Evaluating Last Minute MLB Roster Adds

American League

Angels

• Jack Kochanowicz made the Angels rotation, and the only place he’s rosterable right now is probably in AL-only leagues. There will be times he’ll be streamable, but for now, he’s a poor man’s Marcus Stroman. Both create a decent number of ground balls but can’t strike anyone out. At least Stroman had a 6.6 K/9 last season, while Kochanowicz’s was half that (3.4 K/9).

Astros

• I’m all about the Cam Smith hype, with my one worry being strikeouts tanking him like Jo Adell and Jared Kelenic. In Spring Training, Smith posted a 26% K% (15% SwStr%). Those numbers could get worse once the season starts. Major league pitchers will attack any holes in his swing. Hopefully, it’s only one and a small one.

Athletics

• I don’t understand how Joey Estes made the starting rotation unless they are trying to limit the innings of Mitch Spence and J.T. Ginn. Estes was easily the worst option. Last season, he barely struck anyone out (6.5 K/9 in ’24). His fly ball nature (25% GB%) allowed a ton of home runs (1.6 HR/9). He showed no signs of improvement this spring (5.4 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 6.01 xFIP). Ignore.

Blue Jays

• I’m not sure how much Alan Roden will play. He’s worth an add to the bench as a backup for a week or two to see if he plays enough to be fantasy-relevant.

Guardians

• It seems like no one wanted Gabriel Arias to win the second base battle. He’s already qualified at third base, so he’ll have two positions in a couple of weeks. I targeted him late in draft-and-holds based on his Steamer600 projection. Here is that projection and some comps.

His on-base skills are a joke, but the 15 HR/15 SB potential is nice. The best-case scenario is that he runs a high BABIP and posts double-digit home runs and stolen bases with a .250 AVG.

Mariners

• Ryan Bliss will start at second base. He’s similar to Arias in that he’s projected to be a poor real-life player (.650 OPS or worse projections) but could be fantasy-relevant with a 40 SB potential. Just look at his Steamer600 comps.

It’s guys who can be relevant for a week to a month but can’t maintain regular jobs.

Rangers

• There is some smoke behind Luke Jackson being the closer. My one issue with Jackson is that he struggled against lefties last season (3.21 xFIP vs RHH, 4.75 xFIP vs LHH) and over his career (3.51 xFIP vs RHH, 4.53 xFIP vs LHH). There is a chance that Jackson is just ROOGY.

Red Sox

• When the Red Sox say they like a guy, believe them. They started with praise for Kristian Campbell early this offseason and never let up. Even though the 22-year-old right-handed batter hit just .167/.305/.271 (31% K%) in Spring Training, he’s on the Opening Day roster. He’s an overall top-10 prospect, so I won’t have analysis to add about that prospect writers haven’t already said.

With so many teams saying one thing and doing another, it’s refreshing to see the Red Sox stick to their vision.

White Sox

• Taking a chance on Miguel Vargas’s rebound might seem like gambling, but in deeper leagues, he’s a nice bench bat that covers possible outfield and third base days off and/or injuries. I prefer to take a chance on as many starting pitcher breakouts as possible, and Vargas allows me to roster an extra arm.

National League

Cardinals

• After the announcement that Matthew Liberatore made the rotation, it was obvious that the team wasn’t trying to win. The team stuck with their “see-how-good-is-everyone” plan that rebuilding (i.e. losing) teams implement. My guess is that management promised him a set number of starts and then will decide if he remains a starter or goes back to the bullpen.

The 25-year-old lefty lucked into a 1.61 ERA in Spring training (4.93 xFIP, 0 HR, .188 BABIP) with no arsenal changes. He didn’t add any velocity, and he’s still throwing five pitches. Out of the bullpen last season, his slider played up (22% SwStr%) compared to when he started in previous seasons (12% SwStr% in ’23, 14% in ’24). He’ll need to push that slider usage to 40%+ to be relevant.

Giants

• With Jerar Encarnacion (hand surgery) out for a while, Wilmer Flores looks to have a full run at the DH position with no left-handed bench platoon options. Here is a list of his Steamer600 comps, many are being drafted before him.

Don’t ignore him in deeper leagues as injuries begin to pile up.

• I targeted Landen Roupp in all my draft-and-holds based entirely on his table.

Three secondaries posted a 15% SwStr% or better. While his sinker didn’t miss bats, it kept the ball on the ground (61% GB%). He could be useful starting or relieving.

In four starts to end last season, he posted a 3.86 ERA (4.17 xFIP), 6.7 K/9, and 1.39 WHIP. In 12 IP this Spring Training, it was a 3.75 ERA (3.48 xFIP), 10.5 K/9, and 0.75 WHIP. Not great but serviceable.

He has some upside and should be rostered in every league to see how his first few starts go.

Pirates

• A Carmen Mlodzinski is in the rotation. While the 26-year-old righty made four starts last season, none lasted more than two innings. As a reliever, he posted a 3.38 ERA (4.18 xFIP), 8.2 K/9, and 1.18 WHIP. He used four pitches (four-seamer, slider, sweeper, and change) with the slider and sweeper being the only pitches to get swings-and-misses (16% SwStr%). He added a sinker this spring because that’s what all the cool kids are doing.

Over his career, he’s struggled with walks.

Year (level): BB/9
2021 (minors): 3.8 BB/9
2022 (minors): 3.4 BB/9
2023 (minors): 4.1 BB/9
2023 (majors): 4.5 BB/9
2024 (minors): 4.2 BB/9
2024 (majors): 3.4 BB/9

He was barely holding on as a reliever, and his production will drop once starting. He’s not the worst pitcher I analyzed, but I have no faith in starting him for a few weeks. Monitor from Waiver Wire or bench.