Eight Deep Cuts From Tout Wars

As of this writing, we are on pick 430 in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold league. You can follow along with the rationalization of all of me 29 (to date) picks here. Highlights include:

Eaton… yawn.

And

Chooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

There are 14 other owners in the league, all industry giants who know how to run a deep league draft. So let’s shine the spotlight on some of the players going in the late-300s to early-400s. While I can’t prise open their skulls to raid their mind grapes, I can probably puzzle out why certain guys were targeted. Remember, this is an OBP league with no trading or in-season waiver moves and weekly lineups.

25.05 Tyler Beede (Jon Hegglund)

The hard-throwing righty has shown positive growth traits and once again spent the winter overhauling his approach to starting. He’s even trying to evoke Stephen Strasburg in the classic game of “Fringe Player Compares Himself To Star.” I’ll definitely have another Beede-related Bold Prediction.

There’s almost no reason Beede shouldn’t be expected to make at least 20 starts for the Giants. I expect him to easily match the middling output offered by pitchers taken five rounds earlier like teammate Kevin Gausman, Reynaldo Lopez, or Kyle Gibson.

26.06 Jake Fraley (Dr. Roto)

Why wouldn’t Fraley start on that horrific Mariners roster. If he hits at all, he’ll immediately lay claim to a prime piece of lineup real estate. The downside is he looked painfully overmatched in a 41 plate appearance cup o’ joe. His infield fly rate is sky high, and it’s unclear if he can make authoritative contact. On the other hand, if he can scratch out even a .315 OBP, then he’ll likely chip in 15 to 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Not too shabby from pick 396. Not too shabby at all.

26.12 Zach Plesac (Michael A. Stein)

A patron of mine tipped me off on Plesac as somebody with stealthy growth traits. His path to the rotation is wide open, and he should improve upon both his strikeout and walk rates in 2020. He got lucky to post palatable numbers in his 21-start 2019 debut. Regression is a double-edged blade sometimes. He projects to repeat as serviceable.

27.03 Franchy Cordero (Matt Modica)

The squanchiest player in the majors, Cordero has a special combination of power and speed that could make Fraley look like the scrubbiest of scrubs. This is superstar potential baked into an oft-injured, inexperienced package with a tenuous path to playing time. Whilst trying to alleviate their almost painful outfield depth, the Padres somehow managed to add Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham to the list. That’s in addition to Josh Naylor, Wil Myers, a bunch of infielders-turned-outfielders, and a slew of prospects led by Taylor Trammell and Edward Olivares.

Cordero has serious swing-and-miss issues. To get and keep a job, he’ll need to hit the ground running – both at the plate and on the bases.

27.11 Brendan McKay (Jeff Boggis)

This is just hilariously late for a good pitching prospect. I passed him up on multiple occasions because 1. the Rays are dicks to fantasy managers and 2. he has “shoulder stiffness.” But I also took Nate Pearson in the 21st round. If I could do it over again, I’d grab Jon Berti in the 21st (I need MI/CI depth) and McKay in the 27th.

28.03 Jake Arrieta (Craig Mish)

There is a time and place for boring volume in a draft and hold – and that’s around the 27th to 29th rounds. I like Arrieta just a little more than some of the other volume arms. He could be a surprise workhorse is surgery on his elbow unlocks an earlier iteration. He claims he’s getting more extension, and reports from his Spring Training outing were encouraging (terrible command, excellent movement).

29.04 Anibal Sanchez (Michael A. Stein)

All I know is I’m supposed to own all the Anibal shares. I had to take some schlub named James Karinchak two picks later.

Ignore the terrible start to 2019, and Sanchez was once again a reliable late-round stud. The Nationals manage him pretty actively which is code for “he makes short, effective starts.”

29.08 Tyler O’Neill (Alan Harrison)

This is a sort of deeply discounted Joey Gallo without any guarantee of playing time. O’Neill should and will go earlier in daily moves leagues where his fragmented playing time can be more actively managed. For a weekly format, the promise of platoons hurts his value. Perhaps the biggest cause for concern is his high infield fly ball rate (20 percent).

If the pick clicks, he’s a high home run rate cleanup hitter.