Early 2025 Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes

One of the few metrics I monitor closely during spring training is pitcher velocity. Process is significantly more important than results in March and could hint at the need to update projections to account for changes we see. Of course, Spring velocity changes don’t always carry over to the regular season. Often times we see a pitcher enjoy a velocity spike and fail to hold onto it when the regular season begins, or suffer a loss of velocity, but gain it right back. So now with a couple of starts in the books, let’s find out who has actually gained and lost velocity compared to last year so far.

It’s easiest to pick a pitch, like the fastball, to compare season-to-season velocity changes. However, since we measure multiple fastballs and pitchers typically use of one or the other as their primary pitch, we can’t just compare all fastballs from one season to the next. Plus, the average is going to be affected by any pitch mix changes, particularly if a pitcher throws different fastballs and different speeds and suddenly starts throwing the higher or lower velocity version more.

With that being said, I’m going to run down the gains and losses for the four-seam fastball (FA), the sinker (SI), and the cutter (FC), separately. I typically get more excited by gains than worried about losses, as velocity tends to creep up as the season progresses.

My gosh, what’s up with being named Hunter this season?! Hunter Greene enjoyed the breakout we all anticipated last year, though it wasn’t exactly skills-backed, as he relied on the trio of a super low BABIP and HR/FB rate, and inflated LOB% to post a sub-3.00 ERA. He has always been a hard-thrower, but his four-seam velocity dipped for two straight seasons after averaging 98.9 MPH during his 2022 debut.

This season, his velocity hasn’t just rebounded after last year’s decline, but is now 0.7 MPH higher than his peak during that first season. He has also thrown the pitch even more frequently, cutting his slider usage for the third straight season. So far, it’s done wonders for his strikeout rate, as his fastball has generated an absurd 15.35 SwStk%, while his lesser used slider has posted an incredible 31.9% mark. Neither of those marks are likely to last, but this increased velocity may very well offset the regression I expected after last year’s apparent good fortune.

After an awful April, Hunter Brown was fantastic the rest of the way last year, en route to a skills-supported breakout. Both his four-seamer and sinker are at the highest velocity we have recorded, which has pushed his skill set into elite territory. He’s now essentially striking out hitters or coaxing a ground ball, which is the ideal scenario.

Jesús Luzardo flashed increased spring velocity, so it’s great to see that carry over to the regular season. Injury limited him to just 66.2 innings last year and he showed the worst velocity of his MLB career. Not only has his velocity rebounded, but it’s just above his previous career best so far, suggesting he’s both healthy again and better than ever. He’s also throwing his slider more than ever before, which has been his best whiff pitch. Forget last year happened, and I’ll take the over on his strikeout rate projections.

The Rangers’ ninth best prospect, Jack Leiter endured a poor debut last year, but still threw hard, giving us reason for optimism. He’s now throwing even harder than he ever has and totally changed his pitch mix, nearly cutting his four-seam usage in half and throwing a sinker instead. The results have been pretty so far, but his consistently low called strike rate and risk of a double digit walk rate still would make me nervous starting him in any particular game.

Max Meyer also showed increased velocity during the spring, making him a popular breakout pick. He hasn’t disappointed, maintaining a velocity more than a mile per hour over his mark last season. The increased velocity has likely been behind the jump in SwStk%, which paired with good control and a ground ball tilt, could make him one of the bargains of draft season.

It’s always fun to see a veteran like Matthew Boyd appear on a velocity gainer list, and this is actually the hardest he has ever thrown. HIs previous career high four-seam velocity stands at 92.6 MPH. Interestingly, none of his other pitches are at career best velocities, though his slider is at its highest since 2017. However, even with the fastball velocity gain, he hasn’t benefited. His SwStk% is down in single digits after posting double digit marks every year since 2017, with a CSW% of just 25.4%. You still have to be optimistic the whiffs will increase though, but his early results aren’t making me feel the need to auto-start him each week in my 12-team mixed league.

Back in 2023, Freddy Peralta’s velocity took a step up above 94 MPH. Two years later, it has taken yet another step up above 95 MPH for the first time in his career. This is from a guy who averaged just 90.7 MPH with his four-seamer during his 2018 debut! So far, so good here, as his SwStk% sits at a career high and elite 16.8%, while his strikeout rate is back above 30% after last year’s dip below it.

After dealing with shoulder issues during the spring last year, Kevin Gausman suffered a velocity dip, but he has fully rebounded so far this year. Unfortunately, that hasn’t helped his swing and miss ability at all, as his SwStk% sits at an ugly 7.1% and CSW% a tiny 18.5%. While the fastball now sports a double digit SwStk%, a nice jump from recent seasons, his splitter has been shockingly easy to make contact with. The once elite pitch sports an impossibly low 3.4% SwStk%, which is hard to believe given the pitch’s career mark of 22.2%. I have no idea what’s going on here, but Gausman without his splitter is one I might leave in the free agent pool.

Like Gasuman, Jameson Taillon only makes this list because of a velocity loss last year. So it’s nice to see the rebound, but it hasn’t come all the way up, as this would still represent the second lowest mark of his career. I’m not a fan.

The last time Carlos Rodón averaged less than 95 MPH with his fastball, let alone 94 MPH, was in 2020. His slider and changeup still remain strong and great whiff pitches, but holy cow, that four-seamer’s SwStk% is down to just 2.9%, versus a 9.6% career mark. This is going to be something to monitor moving forward.

Some of Osvaldo Bido’s loss here is likely due to getting relief innings in last year, upping his average velocity. But someone without strong control can’t afford to lose such velocity, especially given he wasn’t a great strikeout guy to begin with. Oh, and a 59.3% FB% in that new home park is scary.

I was worried about Joe Ryan when he lost velocity during the Spring, but he’s actually right down to where he was before last year’s spike. He’s actually a bit higher, so all this suggests right now is that last year’s surge wasn’t sustainable for whatever reason. Of course, last year’s increased velocity didn’t result in a higher strikeout or SwStk% rate, so I wouldn’t be too concerned that he’s back down again.

I would worry when a 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi suffers a meaningful drop in fastball velocity after throwing 95+ the last three seasons. He’s offset the drop in velocity by throwing the pitch less in favor of his curveball, and he’s been magnificent so far. Since he only managed a 22%-24% strikeout rate throwing 95+ the last three seasons, we’ll see if the pitch mix change could help offset the velocity decline and maintain that strikeout rate range or better.

Chris Sale’s velocity has fluctuated in recent years, likely correlating with the health of his arm. At age 36, it’s not too shocking that his velocity has declined after rebounding last year. He’s actually throwing his slider more than ever before, which is a jump from last year’s career high usage. I have no idea how that elbow could handle it. There’s little chance he repeats last year’s 30%+ strikeout rate, but he should still be a near-elite arm for as long as he remains off the IL.

Hunter Brown appears once again and is the only name with a sinker velocity surge worth calling out.

We saw decreased velocity from Aaron Nola during the Spring and it’s carried over to the regular season so far. Since peaking in 2020, his strikeout and SwStk% rates have declined every single season, which is a scary trend when you’re now trying to reverse it, but suffering a velocity loss.

Luis Castillo is in the same camp as Nola, as another big name who was throwing softer during Spring. This comes after he already lost velocity last year, meaning he’s now down 1.8 MPH compared to 2023 and 2.6 MPH versus 2022. The velocity loss seems to clearly be affecting his results, as his strikeout rate has cratered to below 20% and SwStk% also sits at a career low. While his ERA still looks shiny at 3.00, he looks like a prime trade candidate.

Chris Bassitt’s velocity is always down at the beginning of the year, but we saw him only down a couple of ticks during his first game. It was his second start at just 90.8 MPH that’s driving the drop in season average so far, so it’s anyone’s guess which Bassitt shows up during his next start. With just two sub-4.00 SIERA marks over his entire career, I’ve never been interested in him to begin with, as he has relied on the three luck metrics to outperform and there’s no telling when/if he loses the skills that have allowed him to do that.

It’s probably still okay that José Soriano is averaging 96.8 MPH with his sinker, because that’s still a hard pitch and extremely difficult to elevate. He has thrown his slider more at the expense of his knuckle curve and it’s been a good trade so far as his slider has recorded an insane 43.5% SwStk%. He’s already an elite ground ball guy, so if he could add increased strikeout potential, he’s essentially Framber Valdez with a big weaker control.

Davis Martin isn’t a real velocity gainer, as his four-seam velocity is actually down, but the cutter is up, which is odd. Also interesting is his slider is unchanged, but his changeup is up 1.3 MPH. None of this has mattered so far, as he sports a microscopic 5.6% SwStk% right now and should be limited to Chicago White Sox-only leagues.

How does Garrett Crochet follow up that dream season?! Welp, his four-seamer is down 0.9 MPH, while the cutter is down 1.5 MPH. The velocity losses are likely part to blame for his drop in SwStk% so far, but then again, it’s not easy to repeat a 16.2% SwStk%! I’m just curious to see how many innings he could throw after recording 121 more innings last year versus the year before.

More weirdness with Taj Bradley, as all of his none-cutters are sporting increased velocity, but his cutter is down. The move to the Yankee Stadium clone can’t be good for a fly ball pitcher who has struggled with his HR/FB rate the last two seasons. His strikeout rate should be nice though.

Chris Bassitt and his multitude of pitches says hi again!