FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 1)
Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.
Batters: Just a couple of names stand out right now. The rest seem to blend together, with the position probably being the deciding factor.
Jake Burger: Looks to be healthy again and hitting dongs. He has 30+ HR upside.
Matt Wallner: If he continues to start against a lefty, he has 30 HR upside.
Brett Baty: Started both games so far as the DH. If he continues to play every day, he’s easily the #1 add.
Josh Lowe: Starting with the hope of getting back to the 20 HR and 32 SB of 2023.
TJ Friedl: Leading off with the hope of getting back to the 18 HR and 27 SB of 2023.
Carson Williams: Will need to improve on the 42% K% from last season to reach his 25 HR/25 SB upside. He’s showing gains in Contact% vs last year both in Spring Training (70% Contact%) and his first few of games (73% Contact%).
Ryan O’Hearn: The 15 HR and .275 AVG bat didn’t get platooned against the first lefty the team faced.
Cam Smith: Starting as the right fielder with 15 HR/10 SB upside.
Nolan Schanuel: His bat speed is up almost 3 mph from last season. With the increase in speed, he’s settling for less contact.
Cole Young: When he hits the ball (67% K%), he hits it hard (100% HardHit%). Interesting based on the unknown.
Chase Meidroth: Leading off with the potential to hit 10 HR with 20 SB.
Andrés Giménez: He plays every game and steals a few bases. Yep, that’s it.
Jake Bauers: He could be guaranteed more playing time with Andrew Vaughn headed to the IL. His projections prorate out to 30 HR and 20 SB, but with a .200 AVG.
TJ Rumfield: Batting fifth with the hope of a .275 AVG and 20 HR at first base.
Dominic Canzone: Showing some early-season power (2 HR) with an improved contact rate (90% Contact%). Didn’t start against the first lefty.
Jake McCarthy: While a solid source of steals, he struggled to be a replacement-level hitter last season (60 wRC+). At least he’s on the Rockies, who don’t really have many replacement-level players.
Josh Jung: Healthy for now with the potential to hit 25 HR.
Coby Mayo: He will continue to get starts with Jordan Westberg on the IL. Has 20 HR power bus he’s a batting average sink.
Josh Smith: Starting at second base, but just a 12 HR/12 SB talent. Most of his value comes from eventually being qualified at four infield positions.
Colt Keith: He’s been platooned in previous seasons (career .610 OPS vs LHP, .731 OPS vs RHP) and has only two starts in the first three games. Not worth the 13 HR he’ll provide.
Kody Clemens: Strong-side platoon bat who should be a nice source of power when he plays.
Marcelo Mayer: Strong-side platoon bat with not enough skills to be fantasy relevant.
Jesús Sánchez: Only one start in the first three games. While he has 20 HR/20 SB upside, he can’t reach it from the bench.
CJ Kayfus: Will need to hit. The Guardians have too many mediocre outfielders, so the ones who standout will play. Upside of 15 HR, 5 SB, and .240 AVG.
Max Muncy (ATH): Struggling to make contact (5 K in 8 PA) after showing some improvement in Spring Training (22% K%).
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith 3B DET | 37% | 42% | 5% |
| Brett Baty 3B NYM | 34% | 43% | 9% |
| Coby Mayo 3B BAL | 34% | 39% | 5% |
| Josh H. Smith SS TEX | 33% | 42% | 9% |
| Marcelo Mayer SS BOS | 33% | 39% | 6% |
| Ryan O’Hearn 1B PIT | 33% | 38% | 5% |
| Cam Smith 3B HOU | 32% | 43% | 11% |
| TJ Friedl CF CIN | 31% | 39% | 8% |
| Matt Wallner LF MIN | 29% | 39% | 10% |
| Jake Burger 3B TEX | 29% | 35% | 6% |
| Nolan Schanuel 1B LAA | 28% | 47% | 19% |
| Josh Jung 3B TEX | 22% | 29% | 7% |
| Joshua Lowe RF LAA | 22% | 27% | 5% |
| Andres Gimenez 2B TOR | 21% | 26% | 5% |
| Carson Williams SS TB | 20% | 28% | 8% |
| Dominic Canzone LF SEA | 15% | 32% | 17% |
| Max Muncy SS ATH | 14% | 27% | 13% |
| Jesus Sanchez RF TOR | 13% | 18% | 5% |
| TJ Rumfield 3B COL | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| Chase Meidroth SS CHW | 11% | 16% | 5% |
| Cole Young SS SEA | 10% | 33% | 23% |
| Kody Clemens 1B MIN | 7% | 14% | 7% |
| C.J. Kayfus 1B CLE | 6% | 14% | 8% |
| Jake McCarthy RF COL | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Jake Bauers RF MIL | 1% | 6% | 5% |
Starting pitchers: Almost none of these pitchers have thrown yet as I write this. I’m basing most of the rankings on my preseason ranks.
Matthew Liberatore: While his fastball velocities are up a bit, his STUPH models improved quite a bit. His botERA dropped from 4.62 to 3.87, and his Pitching+ went from 97 to 109. The biggest change was only throwing his horrible sinker and cutter a combined 8% of the time. Last year, he threw them 21% of the time.
José Soriano: Great first start (6 IP, 0 ER, 7 K). For now, all signs point to a breakout. Fastball velocity up 1.1 mph. Ball% down from 39% to 34%. BotERA down from 4.29 to 1.48. Pitching+ from 106 to 126. He threw his sinker less and four-seamer more. His four-seam and sinker have a matched velocity* (98 mph vs 99 mph) with a 6.3″ difference in vertical break.
Parker Messick: He was good in the majors last year (3.15 xFIP) and got a rotation spot.
Max Meyer: Meyer was one of my top offseason targets, and he’d remain as one. Health is an issue, but roster-and-start while healthy.
Brandon Sproat: All his pitch velocities ticked up this spring with a few changes to his pitch mix. The improvements put him at a 10.4 K/9 and 2.70 xFIP.
Mick Abel: Solid once joining the Twins last year (3.50 xFIP) and even better this spring (2.85 xFIP).
Rhett Lowder: I’m interested in the unknown upside, but will move on if he struggles.
Chad Patrick: Struggled with his command this spring (5.8 BB/9). While I like his potential, I’ll keep him on the bench until he has at least one start with control.
Dustin May: His velocity was up in Spring Training compared to the 2025 regular season, but still posted a 4.76 xFIP. Ranked high based on the velo bump, but I’m not comfortable starting him.
Kyle Harrison: He’s throwing a combined 194 IP over three seasons with a 4.32 xFIP and 1.32 ERA. While hopeful, I’m still on a wait-and-see approach with him.
Slade Cecconi: His sinker velocity is up 1.5 mph, and his cutter usage jumped from 3% to 27%. Even with the changes, I’m not sure he’s anything more than a 4.00 ERA talent.
Didier Fuentes: He’ll start the season in the bullpen and eventually be a starter. A 2.55 xFIP and 11.9 K/9 in Spring Training helped push up his stock.
Luis Severino: Fastball velocity was up 1.2 mph in his first start, but he just posted an 8% SwStr%.
Nick Martinez: I’d use him as a streamer. He doesn’t have much upside.
Brayan Bello: A historic 4.00+ ERA starter. Treat him as such.
Clay Holmes: He’s fine with little upside.
Eric Lauer 라우어: Acceptable streamer, not much more.
Cristian Javier: Struggled over the past three seasons (4.47 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) with his fastball velocity under 93 mph. This spring, his velo dropped again to 91.5 mph.
Will Warren: A career 1.44 WHIP had him unplayable, but he dropped his walk rate to 1.1 BB/9 (0.63 WHIP) in Spring Training. Can he keep the walks suppressed?
Steven Matz: Barely streamable as a starter over his career. Start based on matchups only.
Eduardo Rodriguez: Besides a great start against the USA in the WBC, he’s shown no signs of improvement over the last two seasons, where he’s been walk (3.5 BB/9) and home run (1.5 HR/9) prone.
Justin Verlander: I’m not against rostering Verlander, but I want to see a few starts before buying in.
Max Scherzer: I’m not interested at all in a pitcher projected for a 4.50 ERA.
Zach Eflin: There is nothing for the 4.50 ERA talent to improve on. He is at 92 mph and only throwing his fastball ~30% of the time. His secondaries can only do so much. Maybe a streamer.
Taj Bradley: He’s too home run prone (1.5 HR/9) to post a 3.3 BB/9. Hence, the 4.86 ERA over 385 career innings. I need to see him put together a few good starts before I’d consider rostering him.
Joe Boyle: He throws hard and … throws hard. At some point, he needs to translate his minor league numbers to the majors.
Zack Littell: He’s been fine with projections pointing to a 4.50 ERA. Pass.
Michael Soroka: He hasn’t been rosterable for three seasons after coming back from injury, and no changes (5.15 xFIP in Spring Training).
Bryce Elder: A career 4.58 ERA with a 91.5 mph fastball this spring. Go with a middle reliever.
Reid Detmers: Career 4.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP as a starter. For now, I have no interest in him.
Anthony Kay: He struggled with command before going to Japan (5.0 BB/9, 1.61 WHIP). I’ll need to see his profile change before buying.
Cade Cavalli: He has been a top-ranked prospect, but the results (5.08 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 56 IP) haven’t been there. And the Nationals stink. I might have him ranked too high.
José Suarez: All World Series-contending teams start the year with a rotation arm with a career 5.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Injured starters
Justin Steele: Should return from the IL before Burnes to help evaluate his talent level before moving on.
Corbin Burnes: Best starter on the IL, but he could only throw for a couple of months.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer SP MIA | 40% | 56% | 16% |
| Brayan Bello SP BOS | 40% | 48% | 8% |
| Cristian Javier SP HOU | 39% | 55% | 16% |
| Parker Messick P CLE | 38% | 60% | 22% |
| Corbin Burnes SP ARI | 37% | 43% | 6% |
| Mick Abel P MIN | 35% | 61% | 26% |
| Justin Steele SP CHC | 35% | 40% | 5% |
| Luis Severino SP ATH | 34% | 53% | 19% |
| Jose Soriano RP LAA | 34% | 51% | 17% |
| Chad Patrick P MIL | 32% | 48% | 16% |
| Cade Cavalli SP WAS | 32% | 43% | 11% |
| Will Warren P NYY | 31% | 63% | 32% |
| Matthew Liberatore SP STL | 31% | 53% | 22% |
| Clay Holmes RP NYM | 30% | 46% | 16% |
| Nick Martinez RP TB | 30% | 39% | 9% |
| Dustin May SP STL | 27% | 35% | 8% |
| Reid Detmers SP LAA | 27% | 34% | 7% |
| Rhett Lowder SP CIN | 23% | 31% | 8% |
| Kyle Harrison SP MIL | 23% | 29% | 6% |
| Taj Bradley SP MIN | 21% | 29% | 8% |
| Justin Verlander SP DET | 20% | 28% | 8% |
| Zach Eflin SP BAL | 19% | 27% | 8% |
| Slade Cecconi SP CLE | 18% | 30% | 12% |
| Brandon Sproat SP MIL | 17% | 36% | 19% |
| Max Scherzer SP TOR | 16% | 27% | 11% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez SP ARI | 13% | 21% | 8% |
| Didier Fuentes P ATL | 12% | 35% | 23% |
| Zack Littell SP WAS | 10% | 15% | 5% |
| Bryce Elder SP ATL | 7% | 12% | 5% |
| Mike Soroka SP ARI | 6% | 44% | 38% |
| Joe Boyle SP TB | 6% | 12% | 6% |
| Steven Matz SP TB | 6% | 17% | 11% |
| Anthony Kay RP CHW | 5% | 10% | 5% |
| Eric Lauer SP TOR | 4% | 13% | 9% |
| Jose Suarez SP ATL | 0% | 5% | 5% |
Relievers (Saves-based ranks)
Jordan Romano: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Paul Sewald: Below-average reliever who looks to be the closer.
Cole Sands: Below-average reliever who got the team’s first Save.
Victor Vodnik: Below-average reliever who the team says is the closer.
Lucas Erceg: Great reliever who is setting up a shaky closer.
Clayton Beeter: Average reliever who could be the closer.
Hogan Harris: Below-average reliever who is being used in high-leverage spots.
Taylor Rogers: OK reliever who may be the closer
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Beeter RP WAS | 31% | 37% | 6% |
| Lucas Erceg RP KC | 19% | 24% | 5% |
| Taylor Rogers RP MIN | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Paul Sewald RP ARI | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Hogan Harris RP ATH | 10% | 18% | 8% |
| Victor Vodnik RP COL | 8% | 16% | 8% |
| Jordan Romano RP LAA | 2% | 17% | 15% |
* The theory is that major league hitters can pick up the difference in velocity, so they know it’s a fastball, but the break will throw them off. It’s part of the theory behind why Bryan Woo’s fastballs are so good. I wrote more on the subject for The Process and will write it up for RotoGraphs this week.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Any interest in Hoskins? Would he rank in that list anywhere if you need power?