Early 2025 Hitter maxEV Gainers — A Review

At the beginning of April, I took a super early look at hitter maxEV gainers. Obviously, a hitter had all season to record that maximum exit velocity, so a lower maxEV than the previous year at the time was not a cause for concern. However, if a hitter had already posted a meaningfully higher maxEV than the previous season, did that turn out to be an early indicator of a power breakout? Let’s review the names and find out.

As a reminder, this list included all hitters who had already increased their maxEV compared to the previous season, even if it was only by a marginal amount. It’s possible that some of these names at the bottom of the list didn’t hit a ball any harder over the rest of the season and therefore finished with only a small maxEV increase, which wouldn’t necessarily signal a potential breakout.

Out of the 15 names that had already increased their maxEV after just a couple of games, nine of them ended up posting a higher ISO on the season compared to 2024 and eight a higher HR/FB rate. That percentage isn’t super high, but eight of these names had only increased their maxEV by under one mile per hour at that point, which doesn’t seem significant enough to believe a huge power breakout is imminent. So I think the hit rate is pretty fair, though obviously a more exhaustive analysis would be needed to determine if early season maxEV gainers do enjoy power spikes at a higher rate.

Not only had Corbin Carroll already recorded a massive increase in maxEV only a couple of games into the season, but he actually upped his maxEV by another 0.1 MPH over the rest of the season. Sure enough, that coincided with a surge in HardHit% and a doubling of his Barrel%, en route to his highest HR/FB rate over a full season and easily a career best ISO. He paired all that with a jump in FB%, pushing his home run total above 30 for the first time. It led to his first 30/30 season. I’m actually surprised these elite Statcast numbers only led to a 16.5% HR/FB rate, and he even posted a slightly above average fly ball Pull%, so that wasn’t the issue. If he manages to maintain those Statcast metrics, I think there’s more HR/FB rate upside to come.

Gosh, Ryan Mountcastle keeps teasing us with strong Statcast power metrics, but somehow, they just aren’t translating into production. How on Earth did he post the Statcast metrics he did this year, but end up with a single digit HR/FB rate and .117 ISO?! He definitely needs to pull more of his fly balls, but even at his level, I feel like he deserves better. A change of scenery might do him some good.

Would you have ever guessed that Brice Turang would hit a ball over 110 MPH and pump his HardHit% up from sub-30% in 2023 and 2024 all the way up to 47.4% in 2025?! That’s a massive spike. He still managed just a .147 ISO though and it’s surprising to see the lack of triples given his speed. Sadly, the extra power coincided with a halving of his stolen base total so he didn’t gain as much fantasy value as you might have expected if you knew he enjoyed a power surge. It’s anyone’s guess which direction his home runs and steals move next year.

Trevor Story found the fountain of youth! He recorded his most PAs since 2019 and his power rebounded. The maxEV increase, though, wasn’t real, as it was compared to just 94 at-bats in an injury-shortened 2024 season. The real shock here was 31 steals, which marked a career high. Who’s buying him in 2026 at a health and rebound inflated price?!

Props to anyone who thought Otto Lopez would suddenly become fantasy relevant! It was a very solid fantasy season, though came with a sub-.300 wOBA. I don’t see any power upside, but the total skills package here is fairly good, with a low strikeout rate, a groundball approach, some power, and some speed. He’s a pretty safe play in deep mixed and NL-Only league it would appear, though it doesn’t take a lot for guys who do a little of everything to become guys who do absolutely nothing.

Xander Bogaerts never hit a ball harder than he did to make this initial list and although his ISO rebounded ever so slightly, his HR/FB rate actually dropped to its lowest since 2017. It’s pretty surprising to look at his Barrel% history and realize he has never posted a double digit mark. His maxEV numbers have always been above 110 MPH, but his HardHit% is around league average, so that matches with HR/FB rate and ISO career marks floating around league average too. Luckily, he swiped a career best 20 bases, but did little else. I feel like he still has the name to feel comfortable with him as a starter in shallow leagues, but realistically, he’s not someone you should feel good about leaving your draft with.

Ryan O’Hearn also failed to hit a ball any harder than he did over the first couple of games, but oddly, his ISO actually fell slightly on the season, despite a jump in HR/FB rate back into double digits. After disappointing for years with the Royals, he has found a nice little career for himself. I’m actually surprised the power has sat at this mediocre level as he had posted some much better numbers in the minors.

Brandon Lowe posted an even higher maxEV at some point over the remainder of the season, ultimately gaining 1.6 MPH for the year, which was the second highest mark of his career. Like O’Hearn, he weirdly suffered a loss of ISO, but his HR/FB rate spiked back over 20% for the first time since 2021. Like Story, he’ll be an interesting draft day name as the oft-injured platoon bat is coming off the second best fantasy season of his career.

Nolan Arenado did increase his maxEV as the year progressed, but it still fell well short of previous seasons. Shockingly, his Barrel% has finished below 4% for the past two seasons. His 2025 mark was barely better than teammate Victor Scott II! It still shouldn’t take much to get back to a double digit HR/FB rate and with his low strikeout rate and fly ball tendency, could easily bring him back to 20 home runs. After the worst offensive season of his career, he’ll probably come cheap enough to actually make him a profit candidate in NL-Only leagues.

I can’t comprehend how Jasson Domínguez’s power was non-existent this season, despite an elite 49.6% HardHit% and maxEV over 110 MPH. But hey, I’ll happily take whatever discount I could get in 2026 draft and auctions! Obviously, the hope is that he does enter the season with a regular job and he avoids an extended slump that results in a cut to his playing time. Since he’s already got the steals, there’s some downside protection here.

It’s crazy to see that Eugenio Suárez posted a career best maxEV during his age 33 season, and it was quite a jump, as he actually posted a significantly higher mark over the rest of the season than the mark that got him on this list to begin with. After sitting between 111 and 112 MPH of maxEVn every season since 2020, he broke out for a 113.8 MPH mark, en route to his highest HR/FB rate and ISO since 2019 and second highest of his career. I’m not exactly thrilled about rostering a 34-year-old coming off one of his best fantasy seasons, but we’ll see where he ends up signing.

Randy Arozarena ended up finishing with a maxEV just 0.2 MPH higher than last year, meaning he did not hit a single ball harder than he did after the first couple of games. Still, he posted a career best HardHit%, his second highest Barrel% and HR/FB rate, and highest ISO, so it ended up being a strong performance anyway. Though he was a batting average drain again, he was excellent everywhere else and a return to the 30-steal plateau boosted his fantasy value.