Draft Order: The Second Basemen

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)

Utley is the clear winner at this position, both for his individual potential and for the offensive protection that he has around him in the Phillies lineup. He has 25-30 homer potential and he is one of the few second basemen that could produce both 100 runs scored and RBI. His 23 steals were the icing on the cake in ’09 but don’t count on him breaking the 20-mark again.

Kinsler is another second baseman that benefits from a good hitting environment, and a solid lineup. He hit just .253 in ’09 but he produced a 30-30 season and is just 27 years old. Don’t be shocked if he produces his first 100 RBI season in 2010. Roberts is starting to get a little gray around the edges but he’s also very consistent and has appeared in 155+ games for three straight seasons. Of concern, though, is the dwindling stolen base totals from 50 to 40 to 30 over the past three seasons.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
5. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
7. Aaron Hill , Toronto (.357 wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips , Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)
9. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)

These middle options were the hardest to rank and you could probably mix numbers four through eight and I wouldn’t argue with you too strongly. Although Cano produced bigger numbers in ’09, you have to be worried about his motivation and consistency. Pedroia is a safer pick but the upside is not as big. Phillips is another player who worries me a bit and I think he’s still a little overrated based on his 30-30 season in ’07. With that said, don’t sneeze at a 20-20 second baseman.

Hill has the potential to be one of the most overrated players in 2010 fantasy drafts, thanks to his 36 homers and 108 RBI. On the plus side, he showed a power boost in ’07, as well, but his ’08 season was ruined by a concussion. With that said, 20 homers and 80 RBI is probably a more realistic projection for the upcoming season. Zobrist is another second baseman who is probably coming off of a career year, but he has some positional flexibility; His minor league numbers did not hint at that type of MLB offense. Uggla is going to hurt you in the batting average category but he’s also the safest bet amongst keystone players to repeat 30 homers.

The Leftovers:
10. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
11. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
12. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)
13. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
15. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

As long as Lopez maintains his second base eligibility (and he shouldn’t become a full-time first baseman in Seattle in ’10), he has value based on his power. I expect a bounce-back season from Kendrick in ’10 but his value is almost all batting average (maybe some runs too). It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays this season and if it will have any effect on Hudson’s play. Polanco is going to be a weak third base fantasy option, but he has value as long as the second-base eligibility remains; He’ll benefit greatly from hitting ahead of Utley and Howard. Stewart has the potential to offer versatility on your roster with the ability to play second base and third base (as well as the outfield in some leagues). Weeks is a wild card.

Up Next: The Third Basemen