Early 2025 Hitter Average Bat Speed Risers and Fallers — A Review

At the end of March, I dove into the hitter average bat speed risers and fallers. I realized afterward that although the metric stabilizes rather quickly, it was still simply too early to conclude anything. So I then discussed risers and fallers again with two posts back-to-back in mid-May. Let’s find out if these hitters maintained their mid-May levels, and if so, if it impacted their performance in the same direction as the bat speed change.

Let’s begin with the risers.

Out of the 16 hitters who had increased their average bat speed the most in mid-May, every single one of them finished the season with a higher average bat speed than in 2024. Furthermore, 11 of the hitters enjoyed wOBA increases, while just four suffered declines, and one was essentially unchanged. Though this is far from an exhaustive study, this looks like a pretty good confirmation of the importance of bat speed on performance.

Though Nolan Schanuel topped the gainers list in mid-May and managed to finish the season with only a slightly lower gain compared to 2024, his average bat speed remains painfully low. It’s unfortunate because his plate discipline skills are superb, he increased his FB% and his maxEV surged, so it’s the type of profile many will be predicting a breakout for in the coming seasons. But he’s got a long way to go with his bat speed before any semblance of power shows up, which is going to be required to achieve that elusive breakout.

Brice Turang easily gained the most bat speed by the end of the year of anyone on this list. Sure enough, he experience a true breakout, with his wOBA skyrocketing from .294 to .346, while his power spiked as well. It’s unfortunate, his steals were cut in half, so fantasy owners may not have even cared about the extra power, but at least he won’t have to worry about losing his job as a weak hitter anymore.

Despite posting the second highest increase in bat speed on this list, Anthony Volpe recorded a nearly identical wOBA as his weak 2024. His power did rebound and his ISO even set a new career high, and that’s probably more indicative of how that increased bat speed helped. Most of his poor performance was due to a career low BABIP and increased strikeout rate. What’s bizarre is that he went from strong defender at shortstop in 2024 to poor defender. If he doesn’t rebound defensively and continues to post a sub-.300 wOBA, he should be at risk of losing his starting job, though perhaps he’s too young to give up on already.

Jorge Polanco’s early bat speed gains was the foreshadowing of a rebound season. He ended up posting his highest wOBA since 2019 and the highest wRC+ of his career. Though a lot of the rebound stemmed from a significant reduction in strikeout rate back, his power was back at peak levels as well, as his ISO jumped to the second highest mark of his career.

I was so sure of a major Vinnie Pasquantino breakout when I saw these early bat speed gains, but sadly, he gave back most of his gains over the rest of the season. He did increase his wOBA, but only marginally, which would hardly be enough to consider it a major breakout. That said, he did hit 32 home runs, a big jump over his 2024 total, as his HR/FB rate spiked and he recorded over 100 more PAs. I still expect more here, and while his home park has held back his home run power a bit, it’s not obvious what else has capped his HR/FB rate.

Ben Rice! He lost nearly a point of average bat speed by year end, but a two point gain was plenty good and resulted in a huge breakout. I love the skills here and Statcast thinks he actually deserved significantly better. The platoon risk remains, depending on whether you think the Yankees will only look at his results against lefties in 2025 or also include his much weaker 2024 to increase the sample size. But when he’s on the field, nothing here looks like a fluke.

Brett Baty’s power has returned! Even though he couldn’t hold onto his bigger gain from mid-May, his bat speed is still plenty good. Unfortunately, he hits a head-scratchingly high rate of grounders, reducing his FB%, and hampering his power output. He’ll need to adjust his swing to deliver the type of power he’s capable of.

Man, can someone explain to me what on Earth has happened to Nolan Jones?! Even with improved bat speed, he was even worse than last year. His 2023 Rockies performance wasn’t even Coors inflated as he posted near identical wOBA marks at home and the road. His power has completely disappeared, even though his HardHit% and maxEV both remain strong. His flyball Pull% is definitely below average, but not egregiously so to explain the single digit HR/FB rate. I’m not quite ready to give up on him, particularly in OBP formats.

This was a nice little fantasy season for Jordan Beck, though it wasn’t nearly as good in real baseball as he posted just a 90 wRC+. I think he has significant upside from the 12.2% HR/FB rate he posted, but like Jones above, he could afford to pull more of his flies. He was below average defensively, so his job isn’t the most secure, especially given the constant bizarre roster decisions the Rockies make.

Look at Addison Barger’s average bat speed! His 2025 full season mark is highest on this list and helped fuel a solid breakout with a .211 ISO. I think there’s upside for more power as his Statcast metrics are elite. He barely got a chance against lefties and when he did, posted just a .267 wOBA, so he’s likely to be stuck in a platoon role again, hampering his counting stats.

Let’s move on now to the fallers.

Out of the 10 names on this list, every single one of them finished the season with a lower average bat speed compared to 2024. Seven of them suffered a decline in wOBA as well.

Jurickson Profar got a late start to the season due to a PED suspension and then returned with diminished bat speed. However, his bat speed did improve significantly the rest of the year, as his mid-May mark really just comprised four games at the beginning of the season. He couldn’t quite repeat the best offensive season of his career in 2024, but he still hit pretty darn well, enjoying the second best season of his career.

After a career best power performance in 2024, Josh Naylor’s bat speed was down all season by a meaningful degree, and his ISO and HR/FB rate fell to their lowest marks over a full season. However, a reduced strikeout rate and second highest BABIP of his career resulted in his second highest wOBA and highest wRC+. It’ll be fun to see where he’s valued next year after shockingly stealing 30 bases and of course it’ll partly depend on where he signs.

After a slow start in the bad speed department, Francisco Lindor picked it up the rest of the way, though still fell well short of last year. It didn’t really matter though as he enjoyed an almost identical fantasy season to 2024 and was nearly as strong offensively. It’s interesting that he has suddenly been around 30 steals a season over the last three seasons, beginning at age 29. I thought speed was the skill of the young! A drop in steals due to age is the only real risk here.

Amazingly, Juan Soto’s bat speed decline remained all season long, but it didn’t stop him from enjoying his typical Hall of Fame level offensive performance. He posted his highest HR/FB rate over a full season, third highest ISO, and second highest xwOBA over a full season. The second lowest BABIP of his career hurt him and kept his wOBA sub-.400. He also did something he had never done before – steal more than 12 bases! In fact, he stole a ridiculous 38 bases, making it a fun debate as to whose stolen base total was more surprising between he and Naylor. He was already a top pick so those bonus steals are unlikely to affect his draft cost next year.

Mark Vientos was much better after the first month and a half bat speed slump, but he couldn’t avoid ending up as a major disappointment. That power output should have been significantly higher given the Statcast metrics and he even improved his strikeout rate, though with a barely reduced SwStk%, I’m not sure how repeatable that is. Look for a HR/FB rate rebound, at least to his 2023 level, next year.

It was mind-boggling that Javier Báez won a starting spot in the All-Star Game at the time, and it was even funnier looking back after his offense crashed in the second half (.235 wOBA with a 0.7% walk rate!) and he lost a starting role. How often does an All-Star starter actually lose his job over the remainder of the season? His bat speed is still solid, so I’m not sure what happened to his pre-2022 power.

I guess Jasson Domínguez’s loss of bat speed early on should have rung the alarm bells, though he did get his season mark back up a bit after an improved rest of season. That seemingly didn’t matter, as he finished with a shockingly low 9.7% HR/FB rate and .131 ISO, despite strong HardHit% and maxEV marks. He still managed to steal 23 bases, so I’m really curious how he’ll be valued next season. Assuming he’ll have a starting job, I’ll probably be in on him at a hopefully reduced, post-hype price.

Mike Trout lost bat speed and then posted the worst offensive season of his career. A lot of that though was driven by a surprising spike in strikeout rate, which was really bizarre condiering his SwStk% was actually a bit better than the league average. The skills here still look good and he’s a near lock to get that strikeout rate back under 30%. As usual, he’s a better choice in shallow leagues where replacement level is higher for his inevitable injury, but he also remains a much stronger OBP format play.