Ervin Santana Trade Implications
Yesterday, the Royals acquired Ervin Santana and cash from the Angels for minor-leaguer Brandon Sisk. Our own Dave Cameron extensively covered the deal from the real world perspective. The change in scenery does look to change Santana’s value for the worse, but regressing back to the his previous production level will be the main key for his fantasy value going forward.
Here is a quick look at the surrounding changes by him moving from the Angels to the Royals
Park Factors (PF)
Basic
Angels: 96
Royals: 101
Home Runs
Angels: 97
Royals: 92
Defense (2012)
UZR
Angels: +44
Royals: -10
Defensive Efficiency
Angels: .708 (best in the AL)
Royals: .673 (worst in the AL)
Offensive support (2012)
Angels: 4.73 Runs/G
Royals: 4.17 Run/G
While the change in home park looks to be neutral for the 29-year-old right-handed pitcher, the other two factors show that the move will have have some negative implications. The porous Royals defense will lead to more hits (higher WHIP) and then more runs (higher ERA) and more losses (less Wins). Also, he will likely see half a run less in run support which will adversely affect his win total. The move will likely bring down his fantasy value a bit.
The biggest factor in 2013 that will determine his value is how he will pitch after struggling in 2012. In 2012, his ERA jumped to career high of 5.63. The main factor causing the jump was his league leading two home runs per nine innings. It was the highest value among all qualified starters. Besides being the highest value last year, it was the 2nd highest value in the last 10 years behind Bronson Arroyo’s 2.1 HR/9 in 2011. Some regression should be expected. To determine how much, I took the 10 pitcher with high home run rates and determined their change in HR rate for the next season. On average, the the HR rate dropped 0.5 with the range being no drop (Eric Milton from 2004 to 2005) to a drop of one point (Carlos Silva from 2006 to 2007).
Besides the astronomical home run rate, the next biggest concerns with Santana was a significant drop in his fastball speed in the send half of 2012.
Month: Fastball speed (mph)
April: 93.3
May: 92.6
June: 92.6
July: 92.5
August: 91.3
September: 91.6
Over the course of the season, he lost almost 2 MPH on his fast ball.
The only negative effect on his core stats seemed to be his higher HR/9 rate as both his K/BB and BABIP improved:
Going into 2013, it will be tough to get a gauge on Santana. I would not count on him for any kind of reliable and/or decent production. If healthy, he will throw a bunch of innings. How he does in those innings is really up in the air. The home run rate will probably come down, but how much? Is the drop in velocity permanent? (Note: The Royals have PITCHf/x installed at their home spring training site, so his fastball speed will be known going into season) Will he learn to pitch with the lower velocity? I would late a late round flier on him to see if he turns it around, but I would not have him be part of any everyday pitching staff to begin the season.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Im calling BS on this article. Royals last in defense? Your metrics have Escobar last at SS, which shows how bad your tools are a measuring defense. Royals have gold gloves at LF. And were in contention for a gold glove at SS, 3B, RF and C. Their CF is above league average. Their one weak spot is 2B defensively.
ESPN had Escobar with a positive 0.2 defensive WAR (that isn’t very good). He also second, to only Starlin Castro (yikes) in errors. His range puts him in the middle of the pack. I know metric systems are flawed, but sometimes it takes more than the eye test.
I would tend to agree that the Royals Defense should be better than this. Though they had Dyson playing CF for half or more of the season and he looked absolutely LOST, so I would believe that he cost them gobs of R.
In 2011 Hosmer’s metrics had him miserable to his right. He’s by all accounts a smooth glove man so it was a bit curious. I’m not sure how he fared this season. Some article on Fangraphs or a Royals Blog looked into last year and believed that he was playing too close to the line, effectively rendering his range very tight to the line.
Escobar is one of the best up the middle but very avg on range to his right. It’s always been known that Moose was avg to fringy defensive though the metrics had him as actually having a decent season. As good as Frenchy’s arm is in RF his jumps are horrible and surely cost more than his arm saved. Balls he should be camped under he’s playing on one hop. He’s particularly bad on balls in front of him.
Sure Trout is great in CF and having Hunter in RF keeps the fly outs coming, but Trumbo is certainly a liability in LF.
My takeaway here is that it would be good to see a couple seasons metrics averaged out. In addition to my unhealthy addiction to watching crappy Royals baseball, I was lucky enough to see the Angels several times in person this year and it seemed nothing ever landed in the OF and their infield D was solid if unspectacular. Metrics plus the eye test seem to be needed in making any assessment of defensive acumen.