FAAB Frenzy and Waivers Wild: Week 3

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 2 Overview

The hottest hitters of the week were Andy Pages (.583 – 2 HR – 7 RBI), Yordan Alvarez (.471-3-8), Oneil Cruz (.360-4-10), Ben Rice (.421-3-9), CJ Abrams (.333-3-10) and Drake Baldwin (.310-2-10). Luisangel Acuña was the only player with four stolen bases. Four consensus first round hitters have yet to hit a home run (Bobby Witt Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Fernando Tatis Jr.). Second-rounders Cal Raleigh and Nick Kurtz have yet to homer as well. It’s a long season, they will be alright. Of the 30 starting pitchers who made two starts in Week 2, 10% (three) earned two wins – Clay Holmes, Michael Soroka and Davis Martin. I’ve tracked two-start pitcher data the last few seasons, and that 10% rate is on par with average week over the last three seasons, usually hovering between 6% and 18% most weeks. Be wary about chasing wins with below-average starting pitchers this early in the season. As the data shows, locking in two wins without crushing the ratios is hard enough for above-average starters. Be particularly careful with mediocre or below-average 2x SPs whose first start is on a Tuesday. Sometimes weather will push their start back until the following week. Occasionally, those pitchers are pulled out of the rotation or demoted if they had a rough first start. Oftentimes, that is for the better to avoid further fantasy ERA/WHIP damage.

As we did last week, let’s review the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB).

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

% Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player; AWB stands for average winning bid

Jordan Walker has been a disappointment since his rookie season. Despite positive offseason reports about adjustments made at Driveline, Walker struggled in spring training, and was mostly overlooked by NFBC 12-team drafters. I won’t take a victory lap after 10 days, but I would like to mention that Walker is one of my highest rostered hitters this season. Walker was the only player with a triple-digit AWB. Relievers Riley O’Brien and Gregory Soto, and Seattle’s SP5 Emerson Hancock came close. Hancock is now rostered in each of the 240 OCs. O’Brien and Soto are still available in two percent of leagues.

Relievers

It’s the second week in a row where we’re discussing the Cardinals bullpen. Hopefully, it will be the last time. Riley O’Brien had the highest ADP this winter and spring among Cardinals relievers, though a calf injury kept from joining South Korea for the WBC and his ADP began to drop while the ADPs of JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson rose. Veteran Ryne Stanek snagged the first opportunity and closed the game out, though he walked three batters. He then stumbled in his second chance two days later, and O’Brien saved the day. Last week, O’Brien further distanced himself from the pack with three clean innings in three appearances, with two saves. Meanwhile, Matt Svanson has struggled mightily in middle relief. JoJo Romero would like step up for the occasional save opportunity when a southpaw is needed.

Gregory Soto is well known for throwing heat. He saved 30 games for the Tigers in 2022 and has spent the last few seasons as a lefty setup man who walks opposing batters at an above-average clip (over 10%). Last Tuesday, assumed Pirates closer Dennis Santana pitched the eighth inning and Soto handled the ninth, though the Pirates scored two runs in the top of the ninth, so it wasn’t a save opportunity. The Pirates beat the Reds 8-3 again on Wednesday. Santana didn’t make an appearance, but Soto did so again in the ninth; again it wasn’t a save opportunity since the Pirates scored four in the ninth. A similar setup occurred on Friday as Santana pitched a clean eighth and Soto came in to close out the Orioles in the ninth, though he gave up a solo shot to Gunnar Henderson. The Pirates continued their late-game heroics on Saturday. With the game tied 3-3 going into the ninth, Santana stepped in to pitch a clean ninth, then Nick Yorke walked it off with a double to give Santana the win. Soto is the more dynamic of the two, but is less stable because of history with free passes. It’s possible Soto earns more opportunities going forward, though it will likely remain a committee for now. The only thing that can hold Soto running away with the gig is Soto himself.

Paul Sewald was picked up in 21% of Fantrax leagues. Oddly, the Diamondbacks clear-as-day closer is only rostered in 61% of leagues, likely because of the inclusion of 10-teamers, points leagues, and roto leagues where holds are used in addition to saves. Tyler Alexander was scooped up in many leagues, though he is more of a spec-add. He has earned the Rangers only two saves, but is not the clear ninth-inning man. This was originally expected to be a two-man committee with lefty Robert Garcia and righty Chris Martin. Garcia hasn’t been great and Martin has been awful. Martin may move into a setup role, though the Rangers do still need a righty to step up. Perhaps that will be fireballer Cole Winn, who I picked up for $5 in a 15-team league on Sunday. Mark Leiter Jr. might be the first guy dropped from NFBC leagues next week if his struggles continue. He blew the save on Saturday and isn’t even locked into the A’s job. Bryan Baker hasn’t earned a save for the Rays yet, but has been pitching in the highest-leverage spots with Garrett Cleavinger on IL and Griffin Jax struggling.

Starting Pitchers

Hancock, Randy Vásquez and Lance McCullers Jr. were three of the most popular SP acquisitions of the weekend. Hancock followed up his masterful Opening Weekend performance (nine punchouts in six hitless innings) with a solid outing (6.2 IP – 6 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 5 K) on Saturday, though the Mariners were robbed of three home runs by Angels Jo Adell and lost 1-0. Hancock lines up for a home start (Astros) this week, then a road start against the Padres. He should be quickly snagged in any leagues where he is available, 10-teamers included.

Randy Vásquez had some offseason buzz in deeper formats despite a ridiculously low 15% career walk rate. Folks paying attention may have noticed a slight velocity bump from Vásquez this spring, which he parlayed into two six-inning gems — an 11:4 K:BB with just eight hits and one earned run allowed against the Tigers at home and the Red Sox in Fenway. He has been throwing his four-seam fastball, sinker and slider 1-2 mph faster than last season and boasts an impressive 15.5% swinging-strike rate, albeit in a two-start sample. He now gets the pleasure of facing the Rockies at home, who will be heading over to San Diego from the high elevation of Denver.

The Bryce Elder Experience returns for another tour, likely to yet again tease us before destroying our ratios. Elder had a few good starts last season, but the overall body of work was horrific. His 5.30 ERA ranked sixth-worst among starting pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched. Could this turn into his breakout tour? His pitch mix and velocity remains the same and there’s nothing in his profile that portends massive improvement. He threw six scoreless against the A’s in his first start and seven scoreless with eight punchouts in Arizona on Saturday. It’s enough to lure us into starting him at home against the Guardians this week. Color me dubious, nevertheless.

Hitters

Among the top hitter adds on Fantrax, Mauricio Dubón, Joey Wiemer and Kyle Isbel feel like the ones most likely to find their way back to the free agent pool next week. Dubón has some appeal in deeper formats since he’s on a great offense and offers several positions of eligibility (on Fantrax he’s 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Wiemer had a hot start but he’s a short-side platoon bat and is a massive batting average drag. Isbel and his bottom-of-the-order crew have been producing the bulk of the runs over the last week, but it’s only a matter of days before the production shifts to the top and the middle of the Royals lineup.

Rookie infielder Jose Fernandez has cooled off since his 2-HR Major League debut last week, though with Carlos Santana banged up, Fernandez should earn more playing time going forward. In his first four career starts, he has already played first base, third base and DH. Fernandez is shortstop eligible in NFBC and would need to play 10 games at first or third to earn that eligibility. The Diamondbacks have some tough matchups this week facing the Mets and the Phillies.

Mark Vientos and TJ Rumfield are the two most intriguing and potentially valuable hitter acquisitions of the week. Vientos is off to a hot start, hitting .476 in 23 plate appearances. He is playing every day since Jorge Polanco is playing through an Achilles issue and is not ready to play the field yet. The Mets will have to get creative when Polanco can play first base again, but Polanco never had before this season and we don’t know if they’ll revert to their preseason plan. Rumfield isn’t hitting the ball hard (84.3 EV, 32% HH), but he is slashing .345/.406/.586 with two dingers and has the hold on the strong-side platoon at first base. He is a stronger stream option with the Rockies expected to face seven righties this week.

Drop of the Week

It’s hard to imagine Roki Sasaki sticking in the Dodgers rotation much longer after his shaky outing against the lowly Nationals on Sunday (6 ER, 3 BB in 5 IP). Sasaki’s four-seam fastball has averaged 97 mph, but it’s generated a 20% whiff rate and a measly 5.6% strikeout rate. Between his quotes and body language, it is clear that he lacks confidence on the mound. Manager Dave Roberts has been extremely patient throughout Sasaki’s rough spring, but a little reset in the minors or a trip to the minors may be in the cards. There are too many terrific alternatives available in 12-team leagues to continue to ride the Sasaki train, at least for now.