Early 2025 Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes — A Review

The preseason and early season reviews continue! Today, I’m going to review the early starting pitcher velocity changes to find out if the gainers held onto their gains and if the decliners suffered their losses all year. Since we know that fastball velocity positively correlates with strikeout rate, I’ve included the change from 2024 to 2025 as well to see if both moved in the same direction.

Let’s start with the early FA (four-seam fastball) velocity gainers.

Holy guacamole, these were excellent results! Of the nine starting pitchers that made the list, eight of them finished the season with a velocity gain (of at least 0.5 MPH, to boot) and the same number also increased their strikeout rate, many of them significantly so.

Hunter Greene came out on fire to begin the season, and incredibly, he held onto nearly all his gains the rest of the season, finishing with an average velocity just under 100 MPH. The increased velocity helped him stave off regression after last year’s fortunate run, as he pumped his strikeout rate back above 30% to a new career high. He did miss time to injury though and you have to wonder how his arm is going to hold up at this velocity, while also throwing a slider over 30% of the time. Right now, this is an elite skill set, but I would probably be nervous to pay full price next season.

Hunter Brown couldn’t quite hold onto his early season velocity gain, but it didn’t matter all that much, as he still posted a career best strikeout rate, en route to the second lowest ERA in the American League. What’s weird is that he still doesn’t miss the rate of bats you would expect (barely above average SwStk%), while his CSW% is also only marginally above average. Still, it’s a solid skill set when combined with a lower than average walk rate and a groundball tilt. That said, he might be overvalued next year given his SIERA/xERA overperformance.

Jesús Luzardo’s velocity bounced back after a dip to his lowest career mark back in 2024, so this wasn’t a new level he hadn’t reached before. That said, it triggered a complete rebound from his disastrous 2024, drive by a collapse in strikeout rate, inflating his ERA all the way up to 5.00. Both SIERA and xERA suggests he deserved better fortune so it’s possible he’ll still come at a reasonable price next year. Unless his velocity suddenly dips again, I expect to see a repeat of these underlying skills.

Gosh, Jack Leiter is such an enigma. Despite fantastic stuff, as per our two pitch models, and the velocity bump, he simply hasn’t translated it into strikeouts. Though his SwStk% was around league average this year, which is a surprise in itself, his CStr% is actually more problematic, consistently sitting well below average. That has likely cost him a higher strikeout rate moreso than the lower whiff rate than expected. Since his control remains iffy and he’s an extreme flyball guy, he’s going to continue being at risk for blow ups. Luckily, good fortune this year allowed him to post a sub-4.00 ERA.

He’s such a tough one to project because you have to imagine his strikeout rate surges, or at least has the potential to, which could help offset luck regression. But if it doesn’t, he could be an easy bust call. It’ll really come down to where he’s valued, but it’s hard to believe he’ll come at the right price for me to roster.

It’s too bad Max Meyer got hurt, limiting him to just 64.2 innings. The velocity jump resulted in a nice increase in strikeout rate, while he maintained the groundball title and above average control. He finished with an ugly 4.73 ERA, and SIERA and xERA dramatically disagree on what he deserved. Whatever you believe, a healthy Meyer in 2026 could turn into a big profit generator if he maintains his improved stuff.

As a Matthew Boyd owner in my shallow mixed league from auction day, I was super excited about his velocity jump. All season I expected a strikeout rate spike, but it never happened. Despite increasing his velocity even more the rest of the way, he ended up posting his lowest strikeout rate over a 100+ inning season since 2017. That’s really surprising considering this was a career best fastball velocity. It wasn’t all bad, of course, has he ended up posting the best ERA of his career over a full season, thanks to his lowest ever walk rate and some good fortune. His ERA is almost surely rising next year, but I have to think his strikeout rate rebounds somewhat to offset some of the regression.

Freddy Peralta’s fastball velocity jumped to a new high this year, but it barely impacted his strikeout rate, which did increase, but still fell below his 2021 and 2023 peak seasons. A career best ERA is going to really increase his price next season, but the ERA estimators don’t think he pitched all that differently than he has in recent years. That means he’s highly unlikely to end up on any of my rosters.

Last year, Kevin Gausman’s fastball velocity declined to its lowest since 2019. It coincided with his lowest strikeout rate since 2018. This year, he enjoyed a velocity rebound early, which looked like it could trigger a strong strikeout rate rebound. He did hold onto most of those early velocity gains, and his strikeout rate did jump. However, he still finished far below his 2020 to 2023 peak years. Without the strikeouts, he loses a big chunk of his value and the downside is far greater than it once was.

Jameson Taillon was the only name on this list who gave up all of his early velocity gains, finishing with an identical mark to last year. His strikeout rate did inch up, but that wasn’t exactly something to celebrate as it was coming off such a low base. This is now the second season in a row he finished with a sub-20% strikeout rate. I have no idea how he keeps managing a sub-4.00 ERA with so few strikeout rates and an extreme flyball tendency. Suffice it to say, this is not the skill set I want anywhere near my 2026 fantasy teams’ rosters.

Let’s now move on to the early fastball velocity decliners.

Interesting. The results here weren’t as clear cut as for the gainers. Though, four of the five early velocity decliners did end the season with a loss, but only two of them suffered a strikeout rate decline, while the other three actually gained.

Carlos Rodón suffered a velocity loss and then posted his worst strikeout rate over a full season since 2018, though it was only down marginally from 2025. It didn’t actually matter for his results though, even with a walk rate spike, as an MLB-best .228 BABIP led to an excellent 3.09 ERA. Like some other names on the gainers list, I’m curious to see how he’s valued next year, as it’s rare I end up rostering a major SIERA overperformer.

Amazingly, Joe Ryan finished with only a small decrease in fastball velocity, as he averaged 93.7 MPH with his fastball the rest of the way, up significantly from the 92.5 MPH he averaged during his first two starts. Though that’s a loss from 2024, I’d argue it actually qualifies as pretty good news, since his velocity surged in 2024, so he held onto most of those gains in 2025. The underlying skills have remained pretty consistent and I think the improved velocity reduces his risk and gives him a better chance to maintain a high-20% strikeout rate.

Nathan Eovaldi sat at a lower velocity level all year, but still somehow managed to post an increased strikeout rate to a career high mark over a full season. I don’t know how the 35-year-old did it, but it resulted in a microscopic 1.73 ERA! Obviously, great fortune was involved, as both ERA estimators came in at just over 3.00, but even those estimators tell us this was his best season yet. He’ll be 36 years old next year and his health has been problematic. In fact, he has only started 30+ games twice in his entire career. Given his age and injury history combined with a career year, he’s another name that definitely won’t end up on my roster after auction/draft day.

Props to Chris Sale for shaking off the early season velocity loss and ending up with an identical mark to 2024. The 36-year-old even managed to post a second straight 30%+ strikeout rate, so incredibly, he remains in vintage form. There’s nothing here that suggests an imminent decline, aside from the typical advancing age and injury history. Since his price always seems to account for those risks, he might actually be a reasonable buy among top tier starters.

Let’s now move on to sinkers, beginning with the gainer.

Yeahhhh, there was only one sinker velocity gainer early on, and it’s the same name that appeared near the top of the four-seam fastball list. It’s weird that Hunter Brown gained 0.6 MPH with his four-seamer, but barely increased his sinker velocity.

All four of these names failed to rebound in the velocity department, finishing with an average sinker velocity below their 2024 marks. However, just one of them suffered a strikeout rate decline, though that was a meaningful decline.

A Spring Training velocity decline from Aaron Nola already had spooked me out of even considering drafting him, and sure enough, it carried over into the regular season. This ended up being a forgettable year, marred by injury and an inflated 6.01 ERA. Despite the velocity decline, his strikeout rate was identical to 2024. I want to see how his velocity looks during Spring Training next year, but assuming it doesn’t fall any further, I think he’s an obvious rebound candidate. Certainly not to his peak low-3.00 ERA days, but he still owns the skills for a sub-4.00 ERA and he could come far cheaper than in previous seasons.

Luis Castillo’s velocity, both four-seam and sinker, declined for the third straight season, resulting in another dip in strikeout rate, this time to the lowest of his career. And yet, he still managed to post an ERA almost identical to his career average! He looks like an easy bust call for 2026 as at some point, his ERA is going to be hampered by the reduced velocity and drop in strikeout rate. That said, velocity rebounds do occur and given his history, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that his underlying skills return. I’m not willing to pay the likely cost though in the hopes that does happen.

This was the lowest sinker velocity Chris Bassitt has ever averaged, and yet his strikeout rate remained in the tightest of ranges between 22.2% and 22.6% since 2022. He has been a constant ERA estimator overperformer, so I wonder what he has been doing to ensure that continues. Heading into his age 37 and with a middling strikeout rate, I couldn’t bring myself to keep betting on that SIERA and xERA overperformance, so he, too, won’t be ending up on any of my teams.

When you’re averaging over 97 MPH with your sinker, I guess it’s okay when José Soriano loses 0.5 MPH on it, as it still ranks among the elite in velocity. He increased his velocity over the rest of the season after a bigger loss in his first two starts, and his strikeout rate actually increased slightly. It’s still crazy knowing his velocity and that it generated just a 21% strikeout rate. I think he’s definitely due for a strikeout rate spike, and when combined with his over 60% GB%, I really like the skill set. Obviously, there’s room for control improvement, but that’s not absolutely required if he could boost the strikeout rate. Coming off a 4.26 ERA instead of the 3.42 he did heading into this season should make him even cheaper to roster.

Finally, we move onto the cutter (FC), starting with the gainer.

Like the sinker gainer, we only had one cutter gainer as well. Unfortunately, Davis Martin was unable to maintain the early gain, as he ended up finishing with an average velocity 0.8 MPH lower than in 2024. That’s kind of weird though because his four-seam velocity actually increased by 0.3 MPH! His strikeout rate fell back below 20% and the skill set looks rather poor. This is not a pitcher I want even in AL-Only leagues.

Garrett Crochet lost velocity on all his pitches this season, which you might worry would be alarming for his results. Nope, his ERA actually dropped by nearly a run! While his strikeout rate did decline by a meaningful degree, it still remained above 30%, as it was coming off a super high base. Furthermore, his luck did a complete 180, as his BABIP went from inflated in 2024 to just below league average this year, while his LOB% skyrocketed from just above league average last year to the second highest mark in baseball. Funny enough, both ERA estimators suggest he deserved fairly similar results both years. I would still worry about his innings and this is your reminder that he underwent TJ surgery that cost him the 2022 season. But I do think he could maintain a strikeout rate around 30% and continue as an elite performer when healthy.

Taj Bradley’s four-seam velocity was down just 0.2 MPH on the year, which wouldn’t raise any red flags, but the cutter was down more. Whether it was the drop in cutter velocity, something else, or a combination of factors, his strikeout rate plunged. Perhaps this was his strikeout rate finishing closer to where it should given his mediocre CSW%, which has been held down by a low CStr%, similar to Leiter discussed earlier. The former 36th best prospect overall has been a major disappointment in his 385.1 innings, so we’ll have to see if a full season with the Twins turns things around for him. Personally, I would think that if the Rays couldn’t get him to reach his potential, then it’s going to be a challenge for another organization.

Chris Bassitt appears again, reminding us that velocity loss doesn’t always mean disappointing season!