP, his 60% GB% ranks second. His 3.5 BB/9 is holding him back from taking a step forward.
JP Sears: A solid low-4.00’s ERA talent. Streamable based on the matchup.
Albert Suárez 수아레즈: Some regression should be expected for his 1.61 ERA, especially with home runs (0.2 HR/9).
Hurston Waldrep: Struggled in his debut with 7 ER, 4 BB, and just 1 K in 3.2 IP. His start on Sunday will go a long way to determining his demand. In AA, he had a 2.92 ERA (3.54 xFIP), 16.5 K/9, and 1.40 WHIP in 49 IP. He’s struggled with walks and looked to have them under control. Guess not.
Carlos Rodriguez: Mixed results in his debut with 4 K, 1 BB, 7 H, and 2 ER in 3.2 IP (71 pitches). He might line up for two starts next week (LAA, SD). It might be a good week to roster-and-bench.
Joey Estes: His flyball (18% GB%) nature burned him in his last start by allowing 2 HR over 5 IP against the Padres. With reasonable strikeout (7.9 K/9) and walk (2.3 BB/9) numbers, his per-game results will be up and down depending on the home runs allowed.
Cody Poteet: Of the 178 starters with at least 20 IP, Poteet’s 7% K%-BB% ranks 155th. A .220 BABIP points to heavy regression from his WHIP (1.05) and ERA (2.14). He’s worth streaming for Wins with the Yankees bullpen and offense backing.
David Peterson: I’m not sure who he is right now. Many arrows pointing in different directions. In 15 IP, he has just 6 K but a 57% GB%. Projections vary from a 3.34 ERA from Steamer to a 4.61 ERA from ZiPS. At best, he’s a bench-and-monitor type of pitcher.
Miles Mikolas: A mid-4.50 ERA talent who is streamable like this week’s two-step against the Pirates and Cubs.
Hogan Harris: The 27-year-old has always struggled with walks (7.4 BB/9 in AAA) but is down at 3.2 BB/9 in the majors (ERA estimators near 4.00). A 4.00 ERA talent is streamable and Harris might be that but keep an eye on that walk rate.
Matt Strahm: Middle reliever placeholder. I’d rather roster a middle reliever than anyone listed below him.
Tobias Myers: Mixed results (3.76 ERA, 5.03 FIP, .238 BABIP, 1.8 HR/9) make the 25-year-old hard to value.
Spencer Arrighetti: Some signs point up like a 10.5 K/9 and a 1.23 ERA (3.98) over his last three starts. The problem is that he walks too many batters (5.0 BB/9, 1.62) and is a WHIP killer in a roto league. One reason his strikeout rate is so high is that he gets extra strikeout chances because of the walks he allows.
Colin Rea: A 82% LOB% and .260 BABIP has him with a 3.31 ERA, while everything else points to a 4.50 ERA talent. Expect regression.
Randy Vásquez: The only reason he’s being added is a two-start week at the Phillies and versus the Brewers. Ignore.
Cal Quantrill: I know what Quantrill has done so far this season, but I can’t recommend a Rockies arm with a 5.00 ERA projection.
Starting Pitcher Stashes
Max Meyer: Supposed to be in the majors “soon”. In AAA, the 25-year-old has a 6.46 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 in 30 IP.
Yariel Rodriguez: Rehabbing in AAA (0.52 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 13.5 K/9) and could be in the Jays rotation within the week. One issue to monitor is his walk rate (4.7 BB/9 in MLB, 5.2 BB/9 in AAA) so he could inflate a team’s WHIP.
Jeffrey Springs: Made a 2 IP start in AAA.
Robbie Ray: Made three appearances in complex ball.
Pitchers for managers who ate paint chips as a child, transcended to a life of mushrooms & frog licking while making meth without a respirator in an unventilated room.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin SP WAS | 40% | 73% | 33% |
| Max Meyer SP MIA | 37% | 42% | 5% |
| Mitchell Parker SP WAS | 35% | 45% | 10% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP MIN | 33% | 35% | 2% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 32% | 36% | 4% |
| Jose Soriano SP LAA | 31% | 38% | 7% |
| Cal Quantrill SP COL | 31% | 36% | 5% |
| Jeffrey Springs SP TB | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Miles Mikolas SP STL | 28% | 37% | 9% |
| Robbie Ray SP SF | 27% | 33% | 6% |
| Hurston Waldrep SP ATL | 25% | 35% | 10% |
| Spencer Arrighetti SP HOU | 23% | 36% | 13% |
| Cade Povich SP BAL | 23% | 24% | 1% |
| Colin Rea SP MIL | 20% | 24% | 4% |
| Albert Suarez RP BAL | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Matt Strahm RP PHI | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Drew Thorpe P CHW | 12% | 42% | 30% |
| Joey Estes SP OAK | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| Yariel Rodriguez SP TOR | 11% | 13% | 2% |
| Trevor Bauer SP LAD | 8% | 15% | 7% |
| Cody Poteet SP NYY | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| David Peterson SP NYM | 7% | 14% | 7% |
| Tobias Myers SP MIL | 3% | 21% | 18% |
| Carlos Rodriguez SP MIL | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Randy Vasquez SP SD | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| DJ Herz SP WSN | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Hogan Harris RP OAK | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Jonathan Cannon SP CHW | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Relievers: Save-based ranks
Tyler Kinley: Below-average reliever is the closer.
Yimi García: Great reliever who is still closing but Jordan Romano is about off the IL.
Fernando Cruz: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Colin Holderman: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Luke Weaver: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Bryan Hudson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Jared Koenig: Average reliever is a few steps away from closing.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yimi Garcia RP TOR | 40% | 44% | 4% |
| Bryan Hudson RP MIL | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Luke Weaver RP NYY | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Fernando Cruz RP CIN | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Tyler Kinley RP COL | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Colin Holderman RP PIT | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Jared Koenig RP MIL | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Good stuff! Thanks for making my Sunday great!