FAAB Projections (9/14/19)
Compared to last week when nothing happened, a few interesting names popped up this week for those still with FAAB left to spend.
The projection guidelines:
- The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
- The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
- The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
- Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Projected FAAB For Hitters
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Spangenberg 2B | MIL | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Ryan McBroom 1B | KC | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Cornelius Randolph LF | PHI | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Tyler Wade 2B | NYY | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Jose Trevino C | TEX | 1% | 2% | 1% | $1 |
| Reese McGuire C | TOR | 1% | 2% | 1% | $1 |
| Dylan Moore SS | SEA | 2% | 3% | 1% | $1 |
| Cedric Mullins CF | BAL | 2% | 3% | 1% | $1 |
| Austin Romine C | NYY | 4% | 6% | 2% | $1 |
| Martin Maldonado C | HOU | 4% | 5% | 1% | $1 |
| Kyle Lewis CF | SEA | 5% | 14% | 9% | $4 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS | SF | 6% | 8% | 2% | $1 |
| Nico Hoerner SS | CHC | 7% | 15% | 8% | $3 |
| Victor Reyes LF | DET | 8% | 11% | 3% | $1 |
| Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU | 8% | 9% | 1% | $1 |
| Sean Murphy C | OAK | 11% | 17% | 6% | $2 |
| Joey Wendle 2B | TB | 13% | 15% | 2% | $1 |
| Austin Nola SS | SEA | 17% | 21% | 4% | $2 |
| Christin Stewart LF | DET | 17% | 18% | 1% | $1 |
| Eric Thames RF | MIL | 18% | 21% | 3% | $2 |
| Nick Solak 2B | TEX | 19% | 26% | 7% | $7 |
| Trent Grisham RF | MIL | 19% | 23% | 4% | $3 |
| Garrett Cooper LF | MIA | 25% | 27% | 2% | $5 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 26% | 33% | 7% | $12 |
| Tommy Edman SS | STL | 34% | 46% | 12% | $30 |
| Starlin Castro 2B | MIA | 38% | 48% | 10% | $29 |
| Robinson Cano 2B | NYM | 43% | 49% | 6% | $26 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 43% | 44% | 1% | $18 |
| Wil Myers LF | SD | 48% | 66% | 18% | $68 |
| Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF | 49% | 52% | 3% | $28 |
- Kyle Lewis: For any owner needing outfield help, he’s a must-add. The highly-touted prospect is hitting .400/.375/1.067 with three homers in his first four games. If anyone has money left, it’s going towards Lewis.
- Nico Hoerner and Mauricio Dubon: Both are regulars with Hoerner starting five straight and Dubon nine straight. They both are the same skill-set of a great eye for contact with some speed and power.
- Nick Solak: A 26% ownership rate is criminally low for someone hitting .342/.453/.570. He’s started 10 straight games while batting cleanup in all but one of those games.
- Adam Frazier, Tommy Edman, Starlin Castro, and Robinson Cano: While not the sexy options like Hoerner and Dubon, they’re comparable hitters.
- Wil Myers: A huge jump in ownership, but he should have been owned in deeper leagues since the Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians.
- Sean Murphy: Since being called up, Muphy is hitting .409/.458/1.091 in eight games with four homers.
Projected FAAB For Pitchers
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Bolanos SP | SD | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1 |
| Seung-Hwan Oh RP | COL | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| James Karinchak RP | CLE | 1% | 3% | 2% | $1 |
| Jorge Lopez RP | KC | 2% | 5% | 3% | $1 |
| Jairo Diaz RP | COL | 3% | 7% | 4% | $1 |
| Nick Wittgren RP | CLE | 3% | 4% | 1% | $1 |
| Chad Green RP | NYY | 4% | 5% | 1% | $1 |
| Anthony Kay SP | TOR | 7% | 9% | 2% | $1 |
| Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK | 7% | 8% | 1% | $1 |
| Will Harris RP | HOU | 8% | 9% | 1% | $1 |
| Trevor May RP | MIN | 9% | 10% | 1% | $1 |
| Arodys Vizcaino RP | SEA | 10% | 11% | 1% | $1 |
| Trent Thornton RP | TOR | 11% | 13% | 2% | $1 |
| Drew Smyly SP | PHI | 14% | 16% | 2% | $1 |
| Johnny Cueto SP | SF | 21% | 46% | 25% | $21 |
| Justus Sheffield RP | SEA | 27% | 35% | 8% | $1 |
| Dylan Bundy SP | BAL | 28% | 30% | 2% | $1 |
| Michael Wacha SP | STL | 33% | 37% | 4% | $1 |
| Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL | 34% | 38% | 4% | $1 |
| Ross Stripling SP | LAD | 38% | 40% | 2% | $1 |
| Seth Lugo RP | NYM | 42% | 45% | 3% | $1 |
| Zach Eflin SP | PHI | 43% | 45% | 2% | $1 |
| Alex Young SP | ARI | 45% | 56% | 11% | $6 |
| Nathan Eovaldi SP | BOS | 45% | 52% | 7% | $2 |
| Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA | 46% | 49% | 3% | $0 |
| Merrill Kelly SP | ARI | 47% | 54% | 7% | $3 |
| Chase Anderson SP | MIL | 47% | 50% | 3% | $0 |
| Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW | 48% | 56% | 8% | $4 |
| Martin Perez SP | MIN | 50% | 55% | 5% | $2 |
- Johnny Cueto: He’s back and threw five shutout innings. His fastball sat at 91.3 mph which is at his preinjury level. I am a little worried he posted just a 6% SwStr% on the game.
- Alex Young: Young finally pushed his ownership over the 50% mark. He’s been one of the few decent starting options on the waiver wire.
- Michael Wacha: I noticed while going over the Vegas lines, Michael Wacha had stepped up his game in the second half with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP.
- Nathan Eovaldi: Why? Let me look. A two-step against the Giants and at the Rays. It’s tough to trust a 5.00 to 5.50 ERA talent pitcher.
Closer Rankings (Saves focused)
- Seth Lugo
- Nick Wittgren
- James Karinchak
- Trevor May
- Will Harris
- Chad Green
- Jairo Díaz
- Seung-Hwan Oh
- Yusmeiro Petit
- Arodys Vizcaíno
Week 25 FAAB Bids in 2019 NFBC Main Event
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (38) |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Lux | $11 | 35 |
| Kyle Gibson | $9 | 9 |
| Zach Eflin | $8 | 5 |
| Johnny Cueto | $8 | 5 |
| Robinson Cano | $7 | 9 |
| Rich Hill | $6 | 23 |
| Brandon Nimmo | $6 | 10 |
| Dylan Moore | $6 | 23 |
| Tyler Glasnow | $6 | 14 |
| Justus Sheffield | $5 | 17 |
| Patrick Sandoval | $5 | 6 |
| Raimel Tapia | $5 | 6 |
| Seth Brown | $5 | 6 |
| Adam Haseley | $4 | 5 |
| Ross Stripling | $4 | 8 |
| Brendan McKay | $4 | 14 |
| Jairo Diaz | $4 | 8 |
| Joey Wendle | $3 | 11 |
| Dawel Lugo | $3 | 9 |
| Josh James | $3 | 6 |
| Harold Castro | $3 | 5 |
| Drew Smyly | $3 | 5 |
| Josh Rojas | $2 | 17 |
| Mauricio Dubon | $2 | 10 |
| Robert Dugger | $2 | 13 |
| Austin Pruitt | $2 | 6 |
| Matt Beaty | $2 | 8 |
| Tyler Beede | $2 | 5 |
| Garrett Hampson | $2 | 5 |
| Tyler Mahle | $2 | 13 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | $2 | 10 |
| Phillip Ervin | $2 | 5 |
| Ben Zobrist | $2 | 10 |
| Anthony Kay | $1 | 7 |
| Austin Voth | $1 | 5 |
| Julio Urias | $1 | 6 |
| Austin Hedges | $1 | 6 |
Week 26 FAAB Bids in 2018 NFBC Main Event
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (34) |
|---|---|---|
| Yairo Munoz | $16 | 6 |
| Ross Stripling | $16 | 5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | $14 | 12 |
| Daniel Mengden | $14 | 7 |
| Brandon Lowe | $13 | 6 |
| Terrance Gore | $11 | 9 |
| Jose Fernandez | $10 | 11 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano | $10 | 21 |
| Ryan Borucki | $10 | 12 |
| Delino DeShields | $9 | 5 |
| Erick Fedde | $7 | 24 |
| Ty Buttrey | $7 | 20 |
| Jose Alvarado | $6 | 9 |
| Chris Stratton | $6 | 6 |
| Ji-Man Choi | $5 | 14 |
| Willians Astudillo | $5 | 19 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | $5 | 9 |
| Joe Ross | $5 | 10 |
| Steve Cishek | $4 | 10 |
| Cody Reed | $4 | 7 |
| Nate Jones | $4 | 6 |
| Jorge Bonifacio | $4 | 6 |
| Tyler Skaggs | $3 | 5 |
| Brett Anderson | $3 | 6 |
| Jason Vargas | $3 | 7 |
| Daniel Norris | $3 | 8 |
| Christin Stewart | $3 | 10 |
| Jake Bauers | $3 | 7 |
| Wilmer Difo | $3 | 6 |
| Jake Cave | $2 | 7 |
| Aaron Altherr | $2 | 5 |
| Joe Mauer | $1 | 5 |
| Robbie Erlin | $1 | 7 |
| Victor Caratini | $1 | 9 |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.