Eric Hosmer is a Bit Too Expensive for My Taste
That’s two good years and one bad year for Eric Hosmer. The one bad year, which was really his first full season in the majors, still wasn’t too bad from a fantasy standpoint as he still managed to hit 14 home runs and steal 16 bases. Hosmer is essentially a Paul Goldschmidt-lite, due to his ability to contribute in the steals category while many of his counterpoints give nothing in that department.
Even so, I still don’t think I’m going after Hosmer as my primary first base option this season. I had a few shares of him last year as I felt he was undervalued entering the draft, but going right after Freddie Freeman and Buster Posey seems like a significant drop off to me even if we expect him to sustain his rate stats and improve a bit in the power department.
I spoke a few weeks ago about how I would rather avoid the risk of Anthony Rizzo despite the talent, but if I had to choose between the two at their respective draft spots I would much rather take Rizzo. Hosmer is a guy that you can’t even expect to hit 20 home runs. You can certainly hope he will, but to have an expectation that he will hit 20 or more is leaning a bit too hard on one side of the bell curve in my opinion.
ZiPS and Steamer both have pretty solid expectations for Hosmer, with him hitting the 20 home run mark and reaching double digit steals. Along with that comes a decent .285 average from Steamer and .296 average from ZiPS. There’s no doubt, he has value. But at the position we are expecting the most offensive production, drafting Hosmer as a top-8 first baseman seems a bit aggressive.
To counter, Brandon Belt is going in ESPN leagues as the 18th first baseman, between Brandon Moss and Jose Abreu (another guy I love that late). 90 picks later you can get .265-.270 with 15-16 home runs and 7-9 steals. That is obviously less impressive than Hosmer’s numbers, but the value in what can be had in between drafting Hosmer and drafting Belt is significant. Add on that if you are playing in on base percentage leagues, which is more and more frequent year after year, and Belt becomes even more attractive due to an improved average.
I am not even really arguing that I like drafting Belt a ton, because I want my first basemen to be hitting home runs. Even a Mark Trumbo who does not do much else than hit home runs, is a guy I would rather target as he moves into a pitcher friendly park. He won’t steal double digits, but a handful of bags helps mitigate the speed advantage Hosmer has over most first basemen.
In the end, it’s difficult to bag on Hosmer. He contributes across the board, and having guys like that certainly helps. The problem is, I’m not sure it helps as much as we have to pay for it. Drafting a guy like Belt and hoping for a bit of luck in the speed and average department at a much lower cost seems like a less risky option than drafting Hosmer. He’s a good player who can still get better, but I’m not willing to bet on that happening at his price this season.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
One thing I’ve noticed, though anecdotal, is that the ADP rankings on MDC central tend not to mean anything in a real draft. It seems like a run usually hits on 1B and all the rankings end up being “squished” together. The rankings themselves tend to be in similar order, but the later tiers get drafted 2-4 rounds earlier than projected.
Generally I agree though, for the relative value I think Belt has more value this year than Hosmer, but I’d still take Abreu in the 7-8th over Belt in the 8-10th for a traditional 5×5. (I’ve been seeing Hosmer go largely in the 5-6)
i’ve been saying this for a while now. there isnt any real reason to think there’s going to be much of a difference in hrs between belt and hosmer. if they come close to reaching the same amount of PA’s, belt pretty clearly has the advantage. i don’t actually think hosmer is going to outproduce belt this year, at least not by any significant margin.
What makes you think belt has the advantage given equal PAs? Belt’s BABIP is due to drop given that he’s a fly ball hitter. Couple that with a >20% K rate and you should expect something closer to .260. Hosmer, on the other hand, shows more of a ground ball profile with better plate discipline. His true talent is right around .290.
I think the fact that SF has a better offense around Belt will wash out with Hosmer’s higher AVG in terms of R/RBI and that HR and SB are close enough. I just find it highly unlikely that Belt will match Hosmer’s AVG production.
Sorry – I’m talking about AVG in the first paragraph when I say .260 and .290.
Maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part since he’s on my dynasty team, but if you pro-rate his stats from early June (when he appeared to make a genuine adjustment of pulling inside pitches), his 162 game line is something like .320/.380 with 25 hr and 95 rbi. I’m not saying he’ll be able to do that for an entire season, but he did do that for about two thirds of a season last year – in a pretty consistent manner in which he didn’t have a crazy 2-3 week stretch.
This guy is destined to go down as one of the biggest fantasy teases of all time. He looks like he should be special. His minor league numbers all indicated that he would be special, but… his major league numbers have painted a very different picture. He may just be too big and have too big a swing to handle major league pitching. His small runs of success only serve to tease people all the more.
That may be true, but keep in mind that he’s only 24 years old going into this year. Many guys would be just making their major league debut at this age, and he’s already had two pretty solid seasons (and one really crappy one).
But yeah, I agree that he may simply be ‘mediocre’ – hitting anywhere from .275-.290 with 15-20 hrs in a given year, with stretches that lead one to believe he’ll ‘break out’ and do more. I’m not sure if his swing is too ‘big’ however – his contact rate is quite good. I think the major problem is his GB rate remains stubbornly high, which cuts into his power potential. I will say that he seemed to make a noticeable adjustment last year when he turned things around – he actually started pulling inside pitches with authority.
I should add the other elephant in the room with him: even at 25 HRs, he’s barely worth owning in a 10 team league, because there’s no way in the world he’s going to hit for the average you project. Consequently he’s not going to get the OB% you project either. His career AVG/ OB is 272/332. Even if you go for a career-year type of improvement from him you’re looking at something like 310/360. Add 25 homers and 95 RBI’s to that and you have something like the 20th best 1B, which means he’s an adequate 1B/3B or Util/DH, depending on your format. And if you play in a sim league or a league that uses advanced fielding metrics, he’s the worst 1B starter in your league due to his consistently poor fielding ratings and average baserunning. In other words, he’s not really worth the gamble unless you’re in a deep league.
@ Stan. .310/.360/25 HR/95 RBI is only the 20th best 1B?
Can I get some of your stash?
That would probably be good for the 20th best HITTER period.
I dunno, I recall a 1 week stretch from Hosmer in which he literally doubled his HR total on the season. I believe it was I June. I recall it vividly as I was going against him in a H2H that week.
He once had 7 HR’s in a two week span in late June, which I guess is an impressive streak, but nothing too crazy. It actually quadrupled his season output to that point, which doesn’t say much, considering he had 2 HR’s on the season going into that streak.
I guess my point with the consistency thing is that if you look at his monthly splits, his wRC+ is relatively constant, fluctuating between 142 and 130 in that span. It’s not like he did that for a month at the end of the season – he was consistently good for a 4 month span, covering 450+ ab’s.
“He once had 7 HR’s in a two week span in late June, which I guess is an impressive streak, but nothing too crazy. It actually quadrupled his season output to that point, which doesn’t say much, considering he had 2 HR’s on the season going into that streak.”
If you want to extrapolate his statistics, it would be wise to remember this burst and treat it as an outlier. If you look at how infrequently he gets the ball in the air, it would probably be wisest to expect something between 2 and 5 hrs a month. If you draft with those expectations, you’re less likely to overpay and miss out on a more valuable player. It’s just not likely he’ll hit more than 20 hrs in a given year. I mean, look at last year. He has to hit .300 and approach 700 at bats to get to 17.
That was my point though. He got to 17 hr’s last year despite having just 2 hr’s in mid-June. Expecting about 4 hr’s/month isn’t that much of a reach, which would give him 24 by season’s end. That’s about what he was doing for those final 4 months of the season last year after making the aforementioned adjustment. He does need to increase his FB% to reach that, however, and that remains to be seen if he’s that kind of hitter.
Yea. Haven’t made up my mind on whether or not i should draft the guy. If he can squeak out 20, steal 12-15 bags, and hit around .300, then that’d be pretty solid overall, but there’s not much room for error with this guy. it’s basically billy butler plus 10 bags and i know i’m going to have to reach for him if i want to land him.
For a player to hit 25+ HR w/a GB% of >= 50% is rare.
If you are expecting 25 HR from Hosmer you’re looking at the best case scenario.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,6,11,44&season=2013&month=0&season1=2003&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=13852&players=0&sort=6,d
His HR/FB average distance beginning in June of last season (when the supposed adjustment came) was over 300 feet which is fairly impressive. A few more fly balls and he could be a 25HR guy if he comes close to that distance again.
I don’t get this article at all.
I imagine the 8th ranked guy at any position is going to be a bit “expensive” compared to the 5 guys below him…
But hey, if Trumbo’s inability to make contact regularly is what entices you in a 1B… go for it.
He pretty clearly says Belt is the guy he would prefer to target later.
If his plan is to aim for having the worst starting 1B in his league, he’s well on his way!
Quick Side note, Looking to fill out the rest of a new Otto League (This is Fantasy Baseball). Auction Draft, Fangraphs Points, group arbitration $99, draft on 3/28. Email me at garettmarcum@gmail.com
I agree that expecting >20 HRs is probably folly. And I would like to point out for all of those who think his minor league numbers portend a power hitter, by season/level his ISO has only been over .182 once (his 50-game .303 in AA).
Excuse me, over .191.
his 2nd half babip was really high as well.
im with you. i like the guy but would rather wait on 1st base than take him
Keep Hosmer or Kemp in dynasty league with no restrictions
I’d keep Hosmer over Kemp.
Two years ago I had to decide between Hosmer and Goldschmidt. I chose Hosmer. Yuck