Early Ottoneu Pitcher Projections

I highlighted some early ottoneu hitter projections a couple days ago, so today I’m going to take a look at some pitchers with interesting surplus calculator dollar values using early Steamer projections.

SP Chris Sale ($29 FGPts, 3.45 FIP)- Sale wasn’t his usual self in 2016 (3.46 FIP, 3.58 xFIP), and Steamer is basically projecting a repeat of last year. That’s still good enough to make him the 6th best starting pitcher by dollar value, but the 4.99 Pts/IP projection makes Sale look a lot more like Kluber/Carrasco/Cueto/Archer than the Kershaw/Scherzer/Syndergaard group.

SP Lance McCullers ($25 FGPts, $19 SABR, 3.51 FIP)- McCullers is a perfect example of the kind of pitcher that looks better in FanGraphs points league than SABR points league. SABR scoring is predicated almost directly on FIP, while FanGraphs points gives pitchers that strike out a lot of batters and limit hits a boost.

SP David Price ($24 FGPts, 3.44 FIP)- Price was one of the pitchers I was most asked about on last year’s version of the calculator, as he had a $29 value in FGPts that most owners thought was much too low. Price went on to earn about $14 according to my calculation of actual 2016 performances, so I would be careful in assuming Steamer is low on Price yet again.

SP Tyler Skaggs ($21 FGPts, 3.54 FIP)- There were a handful of starting pitchers that jump out with higher projections from Steamer than most owners would expect (Robbie Ray is another example), but none is projected as highly as Skaggs. I’m not entirely sure what Steamer sees in Skaggs that is expecting him to be a top 20 SP on a Pts/IP basis as Skaggs had just a 3.95 FIP/4.25 xFIP in 10 starts last season, though he did pitch extremely well in nine starts in the minor leagues as he made his way back from Tommy John surgery. I think Skaggs is an interesting target, but I would definitely take this dollar value with a grain of salt.

SP Julio Urias ($16 FGPts, 3.59 FIP)- Steamer loves Urias (and fellow Dodger Jose De Leon), and just like Skaggs is projecting him to be a top 20 starting pitcher on a per inning basis. The $16 valuation is coming despite a projection of 130 IP in 2017, which is reasonable given his extreme youth and lack of innings (just 122 IP in ’16 and 80 IP in ’15).

Are there any other pitcher dollar values on the surplus calculator you found surprising? Feel free to leave a comment here and I can answer any questions the best I can.