Early Ottoneu Draft Returns: Over- and Undervalued Players

The calendar has flipped to March and that means regular season baseball is just around the corner. There have been just over 100 completed auction drafts in the Ottoneu universe thus far with the vast majority of leagues drafting over the next few weeks ahead of the early March 18 start date to the regular season. These early drafts present us with a bunch of market data that can help us identify players being overvalued or undervalued based on their rankings and projections. I should note that this data is inclusive of both first-year leagues and existing leagues so price inflation will have some effect on the draft values we see in the data.

Below, you’ll find two tables listing players who have been drafted more than 25 times whose real world auction values are either well below or well above the value Chad or I ranked them at earlier this offseason. First, let’s tackle draft steals.

Just as players were beginning to report to spring training, the Pirates announced that one of their new acquisitions, Spencer Horwitz, had undergone wrist surgery to repair an offseason injury. He’ll likely miss the first few weeks of the season but should be back to full health by the end of April. It’s possible that injury is depressing the market for Horwitz but a $3 average draft cost indicates the market was pretty low on his services to begin with — missing roughly a month of the season shouldn’t have cratered his value this low. Should he return from this wrist injury healthy, the projections see him producing a .344 wOBA as the Pirates everyday first baseman — and his 2B eligibility in Ottoneu boosts his value even further. If I was building my rankings today, I’d probably have him down a tier alongside Chad, but you’re still getting him as a steal if you’re drafting him for $3 today.

I was surprised to see Corey Seager on this list of undervalued players, granted I had him ranked a tier higher than Chad and his market data shows that he’s being valued on par with where Chad ranked him. Seager is either the second or third ranked shortstop, though his lengthy injury history does present some risk. I would be completely happy to roster Seager under $50 and would be ecstatic if I could get him under $40.

First base as a position is in a really weird spot right now. After the first six or seven options, there’s a pretty significant drop off in production and the position sort of plateaus with a bunch of flawed players that seem pretty interchangeable. Both Nathaniel Lowe and Ryan Mountcastle sit in this morass of mediocre first basement which makes it really easy to deflate their draft value — if you miss out on one, there’s another similar option ready to roster.

Across his 11-year career, Jorge Soler finally finds himself in a favorable home ballpark for his brand of right-handed power. Angels Stadium has the best home run park factor among the five cities he’s called home, though I suppose Kauffman Stadium boosts overall offensive output slightly more than the ballpark in Anaheim. Blasting a ton of home runs is a surefire way to rack up a ton of points in Ottoneu leagues and Soler should be among the best in the AL at that one skill. I suppose some of the hesitation stems from his inconsistent track record, but I like his new environment and think he’s flying under the radar a bit.

David Festa has been one of my targets to add towards the end of the draft to round out my starting rotation. An ugly 4.90 ERA hid the fact that he posted a very good 3.76 FIP across his first 13 starts in the big leagues last year and all the projection systems think he should come close to replicating those peripherals again this year. He’s added a sinker to his pitch mix this spring and has continued to flash the swing-and-miss stuff that earned him the callup last season. The only question is whether or not he’ll have a rotation spot locked up out of spring training, but even if he doesn’t, his talent will have him pitching in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

Here’s what I wrote about Trea Turner in my middle infield ranks article:

“Turner is a tricky one to peg. He had the hiccup in 2023 in his first season in Philadelphia and then rebounded a bit in ‘24 thanks to a 20 point increase in his BABIP. Worryingly, his power output fell quite a bit and his contact quality wasn’t as sterling as it’s been in the past. The track record speaks for itself, but he just hasn’t been the same player as before since joining the Phillies.”

I’m still pretty hesitant to roster him for any kind of premium, but it’s clear that other Ottoneu players just don’t hold that same view. His average draft value is just four dollars cheaper than Seager but I’d much rather have the latter if I’m paying anywhere near $40 for a shortstop.

Reader, I will admit that I paid $31 for Roki Sasaki in the FanGraphs Staff League draft in early February, knowing full well that it was probably an overpay. Chalk this one up to the shiny new toy effect and accept the fact that you’ll have to really open up the wallet to roster Sasaki during his first season in the big leagues.

I’ve already written up why I’m down on Aaron Nola, but I’ll just emphasize that his reputation as a front-line ace and the actual pts/IP production he provides in Ottoneu do not align very well. For Burnes, I’m concerned that his struggles for half the season last year weren’t just a blip but a portent for his eventual decline. I’m sure I’ll regret fading him, but his projections in Arizona aren’t that rosy and he’s had two straight seasons where his pts/IP sat right around five. In Ottoneu, you’d really like to see your staff ace sit about half a point higher per IP if you’re investing over $30 to roster them.

I will admit that I probably ranked Spencer Arrighetti lower than I should have. I knew that his second half surge was phenomenal, but I didn’t do enough research into why it was so good. He’s got a pair of excellent breaking balls in his curveball and sweeper to pair with a good fastball. Once he got his legs under him and made the necessary adjustments to the big leagues, he cruised through his final 14 starts. Placing him in that $6-$9 tier was a good call from Chad and I’d probably have him there too if I was redoing my rankings today.