Eric Sogard & Roenis Elias: Deep League Wire

As usual, injuries create opportunity for others. That’s the theme yet again in this week’s edition of the deep league waiver wire.

Eric Sogard | 2B OAK | CBS 2% Owned

A knee injury to incumbent Ben Zobrist is expected to knock him out for the next four to six weeks. That vaults Sogard into a starting role and he should receive the majority of the starts at second base. Unfortunately, Sogard is as boring as it gets. He has no power, as he sports a career ISO below .100 and he doesn’t walk a whole lot. Given his excellent defense at second base throughout his career, there obviously must have been a reason why he has remained a bench bat, and that’s because his offensive upside is rather limited.

However, he does offer something for fantasy owners to possibly look forward to. He has stolen 24 bases over his 987 career plate appearances and attempted 34 thefts. Extrapolating that over a full 600 plate appearance season yields about 15 steals in 21 attempts. In a deep league, a 15 stolen base pace has value.

The other thing he does is make excellent contact. His SwStk% has never been above 4.5% and his career mark sits at an impressive 3.9%. That’s really, really good. It’s why his career strikeout rate is a very solid 12.8%. Normally, that would lead to high batting average potential, but his BABIP has jumped all over the place, en route to a career average of just .267. But given his high line drive rate, one would think that could be better. With limited power, he’s never going to sniff .300 because he won’t benefit from the homers that are automatic hits. But, he’s sitting at .264 at the moment, which only requires a slightly above average .304 BABIP. In an AL-Only league, a .264 team average might put you in the top three in the league!

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So with a bunch of stolen bases and the potential for a beneficial average, along with regular playing time, he’s worth a look if you’re in need of middle infield help in your deep league.

Roenis Elias | SP SEA | 7% Owned

The southpaw debuted last year with the Mariners and was nearly league average all around. It’s nothing exciting, to be sure, but a rookie holding his own should be monitored. With Hisashi Iwakuma on the DL and potentially out a couple of weeks, Elias was summoned to take his spot in the rotation. The lefty features a three-pitch mix and leans heavily on his off-speed offerings. Last season, both his changeup and curve ball induced swinging strikes at above average rates, while both pitches also induced grounders at a 50%+ clip.

As a lefty, you always worry about his splits. But he posted nearly identical xFIPs against batters of both handedness, trading some strikeouts for more control against righties. Elias gets to call a pitcher friendly park home, one that sported an overall park factor that ranked 23rd highest in baseball. On the negative side, the Mariners defense has been pretty awful in the early going, as they have posted a -14.7 UZR/150, third worst in baseball.

You may only get a couple of starts from Elias until Iwakuma returns, but in a deep league when your choices are low upside guys who could torpedo your ratios, he becomes an appealing option. And as the team’s sixth starter behind Taijuan Walker and his shoulder issues and J.A. Happ who has never thrown more than 166 innings in the Majors, Elias should get another chance in the rotation at some point.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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baltic wolf
10 years ago

Mike: I own Brad Miller as my middle IF option in both a 14 and a 16 team points league. In both leagues, walks matter (1 pt. and 1.2 pts., respectively) and steals aren’t as important (1.7 and 1.5) as in a categories league or other points leagues that award more points for steals.

Would you drop Miller for Sogard in either league? Sogard’s lack of power concerns me while I still think—perhaps mistakenly—that Miller is capable of 12-13 homers ROS. And since both leagues reward RBI nicely (1.2 and 1.4 per RBI) homers matter. Thanks.